Measuring Wieters' impact on Orioles isn't easy - Kevin Van Valkenburg, The Baltimore Sun

[Phantom]

It cannot be measured with precision, but we will see the results of the pitching staff. If the pitching goes from considerably below average to considerably better than average, I'm willing to assume that Wieters gets some of the credit for that. But I'm still waiting to see if that actually happens.

It can't be measured at all.

He can get all the credit he wants (and deserves) but that is different from assigning value to it. Considering the best minds in baseball, with access to hundreds of years of data, have not been able to find any evidence that catchers affect pitchers in a significant way, I'll trust them over some short-range stats about a young pitching staff improving (which is the norm, of course).

[SrMeowMeow]

The ludicrous thing is that you don't actually get what I mean when I say Ausmus.

No, I get it. You like hyperbole more than rationality. Comparing the two as hitters is stupid.

Do you really project Wieters to have a career OPS of .685? Honestly? Within 50 points of that? No? Okay.

[K.V.V.]

A one game sample with Jake Fox catching is not a big enough sample size. If Wieters has to miss two games with a strained hamstring,and they bring Tatum up for those two games. Britton and Guthrie both throw five hit shutouts,does that make Tatum a great pitch caller?

This is certainly a fair point.

I don't want t come off as a Wieters apologist here. My eyes tell me he looks like he's hitting the ball with bat made of sponge, his line drives are so soft, and stats tell me he's awful when he gets behind in the count and that he's awful as a right-handed hitter. He's not likely to be a transcendent hitter. He'll never be Piazza or Mauer with the bat. But it isn't like he faked those minor league stats. He has to be a better hitter than this. And even if he hits a little, he's worth the investment. Maybe not the emotional investment, but if he didn't play for a franchise that had a recent history of so much failure, he wouldn't have been cast as the savior. One of the reasons the Yankees got good in the 1990s is they kept their corps of young players together. They let them develop, bond, and invest in one another. When people say the O's should just ditch Wieters now and try to get something while his market value is still high, that seems like a total panic move, and I can't imagine it would inspire much confidence in Matuzs and Britton, who seem to have bonded with him.

Seems like if you give him an entire year working under Showalter, and he's still hitting dying quails that every-so-often happen to fall in for hits, then it's time to panic. But it doesn't seem like O's fans should be there just yet.

[Sports Guy]

No, I get it. You like hyperbole more than rationality. Comparing the two as hitters is stupid.

Do you really project Wieters to have a career OPS of .685? Honestly? Within 50 points of that? No? Okay.

No you really don't get it...The mere fact you are bringing up offense showsthat my point, which Bterp explained on page 1, flew over your head.

[OriolesMagic83]

one of Wieters top 10 comparable players from baseball reference: Thurman Munson multiple time all star and MVP. I'll take that if that's what Wieters becomes. I don't know much about Munson, but I know he was the captain and leader of the Yankees, with a great arm, and I assume great defense. Not the greatest hitter from looking at his stats, but still won MVP one year-before the MVP was awarded 90% based on offensive numbers.

[Stotle]

We are talking about you ever just trying to be one of the guys. Can you be Joe Fan once in awhile. Are you telling me you haven't seen Wieters in the last 13 months and you have no opinion from watching him hit? Instead of coming into the thread and being the arbiter on what is a reasonable post and what is not, why not just jump in with an opinion? An opinion, without years of analysis, just like the rest of us are doing. Be one of the fans, once in awhile! Don't get me wrong. Your analysis is great. You have a lot of knowledge. Just come down from the mountain every now and then.

Sorry, didn't mean to come off that way.

Earlier this winter/spring I posted my opinions on him from last year -- that I felt he was feeling for contact rather than attacking the ball, and his defensive swings were the cause of his bat appearing slow. Generally, I'm not too concerned with him. He hit at Georgia Tech, throughout the minors, in the AFL, and he did it a lot. I'm fairly confident that sitting down and focusing on his approach/swing will show maybe some timing issues and some approach issues, but nothing structurally or physically wrong. In a nutshell, I don't see how his physical abilities would have gone away, and I don't think there is any reason to think his production won't improve.

That isn't to say he will absolutely make the necessary adjustments and emerge the offensive stud he was expected to be. But he clearly has a mind and feel for the game, so I give him the benefit of the doubt that he'll apply that to his bat and work it out. A lot of times very small issues can throw off players -- particularly young and inexperienced players. I just don't think we've come close to "panic button".

[The Rick]

Big props to KVV by the way. This is as transparent as I have seen a mainstream media person be with the fans. It's been great to have him be actively involved in this discussion today. Keep up the great work KVV!

[Stotle]

Some career power numbers for Wieters in college:

Slugging%: 594

doubles: 1 every 13 at bats

homers: 1 every 20 at bats

Are these normal numbers for a college power hitter? Better than normal? Worse?

It's good. Depending on his schedule and the park metrics, it could be much higher or much lower, when compared to comparable bats. Keep in mind that its tough to project power off of pure college stats.

Some other context w/r/t Wieters's college career. He was generally viewed as a refined bat with good pitch-ID and a good understanding of the strikezone. His power to pull was very good, and most projected him a good power bat as a pro, as well. He showed these similar characteristics throughout the minors, which is part of the reason I have a hard time believing he simply lost these abilities. I think it's more likely that there are still adjustments he needs to make and simply hasn't made them yet, but that is not based on anything other than gut.

