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Would You Trade Matusz and Tillman or Arietta for Cahill?


Old#5fan

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Cahill is very good. I'd probably trade Matusz for him even up. But I doubt I'd give up Matusz and one of the other young pitchers to get him.

And by the way, I think the question is a good one, regardless of who asked it.

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SG, where did you get your groundball rates from. MLB has Cahill at 1.45 last year and 1.77 this year. Of course, this year, Cahill is pitching at the age that Matusz was last year. You weren't one of those guys arguing that Tillman was as good as Britton because he pitched at a level when he was younger than Britton, were you?

They were on ESPN.

I am just using career numbers because neither has much of a sample size to do too much.

Last year, Cahill threw 178 IP, which is great...But his K rate and K/BB ratio were awful. He must improve on that.

I don't really know what else you want to use...Matusz is ahead of him in basically every significant and predicting stat. Cahill is younger and gets more grounders..But he doesn't miss as many bats, doesn't throw as many strikes, doesn't get the K's, walks more hitters and gives up more homers.

I agree that age difference is important but then again, Cahill has 20 more starts and while it is impressive that he has 20 more starts than Matusz being a year younger(Matusz was a college guy), it still means that he has more to go on in terms of improvements and things like that.

If you look at them through the same numbers of innings and stats, Matusz comes out ahead that way too I am sure.

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They were on ESPN.

I am just using career numbers because neither has much of a sample size to do too much.

Last year, Cahill threw 178 IP, which is great...But his K rate and K/BB ratio were awful. He must improve on that.

I don't really know what else you want to use...Matusz is ahead of him in basically every significant and predicting stat. Cahill is younger and gets more grounders..But he doesn't miss as many bats, doesn't throw as many strikes, doesn't get the K's, walks more hitters and gives up more homers.

I agree that age difference is important but then again, Cahill has 20 more starts and while it is impressive that he has 20 more starts than Matusz being a year younger(Matusz was a college guy), it still means that he has more to go on in terms of improvements and things like that.

If you look at them through the same numbers of innings and stats, Matusz comes out ahead that way too I am sure.

I never thought I'd see the day, but I just got this message:

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Sports Guy again.

:eek:
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Cahill has shown a lot of improvement from last year to this year, so yeah, in this case I think that year is important. Cahill, at age 22, is way ahead of where Matusz was at age 22. Not to mention, that Matusz hasn't made significant imrovement this year. Cahill with 57 hits in 75 IP. Matusz with 104 hits in 93 inings. SportsGuy will clame that's all luck.

Cahill has a BABIP of 235....That is lucky.

Matusz has a BABIP of 324..That is unlucky.

Now, Cahill has a LD% of 4% better than BMat this year, so that is a big reason...Still, the BABIP numbers will likely normalize somewhat and that will get closer.

Not to mention, Cahill has a better IF defense behind him than Matusz does and watching Matusz in his starts, he has obviously pitched into a lot of bad luck.

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Cahill has shown a lot of improvement from last year to this year, so yeah, in this case I think that year is important. Cahill, at age 22, is way ahead of where Matusz was at age 22. Not to mention, that Matusz hasn't made significant imrovement this year. Cahill with 57 hits in 75 IP. Matusz with 104 hits in 93 inings. SportsGuy will clame that's all luck.

A year age difference does not matter. Matusz was drafted at a higher age anyway.

Matusz has less games in his career than Cahill did last year alone. Not to mention that the park Cahill is in is very beneficial. I'll agree that Matusz has some struggles, but there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't put up better or equal numbers playing in Oakland with a better supporting cast and ballpark.

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A year age difference does not matter. Matusz was drafted at a higher age anyway.

Matusz has less games in his career than Cahill did last year alone. Not to mention that the park Cahill is in is very beneficial. I'll agree that Matusz has some struggles, but there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't put up better or equal numbers playing in Oakland with a better supporting cast and ballpark.

You can't discount the age difference...A year is still a year...What Cahill has done is very significant and the fact that he has done it at a younger age than Matusz does mean something...But he isn't showing that he is better than BMat.

Basically, if you prefer Cahill, you prefer him because of age and groundball rate.

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This seems like a good time to check in on Josh Reddick's progress towards overtaking Ted Williams (after all, OldFan said he played like him). Wait, what, he's in AAA and hitting .209? With 7 homers and a .659 OPS? NO WAI!

This thread does actually ask a decent question, but the whole Suzuki/Wieters thing later on just ruins it.

