Stuff

[rolliefingers]

Why is everyone making Abreu out to be like he's 46 years old? He's 32. THIRTY-TWO.

That's not that old. Plus he's having the best OBP year of his career right now, despite that "power outage" that you all are so worried about.

Get him and pay him, then sit back and relax as other teams beat each other up for Carlos Lee (who, by the way, is only 2 years younger than Abreu and will probably command 2-3 years longer commitment)

And he's still hitting a sh!t-ton of doubles. Just not HRs.

God, look at those stats.

[Fan4Life]

Instead of picking up the 2008 option for $16M, perhaps Abreu would accept a two year extension for about $11-12M per.

Would that be a better deal for the Orioles? Would Abreu accept that? It would essentially make his contract beyond 2006 be 3/$39M instead of 2/$31M.

Sounds like a reasonable solution from our side... would he go for it...

[rolliefingers]

Instead of picking up the 2008 option for $16M, perhaps Abreu would accept a two year extension for about $11-12M per.

Would that be a better deal for the Orioles? Would Abreu accept that? It would essentially make his contract beyond 2006 be 3/$39M instead of 2/$31M.

I would rather pay him his current option. Who knows what shape he's in by 2009? 35 isn't ancient, but I'd still be a little wary of that. Remember that speed is a big part of his game, both offensively and defensively.

[Witchy_Chick]

I hadn't hear that a "youth movement" is being used as yet another excuse by the organization for doing nothing yet again. But if it is,answer me this. If the Orioles "youth movement" prevents them from signing someone like Abreu, then why did they go out and sign Conine and Millar as regulars, and also try to sign Kenny Lofton? Hmmmmmm?

FWIW -- the "youth movement" angle was speculation by MVNO's in yesterday's thread "From The Sun." I have seen nothing in print about a "youth movement" for the Orioles, nor have I heard any interviews with any Orioles' officials about this angle.

Signing players like Conine and Millar at 38 and 34 years (IIRC) old to one-year contracts (okay, with an option for Conine) at a modest cost, is not the same thing as trading for another 30-something player that still has 3 years on his contract at an extremely high cost. Signing a veteran to a short term contract is completely in line with a youth movement because it doesn't block anyone.

Conine recently turned 40, and will turn 41 (obviously) next year when he will still be with us due to that ridiculous plate appearance option kicking in!!!

You have the correct age on Millar (although he will turn 35 before the end of this season).

Abreu is a player that has very likely reached is peak and is much more likely to decline throughout the rest of his contract than he is to maintain his past standards. If that happens, we're stuck with a huge contract. If Millar sucks, so what, he's gone next year.

I would bet money that Millar is back next year. Veteran presence and all that. Cowboy up.

Would you say Paul Konerko was at or approaching his peak? Reports were that the Orioles offered him 5/$60 million (or was it $65 million?) this past off-season. Furthermore, they reportedly were willing to go to SIX YEARS for him. He would've been 36 at the end of the contract. Why are age and money not issues for that deal, but they are for Abreu? Yeah, it's more money per. But, the length of commitment is three (or four, if the Konerko deal ended up at six years total) years less than the commitment to Abreu.

Konerko deal: 2006-2011 for $60-65 million, player age years 30-36

Abreu trade: remainder 2006, 2007, 2008 for ~ $35 million, player age years 32-34

Not saying no to Abreu or hooray for Conine/Millar. Just saying that the comparison makes no sense. And, that Conine/Millar can be part of a youth movement for the reasons mentioned above. Abreu can not.

I don't understand this statement as Conine and Millar are both currently older than Abreu. Or is this in reference to the "blocking young players" aspect? If so, Conine has almost as many ABs in the OF as he does at 1B (124 in OF, 142 at 1B). Specifically early in the year, he was blocking one of our young players (Markakis) from getting ABs.

Witchy

[davearm]

I think Miggy just laid the gautlet down to the FO. If you are not willing to do this find me a team that IS willing to do what is so obviously needs to be done. I have been thinking about this and Abreu is a perfect fit. Not a terrible long term commitment and a perfect addition to our lineup. Yes he will be overpaid slightly but he should be a safer risk than any pitcher that will be available and I think we do not need to add any Pitchers whatsoever from the FA market. Adding Abreu makes us really have only 1.5 holes as I see it. 1b and backup catcher. Do a deal for a 1b prospect and Move Gibbons to 1b. If the pitching progresses we will be pretty good next year if it doesn't atleast we will score more runs.

