Measuring Wieters' impact on Orioles isn't easy - Kevin Van Valkenburg, The Baltimore Sun

[Frobby]

It can't be measured at all.

He can get all the credit he wants (and deserves) but that is different from assigning value to it. Considering the best minds in baseball, with access to hundreds of years of data, have not been able to find any evidence that catchers affect pitchers in a significant way, I'll trust them over some short-range stats about a young pitching staff improving (which is the norm, of course).

Your idea of "the best minds in baseball" is different than mine. I have a lot of respect for sabermetricians, but I'm not writing off the opinions of thousands of players who have played the game annd hundreds of managers who have managed it. I realize that sometimes conventional wisdom gets established that has no basis in fact, but I'm not willing to accept the notion that pitch-calling by the catcher is essentially irrelevant, when so many pitchers, catchers and managers think otherwise.

[Sports Guy]

What don't I get? You're making a comparison based on Wieters' and Ausmus' first few seasons and ignoring that it's a bad comparison. Where am I wrong? What comparison are you making that's not based on offense?

I am talking about the a catcher who is known as a great game caller, good defensively, etc....If that is all Wieters is going to be(and sure, you can throw in another 40-50 points of OPS), then he will not have been what we hoped for.

When the Orioles drafted him, they didn't draft him to be Ausmus(+ 50 points in OPS, just to satisfy your stupid argument).

[flashjordnk]

The bold is where your argument fails miserably. Wieters was bad last year and he's bad this year. People are showing multiple statistics that have people concerned about Wieters long term offensive potential. Now you can certainly disagree, but please don't suggest everyone is being "super reactionary" based off nine games.

So your saying Wieters has done nothing to change from last year and has not and will not do anything different this year than last year?

We can't give Wieters the benefit of a reasonable sample size, 150 PA's this year, before saying that he's done nothing to change?

I guess at the age of 24 I'm willing to give a guy 30 games to show adjustments or improvements. Didn't they say Presley started working with MW on shortening his swing about 2/3 of the way through ST? On March 16 MW had a BA of .207 in ST. Over the next 8 games, did he not raise his average to .283? I'm not saying we've seen improvement yet, but am I the only one willing to say we need to wait and see if those adjustments can make a difference this year, and not do so in 9 games?

Baltimore manager Buck Showalter and hitting coach Jim Presley suggested some mechanical changes in Wieters' stroke, an idea that would have been ridiculous when Wieters was tearing up the minors or getting his feet wet in the majors. To his credit, Wieters was receptive to the help and whacked four hits the very next day.

link

This quote could be false and they might not be working on it. Or since March 17th all of 26 days ago MW started to try and improve.

If Wieters OPS was .050 higher, would it be more beneficial to the Orioles if came at the cost of defense?

The idea that KVV might ask the question about all of .050 higher in OPS says to me that we're not appreciating the value of what MW is giving us right now. And the fact that he's been pretty poor through the better part of 9 games seems to make it somewhat reactionary to me. I'll retract my super reactionary and mute it down to somewhat reactionary. But I think we need to give the kid some time to make some adjustments when he wasn't asked to make any at all until March of this year.

[Sports Guy]

SMM I agree with you. He then used Tatum as a comparison.

LOL...Do you miss things like this in everything you do or just on here?

I think the larger point that SMM and myself are trying to make is that some people are undervaluing what we already get from Wieters

This just continues to illustrate that you aren't grasping simple ideas in this or any other thread.

[Sports Guy]

So your saying Wieters has done nothing to change from last year and has not and will not do anything different this year than last year?

We can't give Wieters the benefit of a reasonable sample size, 150 PA's this year, before saying that he's done nothing to change?

I guess at the age of 24 I'm willing to give a guy 30 games to show adjustments or improvements. Didn't they say Presley started working with MW on shortening his swing about 2/3 of the way through ST? On March 16 MW had a BA of .207 in ST. Over the next 8 games, did he not raise his average to .283? I'm not saying we've seen improvement yet, but am I the only one willing to say we need to wait and see if those adjustments can make a difference this year, and not do so in 9 games?

link

This quote could be false and they might not be working on it. Or since March 17th all of 26 days ago MW started to try and improve.

The idea that KVV might ask the question about all of .050 higher in OPS says to me that we're not appreciating the value of what MW is giving us right now. And the fact that he's been pretty poor through the better part of 9 games seems to make it somewhat reactionary to me. I'll retract my super reactionary and mute it down to somewhat reactionary. But I think we need to give the kid some time to make some adjustments when he wasn't asked to make any at all until March of this year.

Simple question for you...By the time Wieters got here, what kind of hitter did you envision him being by now?

[flashjordnk]

I am talking about the a catcher who is known as a great game caller, good defensively, etc....If that is all Wieters is going to be(and sure, you can throw in another 40-50 points of OPS), then he will not have been what we hoped for.

When the Orioles drafted him, they didn't draft him to be Ausmus(+ 50 points in OPS, just to satisfy your stupid argument).

So what Ausmus + 100 OPS points. Ausmus +150? How many?

