Measuring Wieters' impact on Orioles isn't easy - Kevin Van Valkenburg, The Baltimore Sun

[BaltimoreTerp]

Your idea of "the best minds in baseball" is different than mine. I have a lot of respect for sabermetricians, but I'm not writing off the opinions of thousands of players who have played the game annd hundreds of managers who have managed it. I realize that sometimes conventional wisdom gets established that has no basis in fact, but I'm not willing to accept the notion that pitch-calling by the catcher is essentially irrelevant, when so many pitchers, catchers and managers think otherwise.

But how many different things have "so many pitchers, catchers and managers" thought that has turned out with research to be questionable at best, outright wrong at worst?

This is like talking in 1711 about how thousands of smart, talented and respected people over the years have believed and taught that the Sun revolved around the Earth, so you believe them despite all of the scientific research that has been done that says it is the other way around. It's especially problematic when the people you are listening to have an interest in keeping up that particular belief.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

But how many different things have "so many pitchers, catchers and managers" thought that has turned out with research to be questionable at best, outright wrong at worst?

This is like talking in 1711 about how thousands of smart, talented and respected people over the years have believed and taught that the Sun revolved around the Earth, so you believe them despite all of the scientific research that has been done that says it is the other way around. It's especially problematic when the people you are listening to have an interest in keeping up that particular belief.

Really? Do tell, who really shot Kennedy?

[Hallas]

Was it unrealistic to expect him to be an 850ish OPS hitter by now?

I probably expected around a .800-.850 last season. Given the major downturn in offense, .770 after-the-fact would have been very, very valuable.

Mike Napoli posted a .784 last season and was worth about 16 more runs on offense than Matt was. If Matt performs closer to that level while maintaining his stellar defense, he's a borderline all star; he'd be worth around 3.8 to 4.0 fWAR.

I've made the case for a while that Matt doesn't need to be Piazza with the bat to be as valuable, especially if he proves to be a better defender than Piazza was. Even if he hits the low-end projections (.800 OPS, 110 OPS+ give or take), he'd practically be an all-star due to the general lack of offense from the catcher position. The problem of course, is that he's not even meeting that expectation.

[BaltimoreTerp]

[/b]

Really? Do tell, who really shot Kennedy?

You say that, but you really don't think that the people who work closest to the catchers, along with the catchers themselves, have reasons to say that their catcher is significantly more important than they actually are?

[El Gordo]

[/b]

Really? Do tell, who really shot Kennedy?

Lucien Sarti, Michael Mertz and Charles Harrelson, among others.:laughlol:

[Sports Guy]

I probably expected around a .800-.850 last season. Given the major downturn in offense, .770 after-the-fact would have been very, very valuable.

Mike Napoli posted a .784 last season and was worth about 16 more runs on offense than Matt was. If Matt performs closer to that level while maintaining his stellar defense, he's a borderline all star; he'd be worth around 3.8 to 4.0 fWAR.

I've made the case for a while that Matt doesn't need to be Piazza with the bat to be as valuable, especially if he proves to be a better defender than Piazza was. Even if he hits the low-end projections (.800 OPS, 110 OPS+ give or take), he'd practically be an all-star due to the general lack of offense from the catcher position. The problem of course, is that he's not even meeting that expectation.

So then, your answer is no..that wasn't/isn't an unreasonable expectation?

[Sports Guy]

Looks like GaTech's baseball stadium has some deep fences.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russ_Chandler_Stadium

[McNulty]

I probably saw more of Wieters in college than just about anyone here. Some of you may remember me bringing up issues around the discussions of whether to draft Buster Posey who I also saw a lot.

If you look at his power numbers, his sophomore year was much better than his junior year. Typically college freshman struggle. Even the highly touted ones. Gordon Beckham and Posey both had very mediocre freshman years, and to a lesser extent sophomore seasons. The real growth, and this is pretty universal, happens in the junior year. Posey and Beckham both blew up. Wieters regressed slightly (down from 18 homers to 10, I believe).

College Wieters sprayed the ball everywhere. The power wasn't ridiculous, but the ball jumped off his bat. Perhaps the aluminum had a lot to do with that, I don't know. I had my doubts about his overall ceiling, but what do I know to question every single scout who was in love with his swing? I said many times leading up to the Posey draft that I thought Posey was the superior player. Its easy to say that now, I know, but there were certainly thoughts of doubt in my mind even when he was at GT.

Going forward, if there's one part of his game that I believe is different is the attitude. He was much more aggressive without being wreckless in college. Its almost like he knew they couldn't get him out. Now, its the other way around. I think he just needs to remember that he can be aggressive and succeed.

[Sports Guy]

Should the Orioles lower Wieters' hands maybe?

