International Signings This Week...

[Lucky Jim]

LOL...keep thinking you are smart as you think you are.

You realize that you call people dumb, foolish, idiotic, etc. all of the time, right?

Here's a good one:

No offense but how stupid are you?

[Sports Guy]

You realize that you call people dumb, foolish, idiotic, etc. all of the time, right?

Here's a good one:

If the shoe fits....

[mweb]

There are over a billion people living in China...I am sure there are a couple of people playing it there already.

There's over a billion people in India, and at least they play cricket. So should we go there to?

[wickedwitch]

He said we are spending an additional $1M this year on top of what we spent last year on international scouting, facilities, and signings.

And I don't understand why it can't be more than that.

I've defended the FO on being conservative on FA signings largely because I hope that money would be invested in other areas. But that doesn't appear to be the case.

[Lucky Jim]

Really? The claim is that ML FAs are better/safer investments, but that's not true if you can't make the "easy" decisions. Not saying it's determinative, but to shrug it off is suspect.

Let's break it down:

If you can't "make the 'easy' decisions" with MLB FAs (which are more tangible and less projection) is there a reason to think you can make good signing decisions of international FAs?

I mean, obviously all decision-making risk involves a baseline level of competence. I would argue that if you're using Atkins as your baseline there's no reason to think that our incompetence wouldn't inject even more risk into an already riskier venture.

That's the fundamental problem. Are you assuming idiocy in the MLB FA market, but competence in the Int'l FA market? And if so, why?

In the end, teams make mistakes. Atkins was a big one.

Driving a car is safer than driving a motorcycle. But, if I drive the car recklessly I could kill someone, including myself. Would you recommend that, having had a catastrophic auto accident due to my own negligence, that it supports the "safe" purchase of a motorcycle?

[Lucky Jim]

If the shoe fits....

I'm just questioning your skills as a cobbler, big guy.

[Mackus]

And I don't understand why it can't be more than that.

I've defended the FO on being conservative on FA signings largely because I hope that money would be invested in other areas. But that doesn't appear to be the case.

This was a hypothetical question Hoosiers made up to try and get an answer from SG. Its not an indication of anything the Orioles are doing, good or bad.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, the interesting thing is my point was essentially what Drungo said and yet, you say that Hoosiers and yiourself had the same point..Pretty laughable.

And yes, I think it is very likely you don't understand a lot because of the way you butt in and misrepresent arguments.

I think my point of view is pretty much in line with both Jim's and Hoosier's. I don't see where we split - we all think the Orioles need to step up their presence in international markets, but need to do it in a way that makes sense and focuses on long-term improvements.

[DrungoHazewood]

There's over a billion people in India, and at least they play cricket. So should we go there to?

Absolutely.

[Lucky Jim]

I think my point of view is pretty much in line with both Jim's and Hoosier's. I don't see where we split - we all think the Orioles need to step up their presence in international markets, but need to do it in a way that makes sense and focuses on long-term improvements.

I thought we were largely in line. Though you might enjoy innovation a bit more than I do.

For someone with an MFA, I'm not very imaginative.

[Stotle]

Let's break it down:

If you can't "make the 'easy' decisions" with MLB FAs (which are more tangible and less projection) is there a reason to think you can make good signing decisions of international FAs?

I mean, obviously all decision-making risk involves a baseline level of competence. I would argue that if you're using Atkins as your baseline there's no reason to think that our incompetence wouldn't inject even more risk into an already riskier venture.

That's the fundamental problem. Are you assuming idiocy in the MLB FA market, but competence in the Int'l FA market? And if so, why?

In the end, teams make mistakes. Atkins was a big one.

Driving a car is safer than driving a motorcycle. But, if I drive the car recklessly I could kill someone, including myself. Would you recommend that, having had a catastrophic auto accident due to my own negligence, that it supports the "safe" purchase of a motorcycle?

Incorrect analysis, in my opinion. First, different "decision makers" in each venue. Not the guy pulling the trigger, but the people doing the analysis and presenting the arguments. San Francisco has drafted very well the last three years and made plenty of questionable ML moves. Why? Amateur scouting is better than analysis being used by whoever controls ML roster/budget.

Regarding the car/motorcycle, I think it's more of:

My kid is 16 (still a good 16 years and five months away) and wants to buy a motorcycle. I think a car is safer and the better focus for him. He crashes the continually crashes the riding lawnmower. I now question whether he should have a license of any type.

[Tony-OH]

Is there any universe where $3.15 million for Sano is not a better investment than $4.5 million for Atkins? Not saying BAL could have had Sano, but the idea that BAL is safer investing in ML free agents only works if you invest wisely in ML free agents, no?

Point match, Stotle!

Seriously, we can talk all day about risk vs reward, but clearly if you are willing to spend $4.5 Million for one year of Garrett Atkins than you should be willing to risk $3.15 million for a Sano.

We were willing to go to $20 million for Teixiera so the O's have the money. If they were re-investing the money that Teixiera did not take and putting that into international signings we would have a lot more talent in the minor league system right now and things would look a little better.

So where did that money go?

[mweb]

Absolutely.

That's fine, but I think LJ and Hoosiers make good points about not needing to be the first in China (which would apply to India too) and that if we assume the budget isn't going to go up significantly, perhaps doing what NMS and SG seem to want in China and lets now include India may not be the best use of that money.

Now, if you triple the international investment, that would be different, and perhaps is what they should do, but it's not likely.

Right now I'm more concerned with catching up in Latin America and Japan than I am with being among the first in China and/or India.

[DrungoHazewood]

I thought we were largely in line. Though you might enjoy innovation a bit more than I do.

For someone with an MFA, I'm not very imaginative.

Yea, we probably differ in pace. I'd have a scout on every continent* beating the bushes for athletes who might be ballplayers, and sending Boog to India with a load of cardamom-and-turmeric-spiked BBQ to convert cricketers.

But I think most of our differences with the other folks in this thread, SG included, are of pace. Sometimes it's not possible to do everything at 125% effort.

* Yes, I'd look in the various research stations in Antarctica.

[Lucky Jim]

Incorrect analysis, in my opinion. First, different "decision makers" in each venue. Not the guy pulling the trigger, but the people doing the analysis and presenting the arguments. San Francisco has drafted very well the last three years and made plenty of questionable ML moves. Why? Amateur scouting is better than analysis being used by whoever controls ML roster/budget.

Regarding the car/motorcycle, I think it's more of:

My kid is 16 (still a good 16 years and five months away) and wants to buy a motorcycle. I think a car is safer and the better focus for him. He crashes the continually crashes the riding lawnmower. I now question whether he should have a license of any type.

It's a limited analysis. I'm not sure it's incorrect. And, in fact, you answered the hypothetical:

Are you assuming idiocy in the MLB FA market, but competence in the Int'l FA market? And if so, why?

I asked that question because cognizant that the scouting was done by two different departments. Whether that firewall was enough to tilt you one way over the other was at its heart.

Now, I don't think that mismanaging a FA signing changes the overall risk-reward differences between the two markets. First, we've had very limited success with any players from the DR, which means that we have no track record of success. Which means that, firewall or not, there's no history of sound decision-making there.

Now, if we assume that changes can be made to improve this and assume that the Orioles' FA signings are defined not by relative smart ones, but by their worst decision, then sure: the Int'l FA market will be less risky that the MLB FA market.

I'd rather not assume a peculiar incompetence to the O's FO, not only because I don't see it, but also because it seems incredibly pessmistic. If we're so bad at signing MLB FAs that they become riskier than allegedly 16 year old kids from the DR then we really need not bother with either. We're screwed.