Situational Hitting

[BaltimO's35]

The issue is not whether they can change their swing to maximize their chances of hitting a groundball or a flyball (and this skill varies greatly), but whether they should and if so, how often.

Well, that depends on the hitter's ability (contact or power), his or his manager's personal philosophy, and the game situation. With a man on second and no outs Mora should be looking to drive the ball to the opposite field irregardless of the fact that he's one of the better hitters on the team IMO. The fact is that hitters CAN do it and that they DO do it. Whether or not they should depends upon a statistical analysis I am not prepared to undertake.

[MP]

Let me channel the stat guys here:

There is no such thing as situational hitting. There is no such thing as a productive out. The score doesn't matter. The inning doesn't matter. The runners on base don't matter. Always attempt to homer or walk. Swing for extra bases at all times. Every AB exists in a bubble that is oblivious to both the game and your teammates. Always play to maximize runs. Never steal a base, never bunt, and never play for 1 run. Moving runners over does not show up in OPS or RC or any other metric, and is therefore meaningless.

[AgentOrange]

I think what Baltimoron and I am saying is that a hitter trying to elevate the ball in most cases can be counterproductive. Sure anyone can try to hit a flyball. Try to uppercut a little or if you're really expert, try to aim for the lower half of the ball. If it were that easy, ballplayers would center the ball every time up and hit line drives EVERY time.

And I am saying, that in the situation where the winning or tying run is on third, you need to get him home. One way to get him home is a sac fly, you can also get a basehit and you can also hit a grounder depending on how the D is playing.

If your sole purpose that one AB is to hit a sac fly, I would say the chances of that happening would be 70%.

Yet, with the Hafner situation. He has only been up 21 times this year with that scenerio where he could obtain a sac fly. In those 21 times, how many was it late in the game with the tying or winning run that was on third?

The situations are too hard to score and it is very hard to argue. I just think that a ML hitter is skilled enough with a bat to do that if needed.

[Baltimoron]

With a man on second and no outs Mora should be looking to drive the ball to the opposite field irregardless of the fact that he's one of the better hitters on the team IMO. The fact is that hitters CAN do it and that they DO do it. Whether or not they should depends upon a statistical analysis I am not prepared to undertake.

You just told us Mora should in the sentence above, and given Mora's above average bat the question is perhaps more difficult to answer than with an average hitter, as there is more lost in diverging from Mora's normal approach than that of an average hitter.

We know hitters can and they do, but degree to which they "can" is overstated and the "should" is far less than people seem to realize.

[CrimsonTribe]

Let me channel the stat guys here:

There is no such thing as situational hitting. There is no such thing as a productive out. The score doesn't matter. The inning doesn't matter. The runners on base don't matter. Always attempt to homer or walk. Swing for extra bases at all times. Every AB exists in a bubble that is oblivious to both the game and your teammates. Always play to maximize runs. Never steal a base, never bunt, and never play for 1 run. Moving runners over does not show up in OPS or RC or any other metric, and is therefore meaningless.

Quite the overstatement. I'm assuming it was intentional. I'm sure you won't find anyone who says not to play for one run when it is all you need late in the game.

[Baltimoron]

If your sole purpose that one AB is to hit a sac fly, I would say the chances of that happening would be 70%.

This is preposterous.

[MP]

Quite the overstatement. I'm assuming it was intentional. I'm sure you won't find anyone who says not to play for one run when it is all you need late in the game.

You would be surprised...

And yes it was a very intentional overstatement on my part! I love the focus and ability of small ball, I love watching teams that can get the 1 run when they need it. That's good baseball. Not everyone agrees with that though.

[CrimsonTribe]

This is preposterous.

In what way? Care to expound on it?

[AgentOrange]

And yet if you watch a lot of games, you can see that they don't time and time again. You can try to tell me that they just aren't in the right frame of mind and I will tell you that it's not as easy as you make it out to be.

So we are on opposite sides of the fence. I saw a stat the other day on ESPN about the percentage of runs scored in the "runner on third < 2 outs" scenerio, and it was around 86% for a player, but they only had 12 chances.

You can feel strongly about the way you feel and thats fine, this is one of those grey areas in baseball that makes it very hard to back up with stats.

So can we just agree to disagree?

[CrimsonTribe]

You would be surprised...

And yes it was a very intentional overstatement on my part! I love the focus and ability of small ball, I love watching teams that can get the 1 run when they need it. That's good baseball. Not everyone agrees with that though.

I appreciate small ball and think that every team should be able to execute in that manner. I just think that its use should be limited to mainly close and late situations. Otherwise you are just wasting outs.

[Baltimoron]

Let me channel the stat guys here:

There is no such thing as situational hitting. There is no such thing as a productive out. The score doesn't matter. The inning doesn't matter. The runners on base don't matter. Always attempt to homer or walk. Swing for extra bases at all times. Every AB exists in a bubble that is oblivious to both the game and your teammates. Always play to maximize runs. Never steal a base, never bunt, and never play for 1 run. Moving runners over does not show up in OPS or RC or any other metric, and is therefore meaningless.

I can defeat a strawman as well. Unfortunately, from my persepctive the goal isn't "winning", but greater insight and knowledge. How about you?

[AgentOrange]

This is preposterous.

Come on, you are better than that. If you don't agree, tell me what you think.

I am going off my experiance of playing at a high level, and then understanding that ML hitters and ML pitchers are very high level. They have great bat control. There are a lot of varibles, yes, but this is how I feel from my experiances, and if you disagree, thats fine.

[Leitch]

There is no such thing as situational hitting. There is no such thing as a productive out. The score doesn't matter. The inning doesn't matter. The runners on base don't matter. Always attempt to homer or walk. Swing for extra bases at all times. Every AB exists in a bubble that is oblivious to both the game and your teammates. Always play to maximize runs. Never steal a base, never bunt, and never play for 1 run. Moving runners over does not show up in OPS or RC or any other metric, and is therefore meaningless.

Yeah, what are these Rotisserie geeks thinking? If you play for one run every inning, you'll score 8 or 9 runs a game! It's a sure thing, because small-ball strategies never, ever fail. Giving outs to the other team is great strategy, especially early in the game, and especially when they're having trouble getting them on their own. There is something beautiful and dignified and even moral in winning 2-1 against Casey Fossum or Mark Hendrickson.

[BaltimO's35]

You just told us Mora should in the sentence above, and given Mora's above average bat the question is perhaps more difficult to answer than with an average hitter, as there is more lost in diverging from Mora's normal approach than that of an average hitter.

We know hitters can and they do, but degree to which they "can" is overstated and the "should" is far less than people seem to realize.

I said "IMO" meaning in my opinion, if Mora gets a pitch he can drive the other way he should attempt to do just that. That way, even if he makes an out, chances are the runner is moved over to third base with less than two outs (which I believe increases the chance that he scores). Prove that the "degree to which they can" is overstated... I'm not sure thats really an objective statement. I agree with you that whether or not they "should" is a more complicated matter than most people realize.

[Baltimoron]

Come on, you are better than that. If you don't agree, tell me what you think.

I am going off my experiance of playing at a high level, and then understanding that ML hitters and ML pitchers are very high level. They have great bat control. There are a lot of varibles, yes, but this is how I feel from my experiances, and if you disagree, thats fine.

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