[The Rick]

It's good. Depending on his schedule and the park metrics, it could be much higher or much lower, when compared to comparable bats. Keep in mind that its tough to project power off of pure college stats.

Some other context w/r/t Wieters's college career. He was generally viewed as a refined bat with good pitch-ID and a good understanding of the strikezone. His power to pull was very good, and most projected him a good power bat as a pro, as well. He showed these similar characteristics throughout the minors, which is part of the reason I have a hard time believing he simply lost these abilities. I think it's more likely that there are still adjustments he needs to make and simply hasn't made them yet, but that is not based on anything other than gut.

Was he also a good pull hitter in the minors? This is something we've rarely seen from him since he's been in B-More.

[Tony-OH]

We are talking about you ever just trying to be one of the guys. Can you be Joe Fan once in awhile. Are you telling me you haven't seen Wieters in the last 13 months and you have no opinion from watching him hit? Instead of coming into the thread and being the arbiter on what is a reasonable post and what is not, why not just jump in with an opinion? An opinion, without years of analysis, just like the rest of us are doing. Be one of the fans, once in awhile! Don't get me wrong. Your analysis is great. You have a lot of knowledge. Just come down from the mountain every now and then.

You are the only one around here that feels Stotle acts above anyone around here. You need to stop trolling his posts. Your act against one of the best posters on this site as well as a site contributor is getting old.

[SrMeowMeow]

No you really don't get it...The mere fact you are bringing up offense showsthat my point, which Bterp explained on page 1, flew over your head.

What don't I get? You're making a comparison based on Wieters' and Ausmus' first few seasons and ignoring that it's a bad comparison. Where am I wrong? What comparison are you making that's not based on offense?

[flashjordnk]

What don't I get? You're making a comparison based on Wieters' and Ausmus' first few seasons and ignoring that it's a bad comparison. Where am I wrong? What comparison are you making that's not based on offense?

SMM I agree with you. He then used Tatum as a comparison.

In their age-24 seasons, Ausmus had a .696 OPS. Wieters had a .695.

Ausmus also had five years very close to or better than Wieters' .712 career OPS, two of them over 50 points better.

This is what the point BTerp made. Let's dig a little deeper. In the next 4 seasons of Ausmus's career he topped his small sample size 696 OPS one time. Following his 3 seasons from 29-31 after that he had a lot more seasons that were sub - 696. At age 23 Wieters had a 753 OPS season. Anyone can take a 166 PA season at the age of 24 and use the SSS to twist a point. But I'm not quite sure what the point that Bterp was making here. At age 23 Ausmus didn't play in the majors. Can you infer anything from that? Probably not.

I think the larger point that SMM and myself are trying to make is that some people are undervaluing what we already get from Wieters. We get a lot from Wieters and it's much more than Ausmus or Tatum or a lot of those guys provided. I think Wieters is a much better hitter than Ausmus was, and I think he's in a bit of a slump in his first 9 games right now. I think this thread is super reactionary to a slow start, and while there are no guarantees that Wieters will improve or become a better hitter, I think we get a lot from him already. A lot more than we'd get from a guy like Tatum who you reference.

[Tony-OH]

SMM I agree with you. He then used Tatum as a comparison.

This is what the point BTerp made. Let's dig a little deeper. In the next 4 seasons of Ausmus's career he topped his small sample size 696 OPS one time. Following his 3 seasons from 29-31 after that he had a lot more seasons that were sub - 696. At age 23 Wieters had a 753 OPS season. Anyone can take a 166 PA season at the age of 24 and use the SSS to twist a point. But I'm not quite sure what the point that Bterp was making here. At age 23 Ausmus didn't play in the majors. Can you infer anything from that? Probably not.

I think the larger point that SMM and myself are trying to make is that some people are undervaluing what we already get from Wieters. We get a lot from Wieters and it's much more than Ausmus or Tatum or a lot of those guys provided. I think Wieters is a much better hitter than Ausmus was, and I think he's in a bit of a slump in his first 9 games right now. I think this thread is super reactionary to a slow start, and while there are no guarantees that Wieters will improve or become a better hitter, I think we get a lot from him already. A lot more than we'd get from a guy like Tatum who you reference.

The bold is where your argument fails miserably. Wieters was bad last year and he's bad this year. People are showing multiple statistics that have people concerned about Wieters long term offensive potential. Now you can certainly disagree, but please don't suggest everyone is being "super reactionary" based off nine games.

[ledzepp8]

The bold is where your argument fails miserably. Wieters was bad last year and he's bad this year. People are showing multiple statistics that have people concerned about Wieters long term offensive potential. Now you can certainly disagree, but please don't suggest everyone is being "super reactionary" based off nine games.

I agree that this thread isn't necessarily "super reactionary", but I disagree with the bolded. Yes, Wieters was bad last year. This year, he's been nothing, he's played in like 8 games.

[Sports Guy]

Needs to be normalized for field and schedule. What was his BA?

.359

http://ramblinwreck.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/wieters_matt00.html