Rendon and an Ace?

[tilgaham]

No.

Rutabaga

[allstar1579]

Your right...it really got in the way of the Nats and the Strasburg negotiations.

The Storen deal was agreed to before the draft, and Storen was a late first round prospect. 18-25 range. They got their deserved pick, but then lost out on a top 10 prospect for a late round guy. That's why they took a closer, because a late round closer in the first can move fast and have plenty of success, whereas gambling on a late first round prospect at another position wouldn't be as safe.

I guess the point is, you can have a top 3 prospect two straight years, or you can have a top 3 guy, and a late first round guy another year. You aren't going to get one of those top round talents, especially college guys who have time left because they can just go back into the draft and not lose anything, to sign for anything less than a small country. They know exactly how much leverage they have with you losing the pick if you don't sign them, and they will probably ask for $10m plus and stand hard since the team has everything to lose. That's a good $4m overpayment to take one of them a year later versus just signing Manny and getting him going.

[H0smash]

The Storen deal was agreed to before the draft, and Storen was a late first round prospect. 18-25 range. They got their deserved pick, but then lost out on a top 10 prospect for a late round guy. That's why they took a closer, because a late round closer in the first can move fast and have plenty of success, whereas gambling on a late first round prospect at another position wouldn't be as safe.

I guess the point is, you can have a top 3 prospect two straight years, or you can have a top 3 guy, and a late first round guy another year. You aren't going to get one of those top round talents, especially college guys who have time left because they can just go back into the draft and not lose anything, to sign for anything less than a small country. They know exactly how much leverage they have with you losing the pick if you don't sign them, and they will probably ask for $10m plus and stand hard since the team has everything to lose. That's a good $4m overpayment to take one of them a year later versus just signing Manny and getting him going.

Yes but Machado won't likely be ready for the Majors until 2014 at the earliest, one of the pitchers would likely be ready a year earlier, and I believe you are getting more of a sure-thing. I have heard that Cole, Purke, and Jungmann are all very likely TOR SPs, while Machado may have to move to 3B, and it is unknown how much of his power will develop. On top of all that, I'm not sure how confident I am in our system to develop a SS/position player out of HS, whereas the system wouldn't really have to develop these guys since they are close to finished products. Just my opinion, but I think when you SUCK you have to go outside-the-box to find a way to become successful again.

[allstar1579]

Yes but Machado won't likely be ready for the Majors until 2014 at the earliest, one of the pitchers would likely be ready a year earlier, and I believe you are getting more of a sure-thing. I have heard that Cole, Purke, and Jungmann are all very likely TOR SPs, while Machado may have to move to 3B, and it is unknown how much of his power will develop. On top of all that, I'm not sure how confident I am in our system to develop a SS/position player out of HS, whereas the system wouldn't really have to develop these guys since they are close to finished products. Just my opinion, but I think when you SUCK you have to go outside-the-box to find a way to become successful again.

The shape we are in, we should want guys further away, we don't want guys hitting the majors, and starting service clocks for them to get out of town until we have more help to offer them.

Either way it's just not worth the price and you don't want to show potential FA's that you aren't even serious enough about improving to sign your own draft picks. As tempting as it may be because of the top level talent next year, you really just don't want to put yourself behind that 8-ball. There is nothing stopping these guys from asking for $20m, going back into the draft and then coming out in 2012 when they would be the TOP talent out there.

[H0smash]

I wouldn't expect us to take the highest ranked pitcher with that 4th pick, instead looking for someone that is easier to sign, but even if we did have the guts to take the highest rated player in each slot, the part I bolded above is impossible.

Well I know that it's not going to happen with the Orioles being the way they are, however, I think the O's would be better off doing this, even if we have to spend $4 million more than we would have had to to sign Machado. I don't think he'll be an above-average defensive SS, and I don't think he'll hit 20 HRs a year. If he can't do those things we'd be better off getting one of these pitchers, and trading another one of our pitching prospects to grab a SS that's almost ML-ready.

