Top 10 Picks

[flashjordnk]

So if the Orioles sign all top 10 picks they made this year...as the Sun indicates they think they canhere.

Does that make this year's draft a success? And if so, how much of a success.

Does this change the minds of people that weren't so high on this draft, or is the fact they can sign so many a quick indicator that the draft wasn't so great.

[NCRaven]

So if the Orioles sign all top 10 picks they made this year...as the Sun indicates they think they canhere.

Does that make this year's draft a success? And if so, how much of a success.

Does this change the minds of people that weren't so high on this draft, or is the fact they can sign so many a quick indicator that the draft wasn't so great.

Assuming they sign Machado and Klein, I'm fine with this draft. My only real concern is the ML offices holding up on approving over-slot contracts, particularly for the two top guys. I'm glad to see we've sign the other two UCLA players and I'm really pleased with how well Mummey has broken out of the gate at Aberdeen.

[QBsILLEST1]

Assuming they sign Machado and Klein, I'm fine with this draft. My only real concern is the ML offices holding up on approving over-slot contracts, particularly for the two top guys. I'm glad to see we've sign the other two UCLA players and I'm really pleased with how well Mummey has broken out of the gate at Aberdeen.

I agree with this, but I'd really want us to sign our entire top 10(mostly Narron, Anderson, Klein, Bywater and Machado) as well as some overslots like Urban, Robinson etc........We can have a pretty solid draft here. Mediocre upside but some safety. Last year we drafted a ton of upside but no real safety other than Townsend. We are paying the price for that right now with most of our best picks being hurt(Cowan, Henry, Givens, Wirsch, Coffey). Now, things may change in a couple of years because most of these guys will come back, but right now, we are paying the price for such a high risk/high reward draft. IMO this is the reason we took a large amount of college prospects this year.

[flashjordnk]

I agree with this, but I'd really want us to sign our entire top 10(mostly Narron, Anderson, Klein, Bywater and Machado) as well as some overslots like Urban, Robinson etc........We can have a pretty solid draft here. Mediocre upside but some safety. Last year we drafted a ton of upside but no real safety other than Townsend. We are paying the price for that right now with most of our best picks being hurt(Cowan, Henry, Givens, Wirsch, Coffey). Now, things may change in a couple of years because most of these guys will come back, but right now, we are paying the price for such a high risk/high reward draft. IMO this is the reason we took a large amount of college prospects this year.

This makes me think of another interesting question then...

If we're changing our draft strategy year to year just to adjust to the nuances of our system now is this also a sign of the ineptitude of our system.

Shouldn't we be looking for something because of it's long term benefits and not saying, hey look one bad year with injuries let's blow up that plan and change it completely? It doesn't seem to represent much continuity to me.

I don't know much about how other teams draft, but that'd be a good sign if you ask me.

[QBsILLEST1]

This makes me think of another interesting question then...

If we're changing our draft strategy year to year just to adjust to the nuances of our system now is this also a sign of the ineptitude of our system.

Shouldn't we be looking for something because of it's long term benefits and not saying, hey look one bad year with injuries let's blow up that plan and change it completely? It doesn't seem to represent much continuity to me.

I don't know much about how other teams draft, but that'd be a good sign if you ask me.

There is nothing wrong with changing your strategy from draft season to draft season because each draft is different. As long as you try to stick to BPA when you pick, there isn't a big deal. Last year JJ thought that by drafting the injured guys that he would pay less more much more talent. This is true, but the problem is in this following season where the kids are still trying to come back 100% and most of them aren't quite there yet. In the end, IMO it will be a very successful draft for us, but right now, most of our top guys are hurt.

This was actually the first time we had tried that strategy to such an extreme. This year he sprinkled in some college guys(Bywater, Klein, Anderson). I am beginning to come around on the draft finally, I hated it at first, but actually am beginning to like it.....

[eb45]

The draft is governed by a budget. Last year, because the Jordan and co. drafted Hobgood, they had more money to spend in the later rounds, so they went after a lot of higher-upside guys. This year, with Machado, they have less money budgeted for the later rounds, which is why you're only seeing a few overslot guys compared to last year.

It's really not that hard of a concept. Next year's draft will probably be a lot like this year's, with lots of money spent on Rendon, Purke, Cole, or somebody, and then not a whole lot later on, barring an adjustment in budget by the FO.

[QBsILLEST1]

The draft is governed by a budget. Last year, because the Jordan and co. drafted Hobgood, they had more money to spend in the later rounds, so they went after a lot of higher-upside guys. This year, with Machado, they have less money budgeted for the later rounds, which is why you're only seeing a few overslot guys compared to last year.

It's really not that hard of a concept. Next year's draft will probably be a lot like this year's, with lots of money spent on Rendon, Purke, Cole, or somebody, and then not a whole lot later on, barring an adjustment in budget by the FO.

