At this time of year, how many prospects would the O's be looking at for the no. 4 pick?

[Frobby]

Just curious, I'm assuming that as Draft Day gets nearer, the Orioles would have eliminated a lot of players from consideration as the no. 4 overall pick. So by now, how small would their target list be, and what would they be doing to try to rank those guys?

For example, let's say Hultzen is on their list. Would they be scouting every single start he makes from here on out? Or take Starling for example -- how many more times would they want to see him play? How much of the scouting resources are going into finalizing that pick, as opposed to scouting all the other guys who may be available in rounds 2-50?

[Stotle]

Just curious, I'm assuming that as Draft Day gets nearer, the Orioles would have eliminated a lot of players from consideration as the no. 4 overall pick. So by now, how small would their target list be, and what would they be doing to try to rank those guys?

For example, let's say Hultzen is on their list. Would they be scouting every single start he makes from here on out? Or take Starling for example -- how many more times would they want to see him play? How much of the scouting resources are going into finalizing that pick, as opposed to scouting all the other guys who may be available in rounds 2-50?

All organizations are different, but the input from the area guys are going to be close to irrelevant when you are talking about a top 5 overall pick (outside of the color provided -- confirmation of velo throughout the spring, consistency of performance, etc.). Generally the scouting director and his cross-checkers are going to be traveling all over the country to see their top targets. Area guys should basically have seen everyone on their watch list at least once, and for the guys higher on the list, multiple times.

In a class as deep up top as this class, I'd imagine BAL could have as many as 9 or 10 names still "in the discusion" for their top overall pick. My best guess would be that they narrow it down to 5 or 6 about two weeks before the draft. They are likely also doing their best to feel out what the teams ahead of them might be doing. High school players under consideration and done with their season might run through a private workout. The SD might head to a college tourney that last weekend before the draft to get a last look at multiple targets in one area. At some point in the last two weeks or so an org might bring all the area guys together in one place to run through targets for draft, to discuss players and get multiple thoughts/debate comparative reports, etc. I have not participated in the high level planning (which I assume would be the SD, cross-checker, special assistants, etc.), but my guess would be this core would discuss the overall shape of the class and come up with a general strategy that gives them the best chance to land the spread of players they are interested in.

[RVAbird]

Just curious, I'm assuming that as Draft Day gets nearer, the Orioles would have eliminated a lot of players from consideration as the no. 4 overall pick. So by now, how small would their target list be, and what would they be doing to try to rank those guys?

For example, let's say Hultzen is on their list. Would they be scouting every single start he makes from here on out? Or take Starling for example -- how many more times would they want to see him play? How much of the scouting resources are going into finalizing that pick, as opposed to scouting all the other guys who may be available in rounds 2-50?

It's my understanding that the org. has narrowed the "serious consider" list down to six guys at this point, with a few on the periphery.

[Stotle]

It's my understanding that the org. has narrowed the "serious consider" list down to six guys at this point, with a few on the periphery.

Wow! That's interesting, and little surprising to me. Still a month left in the college season and they are already down to five or six overall? I guess that could mean a few things:

1. Assuming Rendon is on the list, they could be down to four or five college arms. That would mean they are not entertaining Starling or Bundy.

2. If they are considering Rendon, Starling and Bundy, they are narrowed down to TWO OR THREE college arms alread, including (I assume) Cole and Hultzen. So not seriously considering three of Gray, Bradley, Jungmann, Bauer.

Seems early to me to be narrowed down that far -- particularly with this class. Very interesting.

[wildcard]

Here is Jeff Zrebiec's take:

Jordan said that he has a pretty good idea of the two or three players that the club will choose from, but it’s still too early to narrow it down so there remains about 10 players under consideration. He of course didn’t read me off that list, but you can assume it includes the following: Rice University third baseman Anthony Rendon; UCLA pitchers Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer; fellow college pitchers Danny Hultzen (Virginia), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) and Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech); Oklahoma prep pitcher Dylan Bundy; and Kansas high school outfielder Bubba Starling (outfielder). What I know about the above-mentioned players is pretty much what I read from Keith Law of ESPN.com, Jim Callis of Baseball America and other draft and prospect pundits, so I’m not going to pretend this early that I have any inside information on who the Orioles are going to pick. If you were to ask me what my gut feeling is, I’d tell you one of the college pitchers. I still haven’t seen a mock draft yet where Rendon falls out of the top three, and I think the Orioles would love to add a polished lefty, like Hultzen, who could move through the system reasonably quickly and join a rotation that includes southpaws Brian Matusz and Zach Britton. However, Bundy, who reportedly throws in the mid to upper 90’s, will certainly garner some consideration because the Orioles know him so well. For one, the Orioles’ Jordan lives in Oklahoma so he’s been watching him pitch for several years. Two, Bundy’s older brother, Bobby, was an 8th-round draft pick by the Orioles in 2008 and he’s currently pitching very well for Single-A Frederick. Though picking a high school pitcher may not be well received by a fan base still smarting from the 2009 selection of Matt Hobgood, Bundy could be too promising to pass up.