Nick usually hits better when his hands are lower...He seemingly can get the bat through the zone quicker. Is that something they should be tinkering with when it comes to Wieters?

[Hallas]

So then, your answer is no..that wasn't/isn't an unreasonable expectation?

I think .850 is probably a little high, but not a lot.

[Sports Guy]

I think .850 is probably a little high, but not a lot.

Ehh ok..I disagree but whatever..not worth debating over.

[Sports Guy]

http://thebaseballcube.com/profile.asp?P=Matt-Wieters

Look at all those walks for Wieters in college and in the minors.

254 walks in 1282 at bats. That's a very good amount of walks.

That was a walk every 5 at bats...In the majors? One every 10.6 at bats.

In the majors, he is averaging a homer every 41.3 at bats...a double every 21.7 at bats.

In college, he averaged a homer every 20.1 at bats...a double every 13 at bats.

In the minors, he averaged a homer every 18 at bats...a double every 18.6 at bats.

Where is the power and the plate discipline he showed everywhere else?

He should be, at the very least, a 30 double/15 homer guy by now, with still more room to grow. Couple those stats with what should be 70-80 walks and a 290ish BA and you have a guy that should have an OPS in the 800s by now..again, with lots of room to grow.

That is what we SHOULD be looking at right now..at a minimum.

He is a long ways away from that.

[Dagger420]

Wieters has been a huge disappointment from a fan perspective and I am sure Orioles management. He was supposed to be that once in a decade player that changes a franchise and while he has been great defensively, he is not at all what fans were expecting offensively. I would not say he is a bust but rather just say he has been a huge disappointment.

Only if you got your hopes up...I told Dan he would take awhile with that swing I saw on the scouting video on draft day...This is the same organization that pumped up guys like Hayden Penn, Jeffrey Hammonds, Rocky Coppinger just to name a few.

You know who Wieters really reminds me of?

This guy also didn't produce at all in the MLB until he was 25, and really didn't hit his full potential until 29.

Will Wieters ever change positions? probably not in the near future, but maybe as the defense becomes more second nature, he will spend more of his time focusing on offensive aspects of his game.

[ADAMWD_OsRavens]

I feel like Matt's problem is a confidence issue more than anything. In college and in the minors, Wieters probably took each plate appearance with the mind set that he couldn't get out, that he was the best player on the field. When you play any sport, or participate in any activity, as long as you have some skill to back it up, with that kind of mentality, you will perform strongly.

There was so much pressure on him during the 2009 season, that every time he got out, he probably had more weight on his shoulders, and doubts creeping into his mind during games. I've never seen a player get a standing ovation from a sold out crowd throughout the entire duration of his first major league at bat.

Now, I'm sure he probably doesn't approach each game with an aggressive, unstoppable mentality. He needs to work on studying pitchers like he does hitters, and work on improving his offense as well as restoring some of that lost confidence.

I saw Matt a few times during his stint in Bowie, and he was the best representation of the phrase, "A man among boys", that I have ever seen. He looked like a damn fine baseball player. I know he has the skill to perform at the level of an all-star, and I know that he has the work ethic required to get to where he needs to be offensively.

Matt Wieters will become a great baseball player for the Baltimore Orioles, and I hope that some time soon we can look back on these discussions and laugh.

[SrMeowMeow]

I probably saw more of Wieters in college than just about anyone here. Some of you may remember me bringing up issues around the discussions of whether to draft Buster Posey who I also saw a lot.

If you look at his power numbers, his sophomore year was much better than his junior year. Typically college freshman struggle. Even the highly touted ones. Gordon Beckham and Posey both had very mediocre freshman years, and to a lesser extent sophomore seasons. The real growth, and this is pretty universal, happens in the junior year. Posey and Beckham both blew up. Wieters regressed slightly (down from 18 homers to 10, I believe).

College Wieters sprayed the ball everywhere. The power wasn't ridiculous, but the ball jumped off his bat. Perhaps the aluminum had a lot to do with that, I don't know. I had my doubts about his overall ceiling, but what do I know to question every single scout who was in love with his swing? I said many times leading up to the Posey draft that I thought Posey was the superior player. Its easy to say that now, I know, but there were certainly thoughts of doubt in my mind even when he was at GT.

Going forward, if there's one part of his game that I believe is different is the attitude. He was much more aggressive without being wreckless in college. Its almost like he knew they couldn't get him out. Now, its the other way around. I think he just needs to remember that he can be aggressive and succeed.

I'm curious, when you preferred Posey to Wieters, did you also prefer Posey's bat to Wieters's bat? Because Wieters was a consensus top pick and that was when all the questions were about his defense.