It's pretty incredible that the two huge trades currently under discussion (getting Abreu, moving Tejada) suggest complete opposite directions for the organization. The former is a clear win-now-with-veterans move, and the latter is a get-young-and-rebuild move.

If there's any truth to all of this speculation, then the O's are at a gigantic fork in the road. Hopefully they pick left or right, instead of heading straight ahead and into the ditch by doing nothing.

[Fan4Life]

I think Miggy just laid the gautlet down to the FO. If you are not willing to do this find me a team that IS willing to do what is so obviously needs to be done. I have been thinking about this and Abreu is a perfect fit. Not a terrible long term commitment and a perfect addition to our lineup. Yes he will be overpaid slightly but he should be a safer risk than any pitcher that will be available and I think we do not need to add any Pitchers whatsoever from the FA market. Adding Abreu makes us really have only 1.5 holes as I see it. 1b and backup catcher. Do a deal for a 1b prospect and Move Gibbons to 1b. If the pitching progresses we will be pretty good next year if it doesn't atleast we will score more runs.

My thoughts exactly. This is right on. I think Tejada with his comments in the press has said make this deal or trade me. Then, we see MLBtraderumors.com with new Tejada to the Angels talks.. this saddens me as while I'm not totally against trading Tejada in the right deal, the fact that the FO would lean that direction over obtaining Abreu tells me I am going to be waiting that much longer to have a team in Baltimore I can be excited about. and FYI.... I'm already tired of waiting.... and judging by this years attendance figures, I'm not alone.

[rolliefingers]

It's pretty incredible that the two huge trades currently under discussion (getting Abreu, moving Tejada) suggest complete opposite directions for the organization. The former is a clear win-now-with-veterans move, and the latter is a get-young-and-rebuild move.

If there's any truth to all of this speculation, then the O's are at a gigantic fork in the road. Hopefully they pick left or right, instead of heading straight ahead and into the ditch by doing nothing.

Well, I'm sure you know what most of us pessimists think they'll do - nothing.

Very good analysis though, I was thinking the same thing earlier today.

If we were to get Abreu, we would have to either hope that all the young pitching becomes at least average and respectable as of next year, or go out and spend money on pitching (Schmidt). Abreu would make for a pretty clear three-year window to win with the current club. Hopefully the pitching can help with that, and hopefully we continue to build up the farm so that we have some guys ready to take over for Tejada, Abreu, Mora, Hernandez, etc. in 2009 or so.

Is Angelos willing to go for it? That's the big question.

If he's not, though, trading Tejada might be the best option. But you have all these guys under contract for the next three years or so, so you're right Dave - this is pretty much a crossroads for the team.

[davearm]

Good points stallion.

The state of the O's young pitching suggests the trade Tejada route might be best. If they keep him and get Abreu, they'd almost have to go get an established starter or two. I don't think a rotation centered on Bedard, Cabrera, Penn, Loewen can realistically be expected to carry you to the playoffs for at least a few years.

[Fan4Life]

Good points stallion.

The state of the O's young pitching suggests the trade Tejada route might be best. If they keep him and get Abreu, they'd almost have to go get an established starter or two. I don't think a rotation centered on Bedard, Cabrera, Penn, Loewen can realistically be expected to carry you to the playoffs for at least a few years.

Well, if you can put together an offense than averages 5.5+ runs per game, I think you can make it with those starters. If not, then you have to ask yoruself where is your money better spent, on pitching, or offensive help.. obviously there are opinions on both sides of that fence..

[rolliefingers]

Good points stallion.

The state of the O's young pitching suggests the trade Tejada route might be best. If they keep him and get Abreu, they'd almost have to go get an established starter or two. I don't think a rotation centered on Bedard, Cabrera, Penn, Loewen can realistically be expected to carry you to the playoffs for at least a few years.

Well, Bedard seems to have made "The Leap". It's not completely crazy to think that a couple of our guys could give us a staff similar to this year's Angel staff. It's also not likely, either. That's why I brought up Schmidt, and really, I cannot see PGA eating Abreu's contract AND signing Schmidt AND getting the solid bench guys that we'd need for depth (Dellucci, good backup C, Marrero, etc.).