Coming up with a contract that both sides agree with isn't the only thinging pushing back the signing dates. If a deal is more than a little bit over the suggested slot, Bud Selig & MLB won't approve the contract until the signing deadline for fear of giving everyone else a new baseline with time to negotiate off of.

Well I didn't know that that's how the contracts worked but even if the contract wasn't approved until the deadline, as long as we could sign the pitcher (no. 4 overall), he would still be ready, most likely, before Machado would have been.

[allstar1579]

Well I know that it's not going to happen with the Orioles being the way they are, however, I think the O's would be better off doing this, even if we have to spend $4 million more than we would have had to to sign Machado. I don't think he'll be an above-average defensive SS, and I don't think he'll hit 20 HRs a year. If he can't do those things we'd be better off getting one of these pitchers, and trading another one of our pitching prospects to grab a SS that's almost ML-ready.

Well I didn't know that that's how the contracts worked but even if the contract wasn't approved until the deadline, as long as we could sign the pitcher (no. 4 overall), he would still be ready, most likely, before Machado would have been.

Yeah but SS prospects cost more than SP prospects, you won't be able to get one for a pitching prospect. Premium positions and all. If you don't wanna keep MM you'd be better off hoping he does well next year, and when he starts getting some buzz trade HIM for someone else's top prospect.

[H0smash]

The shape we are in, we should want guys further away, we don't want guys hitting the majors, and starting service clocks for them to get out of town until we have more help to offer them.

I see where you're coming from... but at the same time, Rendon and this pitcher could be ready (potentially and barring injury) by 2013. If they came up then, You're rotation could be: Matusz, Arrieta, Guthrie, Britton, and Purke/Jungmann, which by then should be a very, very good rotation. Then you have:

C - Wieters

1B - Bell/FA

2B - Roberts/Hoes/FA

3B - Rendon

SS - Trade Tillman or another SP prospect for an above-avg. SS

RF - Markakis

CF - A. Jones

LF - Pie/Reimold/FA

I'm sorry, but I think that team would be ready to compete, and adding Purke/Jungmann to that rotation would make us a lot better, especially if they came on like Hanson did.

Either way it's just not worth the price and you don't want to show potential FA's that you aren't even serious enough about improving to sign your own draft picks. As tempting as it may be because of the top level talent next year, you really just don't want to put yourself behind that 8-ball. There is nothing stopping these guys from asking for $20m, going back into the draft and then coming out in 2012 when they would be the TOP talent out there.

I can see where you're coming from with the bolded, however, the italicized is something that is irrelevant, no good player would want to come here unless we overpaid, regardless of if we sign Machado.

[H0smash]

Bad idea in my opinion, everybody on this board and every media outlet that has any knowledge on our farm system knows we have great pitching prospects but no hitting prospects. We might not have that ace, but I do not see what the problem with a (1) 2-2-2-3-3 type rotation.

Where our problem been is our left side of the infield, and now that we have a potential solution you guys want to give it away. Rendon and Machado could be a great tandem at the left side of the infield if they furfill there potential.

Plus anything could happen between now and June, any one of those pitchers could have a bad year or worse sustain an injury. (2) Next thing you know we give up a potentially all star caliber SS for a MOR pitcher.

(1) While I agree that that would not be a bad rotation, it's not going to win a WS, I'd really like to get a young ace, and I think next year's crop of SPs has A LOT of potential.

(2) Of course this is likely, however, there will also be some very good HS pitchers who improve their stock, we would have lots of options. I just feel that the first round next year will be a lot better than this year. Maybe I'm wrong, we can come back to this later if I turn out to be wrong.

[allstar1579]

I see where you're coming from... but at the same time, Rendon and this pitcher could be ready (potentially and barring injury) by 2013. If they came up then, You're rotation could be: Matusz, Arrieta, Guthrie, Britton, and Purke/Jungmann, which by then should be a very, very good rotation. Then you have:

C - Wieters

1B - Bell/FA

2B - Roberts/Hoes/FA

3B - Rendon

SS - Trade Tillman or another SP prospect for an above-avg. SS

RF - Markakis

CF - A. Jones

LF - Pie/Reimold/FA

I'm sorry, but I think that team would be ready to compete, and adding Purke/Jungmann to that rotation would make us a lot better, especially if they came on like Hanson did.

