Measuring Wieters' impact on Orioles isn't easy - Kevin Van Valkenburg, The Baltimore Sun

[flashjordnk]

After this year if he keeps on hitting like this, he's a bust. Plain and simple. We can't afford a black hole in this lineup when we expected so much more. I keep on saying this, trade Wieters now while you can still salvage a good haul.

So is the problem the back hole in our lineup or is the problem the lack of MW meeting expectations.

In 2008 Ramon Hernandez OPSed 714 over 500 PAs

2007 he OPS 714 409 PAs

In 2006 He OPS 822 over 560

In 2005 Javy Lopez OPSed 780.

Last Year Wieters OPSed 714. Are we really talking about a black hole in our lineup? Or are you comparing it to what you would have wanted to have? Or are we talking about the Orioles not turning a top 5 pick into an All Star, instead of an every day Major League player. We're not talking about a huge gap between what we used to have before and what we're getting from MW. I don't think we're quite at Black Hole level proportions.

[Stotle]

No offense, but it's called opinion based on observation and what little evidence we have. People are voicing opinions. If we can find someone to disect his swing, observe his between game routines and his in game routines, that would be great. I would think the team has people to do that, and so far, no luck.

That's fine. It just isn't convincing evidence for damning a young and talented player, though I'm sure it's therapeutic for the fan base.

[Sports Guy]

Haha. Fair enough!

My answer would be that I don't expect Wieters can be easily projected at this point. There is too great a discrepency between performance and ability for it to be as simple as "he isn't good enough." Now, maybe it ultimately ends up at that conclusion, but it shouldn't be there now. I guess I should say that aside from some general comments from people that his swing looks slow and long and he doesn't hit the ball hard, I haven't seen any real disection of his swing, his approach, his demeanor at the plate, his between game routines or his in-game routines. I think there has been some solidly reasoned guesswork stemming from results and some general observations, but nothing close to convincing evidence of a hopelessly flawed player or someone that can't figure it out.

Oh, i agree that he could turn it around.

I am not saying, in any way, that he is never going to be a good hitter.

My point has been that there are no signs of him turning it around.

If he had been hitting the cover off the ball this season but it was just right at people(ie hitting into bad luck), I would be feeling much better about him even if he had a sub 700 OPS. But so far, I see no improvement for him this year off of a year where he regressed from his rookie year. That's not a good sign.

The one thing he did last year was walk more and K less. Those 2 things are perhaps things he can build on but a declining LD% and seemingly same poor swing issues aren't good signs at all.

Hopefully he starts to get going soon and we can be done with having this doubt in our minds.

But one thing is undeniable...At this point in his career, we ALL expected him to be better with the bat than he has and at this point, we would have expected to see a catcher that should be a perennial AS. As of now, we aren't seeing any signs of that, at least offensively.

[The Rick]

This is just wrong. Maybe it's true when it comes to sports writing, but in the baseball world there are countless genuine talents and impact players that are described as having positive "intangibles".

Right, and someone like Pujols is a good example. All of the athletic skills in the world, but also great intangibles. St. Louis is a completely different team without him, for more reasons than losing his defense and his otherwordly bat.

[Sports Guy]

Why can't we estimate Wieters defensive effects?

In the past two years, Wieters has been behind the plate for 8127 plate appearances. During the same time frame, 5 other catchers caught the same pitchers infront of the same defense. If Wieters has a significant effect on pitch calling, you'd expect the offensive performance of the opposing team to be worse.

Matt Wieters: .278/.344/.449

Other Catchers: .279/.346/.464

Pretty similar. But that just captures pitch calling. As you mention, there are other aspects of catching that might prevent runs, such as controlling the running game, blocking the plate. If Wieters is significantly better, we expected a difference in overall run prevention:

ERA with Matt Wieters catching: 4.75

ERA with other catchers: 5.06

So one rough estimate is that Wieters' defense saves us about a 1/4 run per game, due primarily to his control of the running game and other attributes.

I'm sure someone can inform regarding how good an offensive catcher one as to be to create 1/4 run per game over and above what Wieters gives us offensively.

Not sure how much it matters but in defense of Wieters, his defense(in all phases) has gotten a lot better since he entered the league.

So, looking at things starting his rookie year isn't quite the same as measuring what he is doing right now.

[Stotle]

Oh, i agree that he could turn it around.

I am not saying, in any way, that he is never going to be a good hitter.

My point has been that there are no signs of him turning it around.

If he had been hitting the cover off the ball this season but it was just right at people(ie hitting into bad luck), I would be feeling much better about him even if he had a sub 700 OPS. But so far, I see no improvement for him this year off of a year where he regressed from his rookie year. That's not a good sign.

The one thing he did last year was walk more and K less. Those 2 things are perhaps things he can build on but a declining LD% and seemingly same poor swing issues aren't good signs at all.

Hopefully he starts to get going soon and we can be done with having this doubt in our minds.

But one thing is undeniable...At this point in his career, we ALL expected him to be better with the bat than he has and at this point, we would have expected to see a catcher that should be a perennial AS. As of now, we aren't seeing any signs of that, at least offensively.

I don't really take issue with any of this. I honestly don't have an opinion on whether or not there are signs of Wieters working to figure things out, or reasons to be optimistic. I just haven't focused on him so far this year aside from observing his defense/game management. Jammed up with draft stuff but I hope to carve out time to go over all of his ABs so far this year (love MLB.TV) and start to dig into this so I can stop being so wishy washy (though I'll say now I'd imagine there is a fair chance that not much can be taken away from such a small sample size).