Seems like a longshot to me.

[LADANK]

So essentially we're at two crossroads Pick up Abreau and compete now or Trade Tejada to rebuild. Well you know what the Future is NOW. Get on the phone with the Phillies ask if you can negotiate something with Abreau's Agent. This trade makes us competitive for the next THREE YEARS. The Pitching will be addition by subtraction. Lose Lopez, Chen, Ortiz and Hawkins and the youth will carry you through. Benson helped Beddard. Beddard is your ace, Benson your number 2. Time to bring up Loewen and Penn and i'll think you will be pleasantly surprised. And i beleive Cabrerra will work things out. If not use Cabrerra and Olsen for a deal to acquire Willis or possible Miguel Cabrerra. But future is now before i young players become old.

[Fan4Life]

Well, Bedard seems to have made "The Leap". It's not completely crazy to think that a couple of our guys could give us a staff similar to this year's Angel staff. It's also not likely, either. That's why I brought up Schmidt, and really, I cannot see PGA eating Abreu's contract AND signing Schmidt AND getting the solid bench guys that we'd need for depth (Dellucci, good backup C, Marrero, etc.).

Seems like a longshot to me.

If we can trade Benson and Gibbons as part of a deal for Abreu, that would offset a considerable amount of the cost.. maybe thats not realistic, but those numbers work alot better.

[elextrano8]

It's pretty incredible that the two huge trades currently under discussion (getting Abreu, moving Tejada) suggest complete opposite directions for the organization. The former is a clear win-now-with-veterans move, and the latter is a get-young-and-rebuild move.

There is a third option, I think. Those moves would make some sense if: A) The FO has soured on Tejada and wants to move him no matter what and B) The team views Abreu as a replacement for Tejada's offense. In effect saying that the current course is correct, but they don't want Tejada to be a part of it, for some reason. I don't really think its the right way to go, but depending on who we got for Tejada (and who we gave up for Abreu), that could lead to an interesting mix on the team.

[Fan4Life]

I think Miggy just laid the gautlet down to the FO. If you are not willing to do this find me a team that IS willing to do what is so obviously needs to be done. I have been thinking about this and Abreu is a perfect fit. Not a terrible long term commitment and a perfect addition to our lineup. Yes he will be overpaid slightly but he should be a safer risk than any pitcher that will be available and I think we do not need to add any Pitchers whatsoever from the FA market. Adding Abreu makes us really have only 1.5 holes as I see it. 1b and backup catcher. Do a deal for a 1b prospect and Move Gibbons to 1b. If the pitching progresses we will be pretty good next year if it doesn't atleast we will score more runs.

There is a third option, I think. Those moves would make some sense if: A) The FO has soured on Tejada and wants to move him no matter what and B) The team views Abreu as a replacement for Tejada's offense. In effect saying that the current course is correct, but they don't want Tejada to be a part of it, for some reason. I don't really think its the right way to go, but depending on who we got for Tejada (and who we gave up for Abreu), that could lead to an interesting mix on the team.

As Flosman pointed out and I agree, you need 2-3 Tejada/Abreu caliber players in your lineup to have any shot to compete in the AL East. Trading Tejada and picking up Abreu doesn't do anything to solve that equation in the near term and gambles that anyone we pickup for Tejada will pan out as projected in the long term.

[mikezpen]

Getting Abreu w/an option gets him for 3 years. That's playing for tomorrow as well as for today. And tell me who he would be blocking, Nolan Reimold who's hitting .260-something in A ball?? And for those squeamish about the age thing for a 32 year-old, remember that we signed 34 year-old Melvin Mora for 3 years.

I agree w/the fork in the road thinking. Getting one of Philly's guys not only gives our lineup a desperately-needed power bat, but it also has franchise-wide impliactions. It mite also help attract other FA's. It shows the Orioles are willing to spend money and creates a lineup a lot of FA pitchers mite not mind pitching for.

It also keeps us out of the ridiculius off season bidding wars for Lee, Sorianio,etc., that we'll have absolutely no chance of winning-PARTICULARLY if we let another opportunity go by and do nothing.

FORK IN THE ROAD, INDEED.