I can see where you're coming from with the bolded, however, the italicized is something that is irrelevant, no good player would want to come here unless we overpaid, regardless of if we sign Machado.

Guthrie will be gone by then, I think that is Roberts last year, I wouldn't bet that Bell can play 1B, I don't see it in him. That's an awful lot of faith that we can get a SS prospect, like I said they are really overvalued, no one likes to deal them.

And like I said there is a really good chance that one of those pitchers wouldn't sign since they really control their own destiny being a replacement pick, it's a really hopeful approach, I just don't think it would happen.

Not trying to rain on your parade or anything, I'd love if it worked out, I just can't see it happening.

[H0smash]

I think its a bad idea for a number of reasons. 1 being that Rendon alone will cost atleast $6M or even higher. Then, you are gonna have agents trying to compare the top college arms next year to Prior and Stras to get max money for them. I would say between Rendon and Cole/Purke/Jungmann you are gonna be talking atleast $12M. Expect to see the O's pay that much? Plus, you lose a year of development time for Machado who really isn't a bad pick at all. He has patience at the plate, power potential, a very quick short swing, good fluid motions at SS with a very good arm. He is worth the pick...

Yes we need an ace, but we need to realize that these pitchers developing into aces isn't cut and dry. IMO Purke doesn't look like a true ace. Cole has the ceiling of one, but also has a ways to go to become one and the adjustments necessary to become one are pretty tough obstacles. Jungmann IMO has the best chance because he projects to have good comnmand with plus pitches across the board....

Our best chance to grab an ace(if we are set on Rendon) went out the window in the last draft when Taillon was picked first and other potential aces went afterwards. And the ones who went after 1:3 are far from slam dunks, but IMO Harvey has true ace potential, but was knocked down due to inconsistency in his track record, but IMO he was the best draft eligible SP prospect from college last year....

Of course I don't expect the O's to spend that much, are you kidding? Just because I think it's a good idea, doesn't mean I think the O's would actually be willing to do it.

Yes you lose a year for Machado, but if you get one of the College Pitchers then they would move fast and be up before Machado would have been ready. I hope you're right about him, cause I'm pretty sure we'll sign him. I feel like we should have had the #1 pick in '09, the #2 pick this year, and next year we could have been anywhere in the top 5 and it would have been okay. We seem to pick the worst place to finish haha.

[H0smash]

(1) Guthrie will be gone by then, I think that is (2)Roberts last year, I wouldn't bet that (3)Bell can play 1B, I don't see it in him. (4)That's an awful lot of faith that we can get a SS prospect, like I said they are really overvalued, no one likes to deal them.

And like I said there is a really good chance that one of those pitchers wouldn't sign since they really control their own destiny being a replacement pick, it's a really hopeful approach, I just don't think it would happen.

Not trying to rain on your parade or anything, I'd love if it worked out, I just can't see it happening.

Hey, I'm not taking it personally or anything, I'd rather have actual baseball conversation than just saying how much we need to trade for a "big bat" or something.

(1) Guthrie might get extended if he has another good year this year, he seems to like it here and he's not an ace, so he shouldn't be too difficult to re-sign. I don't find it too outlandish that we'd extend him, he also wouldn't be terribly difficult to replace IMO.

(2) I'm not too confident we can rely on him again, but I have some confidence in Hoes. Also, you can find some decent 2Bman on the FA market.

(3) Maybe he can, maybe he can't. If he's good at 3B, then we can trade him for a 1Bman/SS/pitcher when Rendon's ready to take over if we don't like Bell's chances at 1B.

(4) I know how hard it can be to get a SS prospect, what if someone like the Rangers, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, etc. has a good/very good SS prospect? What if we offered something like Tillman and Berry? For an ML-ready above average SS prospect, for a team that doesn't need a SS, that's a pretty fair deal.

I understand this is all tough, but I just like the chances of one of these pitchers/our team's chances better than Machado.