[Sports Guy]

I agree that this thread isn't necessarily "super reactionary", but I disagree with the bolded. Yes, Wieters was bad last year. This year, he's been nothing, he's played in like 8 games.

And thus far this year, what improvements are you seeing that make you think he is getting ready to turn the corner?(include ST in this as well if you would like)

[ledzepp8]

And thus far this year, what improvements are you seeing that make you think he is getting ready to turn the corner?(include ST in this as well if you would like)

Where did I say that he was getting ready to turn the corner? I just said that it wasn't fair to label him as "bad" this year when it's only been 8 games. Sure, he's been bad against Detroit and Texas.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

I don't see why some people are upset that others are bummed that he's not a better hitter right now.

I think if you polled the OH back in early 2008 and said "Guess what? What if Matt Wieters is going to be scuffling along in his career and actually REGRESSED as a hitter by early 2011...how does that sit with you?" the vast majority of people on here would be disappointed. I don't think there'd be a whole lot of people crying about "Well we'd just have to give him more time!"

I agree. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't it more about the bat then anything else when they drafted him? I believe I heard alot about "how long will he stay a catcher" and "we will have to dh him or give him time at 1st to keep his bat in the lineup". Right now he is a very good defensive catcher. But would anyone want him to DH over Fox, Reimold and dare I say Pie at this stage of his career?

[flashjordnk]

Simple question for you...By the time Wieters got here, what kind of hitter did you envision him being by now?

Honestly, I envisioned him to be the opposite of what we had now. I thought he was going to be a stud hitter that caught about 100 games a year and DHed the 62.

I think that vision of him has changed. I'd rather see him catch 120 at an elite level and DH none of the rest.

Are those two pictures different, heck ya. I didn't know a ton about the guy when he came up. Would I trade Jones for Guitterez right now? I think I might. My point being that would I trade the future value of Jones power for what appears to be a much better glove? Yeah. How does this apply to Wieters? Is he different than what I thought of when he came up...definitely. Is he infinitely less valuable, I'm not so sure.

[Sports Guy]

Where did I say that he was getting ready to turn the corner? I just said that it wasn't fair to label him as "bad" this year when it's only been 8 games. Sure, he's been bad against Detroit and Texas.

I think the issue that people are having, including myself, isn't the stats. I could care less what his stats are right now.

In another Wieters thread, scOtt talked about how he had an 890 OPS at the time...but that didn't matter because the hits were still soft and he still looked bad at the plate.

This argument goes a whole lot deeper than just stats. In fact, I am not sure anyone has given any stats for what he has done this year(although i did point out his LD%, which was only pointed out in expressing my concerns, not because I think it is valid at this point in the season)

[Sports Guy]

Honestly, I envisioned him to be the opposite of what we had now. I thought he was going to be a stud hitter that caught about 100 games a year and DHed the 62.

I think that vision of him has changed. I'd rather see him catch 120 at an elite level and DH none of the rest.

Are those two pictures different, heck ya. I didn't know a ton about the guy when he came up. Would I trade Jones for Guitterez right now? I think I might. My point being that would I trade the future value of Jones power for what appears to be a much better glove? Yeah. How does this apply to Wieters? Is he different than what I thought of when he came up...definitely. Is he infinitely less valuable, I'm not so sure.

Ok...and what has done, OFFENSIVELY, that has bothered you?

[Sports Guy]

I agree. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't it more about the bat then anything else when they drafted him? I believe I heard alot about "how long will he stay a catcher" and "we will have to dh him or give him time at 1st to keep his bat in the lineup". Right now he is a very good defensive catcher. But would anyone want him to DH over Fox, Reimold and dare I say Pie at this stage of his career?

Yes...he was clearly drafted for his bat. The Orioles, I am sure, hoped he would develop into an above average catcher but he needed work on that.

The Orioles didn't draft him in hopes that he would be a GG caliber catcher who would give us a 730 OPS.

[ledzepp8]

I think the issue that people are having, including myself, isn't the stats. I could care less what his stats are right now.

In another Wieters thread, scOtt talked about how he had an 890 OPS at the time...but that didn't matter because the hits were still soft and he still looked bad at the plate.

This argument goes a whole lot deeper than just stats. In fact, I am not sure anyone has given any stats for what he has done this year(although i did point out his LD%, which was only pointed out in expressing my concerns, not because I think it is valid at this point in the season)

I agree with this and I agree that he's been disappointing. I hope he's one of those guys where everything just suddenly clicks. As disappointing as he's been though, he still has been valuable to this team (not saying that you disagree with that).

[flashjordnk]

Ok...and what has done, OFFENSIVELY, that has bothered you?

Right...honestly like I said earlier, I'd really like to see how his adjustments that Presley is working on with him come out. I think 9 games is too soon to assume he isn't changing his style. Or if he is changing those changes won't be successful in the long term.

I hate that he doesn't attack the ball. I really do. He looks big, we know he can be strong when he needs to be. I'm not sure what the trigger point is there for him. But I'm not willing to say he's not going to make the jump this year until at least 80 games in. I do think his approach needs work, but I don't think he's just idling and not doing anything about it. And if that's the case I'm not willing to say the MW through 9 games this year is the same MW as the one we had last year.