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You can't discount the age difference...A year is still a year...What Cahill has done is very significant and the fact that he has done it at a younger age than Matusz does mean something...But he isn't showing that he is better than BMat.

Basically, if you prefer Cahill, you prefer him because of age and groundball rate.

I'm not saying I wouldn't love to have Cahill on the O's. I just don't want him at the expense of Matusz. Matusz's projectables show he'll be better down the line according to the stats presented earlier. Both guys are young and have yet to hit their ceilings. In the end, I think Matusz will be better though.

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You lost me here. Cahill is one year younger. Are you going to tell me that using this year's stats, that Matusz is ahead of Cahill? Forget lastyear's for a second. Cahill was 21 and threw a full season. Now he has made some of those improvements while it's questionable whether Matusz has. MLB could be wrong but they have Cahill at a 1.53 career groundball rate with a 1.77 this year. His walks are down and his strikeouts are up as well. His homers allowed are down as well. So all his numbers are improving basically at the age of 22.

Yes, its great that he is showing improvement. But even if you want to go off of just this season:

1) Matusz is averaging more Ip per start...Now, its not much and after tonight, its closer...And, since Cahill missed time early on due to an injury, maybe they held him back some..So, let's just call that even.

2) I already pointed out the BABIP..you don't sem to care about that but you not caring it about doesn't mean it isn't significant.

3) Matusz has seen his BBs go up slightly and his Ks drop slightly thus far but his HRs are down and he is still K'ing more than Cahill and walks are almost identical...and Matusz figures to always be the better strike out pitcher...He throws more strikes and misses more bats.

4) Cahill has a 1.35 ERA at home this year...It is over 4 on the road(although after tonight, it will be down from that). But in a small sample size, it still helps that he is getting help from that park in Oakland..another thing you can't discount.

5) Matusz still is missing more bats, throwing more strikes and getting more first pitch strikes this year compared to Cahill.

6) Matusz has a higher WAR this year and had a higher WAR last year.

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So if Cahill has a 1.10 WHIP this year and Matusz has a 1.44 WHIP this year, we are chalking it up to luck and balllpark?

It depends...You think hits per IP is a significant stat..I don't.

The Orioles defense isn't good and since that effects the hits allowed stat, it is discounted by those that understand advanced stats.

I look more at the walks than the hits allowed.

Now, the one thing that can't be discounted, no matter what the BABIP difference is, is the LD%, which is way on the side of Cahill...That's not luck..That just speaks to how teams are hitting off of him right now...Now, his LD% is way less than last year, so I expect it to go up.

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Cahill is very good. I'd probably trade Matusz for him even up. But I doubt I'd give up Matusz and one of the other young pitchers to get him.

And by the way, I think the question is a good one, regardless of who asked it.

Better watch out, you are in danger of drawing the wrath of VATech. He jumped all over me for this topic as if I was so far beneath him for even asking it you could compare me to a worm about to be plodded on by his size 13's. :eek: Yet, I would ask anybody I know who likes MLB this question in a bar and I am sure it would invoke a lively discussion. Yet he acts like I am some off the wall low life moron for a question that I am glad someone else here actually thinks is good. Thank God we don't have VATECH running this place. It wouldn't be fit for anyone to post anything if it didn't meet HIS approval.:( Some people really either have a distorted view of casual baseball talk or simply don't know how to engage in it with regular folks.)

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Better watch out, you are in danger of drawing the wrath of VATech. He jumped all over me for this topic as if I was so far beneath him for even asking it you could compare me to a worm about to be plodded on by his size 13's. :eek: Yet, I would ask anybody I know who likes MLB this question in a bar and I am sure it would invoke a lively discussion. Yet he acts like I am some off the wall low life moron for a question that I am glad someone else here actually thinks is good. Thank God we don't have VATECH running this place. It wouldn't be fit for anyone to post anything if it didn't meet HIS approval.:(

You wanted to trade Matusz, Tillman or Arrieta, and Wieters for Cahill and Kurt Suzuki.

I guess there's no harm in asking, but you have to understand: it's not a very educated question on an Orioles message board where the majority of people tend to dig deeper into baseball than wins, losses and batting average. To those who pay attention to stats, age, scouting and ceiling, threads like these tend to come across more like a call for attention than a legitimate question.

In a bar, with casual fans, you may actually engage yourself in a conversation. Here, you're not going to accomplish much other than to confuse and bewilder people.

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