What does this team lack that is needed for us to contend?

[Sports Guy]

I mentioned two different things here. The first is what I think is needed to be in contention for the 2nd WC. That is where you get the D.Lee equivalent line.

Because I had said, "With Scott at DH, Pie/Reimold in LF, a D.Lee equivalent (.750 to .800 OPS expected production), Hardy resigned, and no starter added; my opinion is that team should contend for that proposed 2nd Wild Card."

Your response to that is something I basically agree with. That is a 75-85 win team, similar to this year. With 85 win upside, and 89 wins basically needed for the 2nd WC... that is contention.

The second is me saying what I felt was needed to contend for the division. (With Scott at DH, an addition in LF, Fielder at 1st, Hardy resigned, and another starter added; I'd expect that team to contend for the division.)

Which happens (aside from the bullpen arms) to be basically exactly what you said. Yet, you say we are not in agreement, and that's not a contending team.

If on the high end, its an 85 win team and we need another 3-5 wins to contend, I don't see that as real contention. Being the 5th or 6th best team in the WC race doesn't mean contention to me.

TOR starter, 2-3 big bats, 2 top BP arms...That's what is needed for real contention...Not hope and pray everything goes right contention.

There are usually 4-5 teams a year that win 90+ games and usually another 2-3 that win 85-89 games. That is 6-7 teams we have to contend with to get into that upper echelon and we really need to be in the top 5 to have a real chance.

[jamalshw]

Markakis (1), Jones (2), Wieters (3), Roberts (4), Scott (5), Reynolds (6)

Matusz (7), Britton (8), Guthrie (9), Arrieta (10), Tillman (11), Bergesen (12), Johnson (13), Berken (14)

Hardy, if resigned, (15)

I wouldn't have a problem with people not including Tillman, or Bergesen... but I think both are capable of league average production as a 5th starter in the AL this year, and that is valuable piece.

I don't think the bullpen is a huge issue. As the starters improve, so will the pen. Gregg and Gonzalez are both a mess right now, but they can both contribute. Who knows what happens with Uehara for '12?

I think you are missing the point of the 15-rule. "League average" in the 5th spot doesn't qualify. The theory was that the other 10 were basically interchangable on any squad. Saying someone is "league average" is outright admitting they are in line with any other team.

Here's how I see it:

We are set with what CAN be considered solutions at C, 2B, RF, CF, SS (if we resign Hardy), LF/DH (with Scott, Reimold, and/or Pie we can get at least one). That leaves 1B, 3B and LF/DH. I think Reynolds (when it's all said and done in 2011) could be on the list of 15, meaning we need at least two more quality offensive players (if we resign Hardy).

On the pitching end, we have Matusz and Britton that look to be 2 of the 3. In the pen is where he have the issue.

All in all, reverting back to the OP. The biggest weakness in this team moving foward is the bullpen, a legit ace, and a bat that can define the line-up. Pretty big order.

[JeterJumps]

Tillman, BB, BRob, Scott, JJ and Berken don't belong IMO.

I agree with all of this except Berken. After his struggles last season (and before he got injured) he started showing some strong bullpen stuff.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with all of this except Berken. After his struggles last season (and before he got injured) he started showing some strong bullpen stuff.

He has a chance to be that 3rd BP arm. Right now, he isn't that pitcher but he can be.

[Sports Guy]

In 2010: 4 teams won 90 games. 3 other teams won 85+

In 2009: 3 teams won 90 games. 3 other teams won 85+

In 2008: 3 teams won 90 games. 4 other teams won 86+

In 2007: 4 teams won 90 games, all were Division Winners or WC. 2 other teams won 85+

In 2006: 5 teams won 90 games, 4 were Division Winners or WC. 3 other teams won 86

If you win 90 games in the AL, you are typically going to win your division. If you don't you are highly likely to grab the 1st Wild Card.

At 85 wins you are likely one of three teams competing for the 2nd WC, with the winner likely to have 89.

Oh reallly? How many times has 90 wins won the AL East in the last 10 years?

[NewMarketSean]

90 wins will not win the AL East and most of the time not win you the WC.

[clapdiddy]

I think if the Orioles are more competitive, 90 wins could win you the AL East. The O's have been a punching bag for AL East teams.

[Orioles0615]

This team lacks a legit all star , whether it be a pitcher or a position player. Someone who puts up great numbers and can be a leader. I am tired of every year of our all star on the all star team only being there because every team is required to be represented. Which by the way I think is a good rule. I think every team out there has at least one legit all star on their team but us

[Sports Guy]

I was talking about the American League over the last 5 years. Yes, it has taken more to win the East.

If there is a 2nd WC, the mantra you have had about the O's having to build to be one of the two best teams in the sport will be irrelevant.

If there is a 2nd WC, the O's will have to be good enough to finish 3rd in the AL East, and be better than the 2nd place teams in the Central and West.

There is more than enough talent existing on the roster for the O's to annually be in that mix.

There is enough existing talent if they augment it with more talent.

There isn't enough talent by itself.

[Slappy]

90 wins will not win the AL East and most of the time not win you the WC.

But it will win you the 2nd wild card most of the time. If it existed:

2010: AL = Boston 89 wins, NL = San Diego 90 wins

2009: AL = Texas 87 wins, NL = San Fran 88 wins

2008: AL = Yankees 89 wins, NL = Mets 89 wins

2007: AL = Tigers/Mariners 88 wins, NL = Mets 88 wins

2006: AL = White Sox 90 wins, NL = Phillies 85 wins

2005: AL = Indians 93 wins, NL = Phillies 88 wins

To win that second wild card, getting to 90 wins gives you a very good chance. It's a combination of putting together a good team, getting lucky yourself with performances and health, and getting lucky by other teams failing with performances and health.

The first we can handle and I believe for the most part have done okay with. The second and third just have not panned out so far.

[jamalshw]

League average production from a 5th starter does not equate to outright admitting they are in line with any other team. Many teams won't be able to claim that league average production.

True, just like many teams will have above league average production. That is the beauty of league average, it is--in fact--average. In order to contend, we need to have ABOVE AVERAGE. I hardly think average qualifies as "very good" (as was described in the post outlining this 15-player rule).

[DannyO]

Putting aside things like more scouts, better structure, international presence, etc....

I am talking on the ML team...What upgrades and at what positions, are needed for us to contend IYO?

Nothing.

A little more patience and perspective from it's fans would make the ride more enjoyable.

[osfan83]

Nothing.

A little more patience and perspective from it's fans would make the ride more enjoyable.

And what perspective might that be? Tell me what year it will be appropriate to expect this team to at least be a .500 team. 2015? 2020? Do we demand more from our team than most other MLB cities? Are we ungrateful for the high performance of this team over the past 14 years? I could see you getting annoyed at Yankee fans who are upset with their teams play after playoff apperances in 13 out of 14 years...but O's fans? Can't tell you how many Yankee fans I know, that can't beleive I still watch O's games on a regular basis...they say, "why, what's the point, you already know how your season is going to turn out."

[Sports Guy]

Bumping this thread.....

Just curious if, after seeing this current team for another month, if you have changed your opinion(s) on what is needed for us to contend?

[Nolanseye14]

Balanced scheduling. Every team in the AL plays each other the same number of times.

Talent.