Would You Trade Matusz and Tillman or Arietta for Cahill?

[Old#5fan]

You wanted to trade Matusz, Tillman or Arrieta, and Wieters for Cahill and Kurt Suzuki.

I guess there's no harm in asking, but you have to understand: it's not a very educated question on an Orioles message board where the majority of people tend to dig deeper into baseball than wins, losses and batting average. To those who pay attention to stats, age, scouting and ceiling, threads like these tend to come across more like a call for attention than a legitimate question.

In a bar, with casual fans, you may actually engage yourself in a conversation. Here, you're not going to accomplish much other than to confuse and bewilder people.

I disagree but maybe we should ask for a separate category titled (Bar-Room discussions) and one titled Techical Discussions. I would gladly stay out of that category and posters who take themselves as seriously as a heart attack like VA Tech could post without interference by the average bar-room type guy like me in the Techical Discussion Threads?

[dhaze]

Let's trade Nick Markakis for Ryan Sweeney straight up. Did you all watch the game tonight?? Sweeney had FOUR hits! There's a guy who knows how to handle the bat in key situations. Markakis meanwhile managed a measly sac fly and a weak single that barely left the infield -- HoF my butt! Sweeney is also a year younger AND he's taller.

[Old#5fan]

Let's trade Nick Markakis for Ryan Sweeney straight up. Did you all watch the game tonight?? Sweeney had FOUR hits! There's a guy who knows how to handle the bat in key situations. Markakis meanwhile managed a measly sac fly and a weak single that barely left the infield -- HoF my butt! Sweeney is also a year younger AND he's taller.

Sweeney can hit and swings a nice bat but actually Markakis had it a lot tougher as Cahill is better than any Orioles pitcher Oakland could possibly face.

[Sports Guy]

So at age 22, his line drive percentage is down and you don't consider that luck but you expect it to go up because it was higher last year during his rookie season at age 21? So his age 21 season his the benchmark. All stats should regress to that level, becaue that's all he'll ever be. No one gets better.

So, you think he will continue to put up a LD% lower than any LD% off of Lincecum and Halladay have ever given up over a full season?

[BRobinsonfan]

Just tonite but I was also listening to both Palmer and Thorne raving about him and his impressive record at such a young age. Pretty incredible really.

Is that the same Palmer who said Nick should be our All Star rep?

[Carroll County]

Cahill is a nice pitcher, but give me Matusz every time.

Cahill may have a little better stuff, but the chances that Matusz hits (and maintains) his ceiling are better than the chances that Cahill does, IMO. I think he'll have a longer and more consistent career. But you never know.

[ChaosLex]

Is that the same Palmer who said Nick should be our All Star rep?

[BRobinsonfan]

This seems like a good time to check in on Josh Reddick's progress towards overtaking Ted Williams (after all, OldFan said he played like him). Wait, what, he's in AAA and hitting .209? With 7 homers and a .659 OPS? NO WAI!

.

That's hilarious - I'd forgotten about that!

[ledzepp8]

Is that the same Palmer who said Nick should be our All Star rep?

Don't you get it? Stats, opinions and analysis only matter when they pertain to players not named Nick Markakis.

Palmer says Cahill is good = Palmer is a genius

Palmer says Nick should be O's all star = Oldfan ignores this because he has a vendetta and doesn't understand baseball

[Stotle]

Cahill's first 32 starts his ERA was 4.63 with a WHIP of 1.43. Yes he is dramatically better then Matusz. LOL. Don't let the facts get in the way of your opinion?

Indeed laughable. Equally laughable, pretending that stats over the first 24 or 32 games of a pitcher's ML career are highly determinative. As with most things, people who want to be down on Matusz (or Tillman) will jump on it now. If/when one/both of them turns it around, said persons won't be as vocal. Shrug.

I think meaningful analysis of the stats should probably be reserved for the end of the year until a pitcher has a few seasons under his belt. At that point, you can start comparing current stats with career baselines that are actually meaningful. Making bold statements about who you would trade for who after neither pitcher has thrown a full season's worth of games is, well, I can't think of a nice way to say it....a creative approach to evaluation.

[Stotle]

Cahill doesn't have better stuff. I actually think it is a tick worse overall. He does have better command at the moment. I'd give Matusz 20 more starts if I were you. I think your Matusz/Tillman for Cahill post is going to look pretty awful in a few years, but I've been wrong before.

Agreed, and not sure how it could be argued.

[Stotle]

Let's look at some stats, shall we?:

1) Cahill is 22 and Matusz is 23.

2) Cahill has 44 ML starts and Matusz has 24.

3) For his career, Cahill averages 5.04 k/9 IP...Matusz averages 7.03 K/9 IP.

4) Cahill's career K/BB ratio is 1.48...Matusz'ss K/BB is 2.40.

5) They both average 5.7 IP per start thus far.

6) Cahill gets to pitch in Oakland, where his ERA at home is much better than on the road.

7) Cahill's GB ratio is 1.01...Matusz's is .54.

8 ) Cahill's HR rate is 1.24...Matusz's rate is 1.10

9) Cahill throws 60% of his pitches for strikes(below league average)...Matusz throws 65% of his pitches for strikes..well above league average.

10) Cahill throws 3.89 P/PA...Matusz throws 3.81 P/PA.

11) Cahill has a 14% swinging strike %...Matusz has a 16%...League average is 15%.

12) Cahill throws 55% first strikes...Matusz throws 61% first strikes.

So, thus far in their careers, where Cahill is younger but has more experience, Matusz beats him in every category except GB rate.

I just went back and started this from the beginning. I can't believe this didn't end the discussion (and I like Cahill a lot). I could potentially see moving Matusz for Cahill. Matusz AND one of Tillman/Arrieta for Cahill? Beane would have Trevor suited-up in orange and black before MacPhail could hang-up the phone...

[byrdz]

Do you post this kind of stuff just to see how many responses you get?

Yes and as you can see it works.

[byrdz]

And by the way, I think the question is a good one, regardless of who asked it.

Yeah I think that's why he followed it up with his second suggestion which was totally irrelevant to the first. He realized the the first post wasn't wacky enough to stir the pot so he sprinkled this little baby in there for good measure.

I would also trade Matusz, Wieters and one of either Tillman or Arrieta for Cahill and Suzuki but doubt the A's would go for it.

Either way, these deals would equal the A's taking us to the cleaners.

[Rex Thunder]

I wouldn't trade Matusz for him but I would rather have him than Tillman and Arrieta.

I would rather have Brett Anderson and Cahill vs Matusz and one of those 2 though.

I was gonna mention Anderson too. If he gets past his arm troubles this year, his stuff is dominating. I'd love it if Matusz could match Anderson's production when both are healthy.