Well, we still took guys who are going to command overslot bonuses, its just that a couple of them are from college(Klein and Anderson). We may have actually taken about the same overslot picks, the difference is how many we sign(or intend to sign).

[NCRaven]

I agree with this, but I'd really want us to sign our entire top 10(mostly Narron, Anderson, Klein, Bywater and Machado) as well as some overslots like Urban, Robinson etc........We can have a pretty solid draft here.

Agree completely about signing the rest of the top 10 and some of the overslots. My only point was that if we do all of that, but don't sign Machado and Klein, I'll be extremely disappointed.

[flashjordnk]

Agree completely about signing the rest of the top 10 and some of the overslots. My only point was that if we do all of that, but don't sign Machado and Klein, I'll be extremely disappointed.

Does there seem to be any indications that we won't sign those too guys? The O's seem pretty confident both those guys are being brought into the fold.

[NCRaven]

Does there seem to be any indications that we won't sign those too guys? The O's seem pretty confident both those guys are being brought into the fold.

Everything that I've read or seen quoted indicates that the deals should get done. I was just pointing out that missing on these players would be a huge blow to the organization, both in terms of the players lost and the team's image around the league (could it be worse?) or with the fans (see first comment).

[Duke2010]

Well, we still took guys who are going to command overslot bonuses, its just that a couple of them are from college(Klein and Anderson). We may have actually taken about the same overslot picks, the difference is how many we sign(or intend to sign).

I agree with this. I think this draft has solid upside if we are able to sign most of our top 10 and a few other late round guys. If we miss out on a few of our top 10 and don't intend to offer overslot deals to Urban, Robinson, etc. I'll be disappointed with the effort.

I believe that Machado will be a solid ML SS, and I think we've got a decent amount of guys that will contribute to the big club. I think that Klein, Bywater, and Schrater could be solid bullpen candidates (unless Klein succeeds as a starter), and if signed, Anderson and Robinson could have similar roles in Baltimore.

We didn't take any elite talent outside of Machado, but I do think this draft will produce more major leaguers than any other Jordan draft because there seems to be a high number of intriguing relief prospects that could rise relatively quickly.

[QBsILLEST1]

I agree with this. I think this draft has solid upside if we are able to sign most of our top 10 and a few other late round guys. If we miss out on a few of our top 10 and don't intend to offer overslot deals to Urban, Robinson, etc. I'll be disappointed with the effort.

I believe that Machado will be a solid ML SS, and I think we've got a decent amount of guys that will contribute to the big club. I think that Klein, Bywater, and Schrater could be solid bullpen candidates (unless Klein succeeds as a starter), and if signed, Anderson and Robinson could have similar roles in Baltimore.

We didn't take any elite talent outside of Machado, but I do think this draft will produce more major leaguers than any other Jordan draft because there seems to be a high number of intriguing relief prospects that could rise relatively quickly.

I agree with this 100% and we took some guys who are definite breakout possibilities from HS. Schrader is one of those power relief arms thats gets overlooked here IMO. He sounds very intriguing. It seems that the last couple of years we have taken some excellent relief prospects(Dowdy and Brandhorst from last year and Schrader, Anderson and possibly Klein this year, though both Klein and Anderson will be tried as starters I believe)...

[flashjordnk]

Simply signing all of the top ten picks can't make a draft a success. It will depend on what they do on the field. We don't even have a read on last year's draft yet.

I definitely agree with you here. I know what you mean...but it wasn't really what I was trying to get at here.

I think the intent was directed a bit more at to view this current draft in its current form right now a success do we need to sign all 10 draft picks.

A lot of people had complaints about the talent and the signability of a lot of guys. I was just wondering if we had some success with signing some guys, what kind of impact would that make for us.

[Stotle]

I definitely agree with you here. I know what you mean...but it wasn't really what I was trying to get at here.

I think the intent was directed a bit more at to view this current draft in its current form right now a success do we need to sign all 10 draft picks.

A lot of people had complaints about the talent and the signability of a lot of guys. I was just wondering if we had some success with signing some guys, what kind of impact would that make for us.

I think you can certainly assign a draft grade at multiple points -- right after the draft, after signing period, each season thereafter, etc. Each measures by a different standard, but all are useful in grading a scouting department, in my opinion.

[QBsILLEST1]

I think you can certainly assign a draft grade at multiple points -- right after the draft, after signing period, each season thereafter, etc. Each measures by a different standard, but all are useful in grading a scouting department, in my opinion.

Just like they always say that top prospect lists are "snap shots" of the system or the MiL as a whole depending on whyat list you are looking at, I agree. You can break the draft down in many different ways, but I agree with what you say here. It is a success to sign all the picks you intend to, thats the first challenge. Then and thereafter, it is all about player development and how much into the drafted player's ceiling he carved into...