[allstar1579]

Of course I don't expect the O's to spend that much, are you kidding? Just because I think it's a good idea, doesn't mean I think the O's would actually be willing to do it.

Yes you lose a year for Machado, but if you get one of the College Pitchers then they would move fast and be up before Machado would have been ready. I hope you're right about him, cause I'm pretty sure we'll sign him. I feel like we should have had the #1 pick in '09, the #2 pick this year, and next year we could have been anywhere in the top 5 and it would have been okay. We seem to pick the worst place to finish haha.

I think we'd be better off keeping our picks but spending $15-20m per year and drafting the best talent available each year. We could have had Machado, Workman, Paxton, Cole and Wahl all in this draft alone if we were willing to spend.

Could have had Matzek last year....you get the point.

[H0smash]

I think we'd be better off keeping our picks but spending $15-20m per year and drafting the best talent available each year. We could have had Machado, Workman, Paxton, Cole and Wahl all in this draft alone if we were willing to spend.

Could have had Matzek last year....you get the point.

OH I AGREE and if we had taken Matzek last year, I probably wouldn't consider this, since I would expect big things from Matzek. I do not expect as much from Hobgood, that's for sure.

I still cannot understand how we don't outspend everyone in the draft, our ML payroll isn't that high and we get the revenue sharing, plus we don't spend that much in International Signings. It's just disappointing and frustrating to tell you the truth.

[allstar1579]

Hey, I'm not taking it personally or anything, I'd rather have actual baseball conversation than just saying how much we need to trade for a "big bat" or something.

(1) Guthrie might get extended if he has another good year this year, he seems to like it here and he's not an ace, so he shouldn't be too difficult to re-sign. I don't find it too outlandish that we'd extend him, he also wouldn't be terribly difficult to replace IMO.

(2) I'm not too confident we can rely on him again, but I have some confidence in Hoes. Also, you can find some decent 2Bman on the FA market.

(3) Maybe he can, maybe he can't. If he's good at 3B, then we can trade him for a 1Bman/SS/pitcher when Rendon's ready to take over if we don't like Bell's chances at 1B.

(4) I know how hard it can be to get a SS prospect, what if someone like the Rangers, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, etc. has a good/very good SS prospect? What if we offered something like Tillman and Berry? For an ML-ready above average SS prospect, for a team that doesn't need a SS, that's a pretty fair deal.

I understand this is all tough, but I just like the chances of one of these pitchers/our team's chances better than Machado.

Ok good, I know sometimes I come off a little snippy because I'm thinking too much about my response and don't phrase things that well.

Guts is replaceable but I feel like he'll get traded off before we need to think about that anyway. Probably this season, while he's got max value. Roberts/Hoes/Miclat/Moore, someone will be at 2B, it's the leadoff spot thats harder to replace. Bell is a great player hitting from the LH side and isn't bad in the field, but either needs to learn to hit lefties or start hitting them from the LH side or he's never going to reach what he can be.

SS prospects are treated like gold. We can come up with all kinds of fair, logical trades for blocked ones around the league, but teams seem to hold on to them and if they trade anyone it's their existing one as they generally degrade offensively or defensively (Hardy, Crosby, Betancourt etc.). If one gets ready, a team will just bring them up as a UTL guy until one of the other middle inf. breaks down or gets traded. That's just how it always is for some reason.

[allstar1579]

OH I AGREE and if we had taken Matzek last year, I probably wouldn't consider this, since I would expect big things from Matzek. I do not expect as much from Hobgood, that's for sure.

I still cannot understand how we don't outspend everyone in the draft, our ML payroll isn't that high and we get the revenue sharing, plus we don't spend that much in International Signings. It's just disappointing and frustrating to tell you the truth.

Couldn't agree more. We could spend $50m on payroll compared to other teams' $100m, but if we are spending another $25m in the draft and Int'l signings each year, I GUARANTEE we are right up there with those teams and keeping talent coming in by trading players that get too expensive.

Guys like Iglesias in BOS, and Viciedo in CHW are going to be NASTY, and we didn't even try to sign them.