I will honestly say that I am surprised he hasn't started hitting, but based solely on production I'm not at the point where I am disappointed. I do think he should be showing progress through this year or I'd slide over towards that more pessimistic viewpoint (again, this is solely based on the numbers).

[Sports Guy]

That's fine. It just isn't convincing evidence for damning a young and talented player, though I'm sure it's therapeutic for the fan base.

You are the scout and have the access to some of this stuff...What are you seeing? Do you see differences between him now(and in 2010) vs what he was in the minors?

I was hoping to get one of your scouting reports done on him soon.

EDIT: nevermind, see your above post.

[Stotle]

Yes, we are fans. Who are you?

Is this an acknowledgement that there isn't evidence for damning a young and talented player, though it's therapeutic for a fan base? Or are we taking another trip down RZ-tangent-lane?

[Slappy]

Why can't we estimate Wieters defensive effects?

In the past two years, Wieters has been behind the plate for 8127 plate appearances. During the same time frame, 5 other catchers caught the same pitchers infront of the same defense. If Wieters has a significant effect on pitch calling, you'd expect the offensive performance of the opposing team to be worse.

Matt Wieters: .278/.344/.449

Other Catchers: .279/.346/.464

Pretty similar. But that just captures pitch calling. As you mention, there are other aspects of catching that might prevent runs, such as controlling the running game, blocking the plate. If Wieters is significantly better, we expected a difference in overall run prevention:

ERA with Matt Wieters catching: 4.75

ERA with other catchers: 5.06

So one rough estimate is that Wieters' defense saves us about a 1/4 run per game, due primarily to his control of the running game and other attributes.

I'm sure someone can inform regarding how good an offensive catcher one as to be to create 1/4 run per game over and above what Wieters gives us offensively.

Obviously it's very oversimplified and under-sampled, given that the other catchers sample is only about 30 games or so. But 0.31 a game is actually closer to 1/3 run per game. So 1 run every 3 games would amount to 54 runs over the course of the season. Using the 10 runs = 1 win rule, that's 5.4 wins over the course of the season - quite significant.

Again though, I don't think that any conclusions can be made over a small sample size. Most of the catcher studies I've seen are inconclusive when it comes to their effect outside of hitting. The best one is probably in "Baseball Between the Numbers".

[RandyM]

Right...This is my point. People are acting as if Wieters is the only guy in MLB who works well with his pitching staff. People are really starting to go overboard with this stuff.

People are are all about making excuses for their own players. If Wieters was not on the O's and we were talking about him, they would be saying exactly what you are saying.

I am not going to call Wieters a bust yet, but I am highly concerned. I don't think the O's can consistently compete if Wieters is not a top 3 or 4 offensive catcher. Is it possible, maybe, but not realistically. A lot more things that are not probable would have to go their way.

People don't realize that Wieters is our Trump card. If he is just better than average, that really won't work for this team to be a consistent winner against the Sox and Yanks.

[Sports Guy]

Some career power numbers for Wieters in college:

Slugging%: 594

doubles: 1 every 13 at bats

homers: 1 every 20 at bats

Are these normal numbers for a college power hitter? Better than normal? Worse?

[Phantom]

Why can't we estimate Wieters defensive effects?

In the past two years, Wieters has been behind the plate for 8127 plate appearances. During the same time frame, 5 other catchers caught the same pitchers infront of the same defense. If Wieters has a significant effect on pitch calling, you'd expect the offensive performance of the opposing team to be worse.

Matt Wieters: .278/.344/.449

Other Catchers: .279/.346/.464

Pretty similar. But that just captures pitch calling. As you mention, there are other aspects of catching that might prevent runs, such as controlling the running game, blocking the plate. If Wieters is significantly better, we expected a difference in overall run prevention:

ERA with Matt Wieters catching: 4.75

ERA with other catchers: 5.06

So one rough estimate is that Wieters' defense saves us about a 1/4 run per game, due primarily to his control of the running game and other attributes.

I'm sure someone can inform regarding how good an offensive catcher one as to be to create 1/4 run per game over and above what Wieters gives us offensively.

With all due respect, you break nearly every rule of the scientific method here. Never talk to stat guys and make the sample size mistake.

Most of his defensive performance is included in known stats, and the other factors (such as pitch calling) are virtual non-factors statistically.

[Stotle]

Is a 594 slugging % for a college career looked at as good, bad or normal?

Needs to be normalized for field and schedule. What was his BA?

[Bosibus]

Some career power numbers for Wieters in college:

Slugging%: 594

doubles: 1 every 13 at bats

homers: 1 every 20 at bats

Are these normal numbers for a college power hitter? Better than normal? Worse?

Wieters had composite bats too.

[Frobby]

This is why stat guys like the things they like (i.e. measurable things). I can't tell you how much of an impact Wieters has made on our staff, but seeing as no one has ever been able to prove any sort of significant impact in that area from catchers, it's a fair guess that it's minimal.

Basically, you're asking if I'd trade intangibles for measurables (like hitting and most defense), and the answer is an easy yes. Intangibles may help us win, but they may not. Measurables we know help us win.

It cannot be measured with precision, but we will see the results of the pitching staff. If the pitching goes from considerably below average to considerably better than average, I'm willing to assume that Wieters gets some of the credit for that. But I'm still waiting to see if that actually happens.