[Stotle]

Here is Jeff Zrebiec's take:

Jordan said that he has a pretty good idea of the two or three players that the club will choose from, but it’s still too early to narrow it down so there remains about 10 players under consideration. He of course didn’t read me off that list, but you can assume it includes the following: Rice University third baseman Anthony Rendon; UCLA pitchers Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer; fellow college pitchers Danny Hultzen (Virginia), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) and Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech); Oklahoma prep pitcher Dylan Bundy; and Kansas high school outfielder Bubba Starling (outfielder). What I know about the above-mentioned players is pretty much what I read from Keith Law of ESPN.com, Jim Callis of Baseball America and other draft and prospect pundits, so I’m not going to pretend this early that I have any inside information on who the Orioles are going to pick. If you were to ask me what my gut feeling is, I’d tell you one of the college pitchers. I still haven’t seen a mock draft yet where Rendon falls out of the top three, and I think the Orioles would love to add a polished lefty, like Hultzen, who could move through the system reasonably quickly and join a rotation that includes southpaws Brian Matusz and Zach Britton. However, Bundy, who reportedly throws in the mid to upper 90’s, will certainly garner some consideration because the Orioles know him so well. For one, the Orioles’ Jordan lives in Oklahoma so he’s been watching him pitch for several years. Two, Bundy’s older brother, Bobby, was an 8th-round draft pick by the Orioles in 2008 and he’s currently pitching very well for Single-A Frederick. Though picking a high school pitcher may not be well received by a fan base still smarting from the 2009 selection of Matt Hobgood, Bundy could be too promising to pass up.

I definitely think Bundy is a nice dark horse pick for BAL. I'd want medicals, but love his stuff, make-up and competitiveness.

[birrman54]

Here is Jeff Zrebiec's take:

Jordan said that he has a pretty good idea of the two or three players that the club will choose from, but it’s still too early to narrow it down so there remains about 10 players under consideration. He of course didn’t read me off that list, but you can assume it includes the following: Rice University third baseman Anthony Rendon; UCLA pitchers Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer; fellow college pitchers Danny Hultzen (Virginia), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) and Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech); Oklahoma prep pitcher Dylan Bundy; and Kansas high school outfielder Bubba Starling (outfielder). What I know about the above-mentioned players is pretty much what I read from Keith Law of ESPN.com, Jim Callis of Baseball America and other draft and prospect pundits, so I’m not going to pretend this early that I have any inside information on who the Orioles are going to pick. If you were to ask me what my gut feeling is, I’d tell you one of the college pitchers. I still haven’t seen a mock draft yet where Rendon falls out of the top three, and I think the Orioles would love to add a polished lefty, like Hultzen, who could move through the system reasonably quickly and join a rotation that includes southpaws Brian Matusz and Zach Britton. However, Bundy, who reportedly throws in the mid to upper 90’s, will certainly garner some consideration because the Orioles know him so well. For one, the Orioles’ Jordan lives in Oklahoma so he’s been watching him pitch for several years. Two, Bundy’s older brother, Bobby, was an 8th-round draft pick by the Orioles in 2008 and he’s currently pitching very well for Single-A Frederick. Though picking a high school pitcher may not be well received by a fan base still smarting from the 2009 selection of Matt Hobgood, Bundy could be too promising to pass up.

I think Zrebiec misses the point, the fanbase was not upset that the O's selected a high school player but rather they selected a player who was not a top ten talent. Experts did not expect Hobgood to get drafed top 15 let alone top 5. There were other high school pitchers most notably Tyler Matzek who we would have been fine with. The Hobgood pick is either a miscalculation or a signability pick. (I realize it is still early but he has shown nothing and he has already been injured)

My wish list is as follows;

1) Rendon: I doubt he falls.

2) Cole: I doubt he falls.

3) Bubba Starling: Highest ceiling in draft. 5 tool talent.

4) Dylan Bundy: Great work ethic and plus stuff.

5) Hultzen or Jed Bradley: I wont pretend to be capable of picking between these two.

The only scenario that I would be ok with selecting a college pitcher over the higher upside highschoolers is if the orioles are planning on making a serious run at fielder. If this is not the case then there is no reason to worry about an extra year two, or three of development.

[eb45]

Only people like JTrea and wildcard think picking high schoolers is always bad.

[wildcard]

I think Zrebiec misses the point, the fanbase was not upset that the O's selected a high school player but rather they selected a player who was not a top ten talent. Experts did not expect Hobgood to get drafed top 15 let alone top 5. There were other high school pitchers most notably Tyler Matzek who we would have been fine with. The Hobgood pick is either a miscalculation or a signability pick. (I realize it is still early but he has shown nothing and he has already been injured)

My wish list is as follows;

1) Rendon: I doubt he falls.

2) Cole: I doubt he falls.

3) Bubba Starling: Highest ceiling in draft. 5 tool talent.

4) Dylan Bundy: Great work ethic and plus stuff.

5) Hultzen or Jed Bradley: I wont pretend to be capable of picking between these two.

The only scenario that I would be ok with selecting a college pitcher over the higher upside highschoolers is if the orioles are planning on making a serious run at fielder. If this is not the case then there is no reason to worry about an extra year two, or three of development.

I agree with most of what you wrote. If the O's think Bundy and/or Starling can he in the majors in two years then that is fine with me. However, with the O's young core players being where they are in their contract cycle and development waiting an extra two or three year is a deal breaker for me.

[Tank]

Yeah, why wait four or five years for the next Desmond Jennings when you can just wait two or less for the next Craig Hansen..

[RVAbird]

Wow! That's interesting, and little surprising to me. Still a month left in the college season and they are already down to five or six overall? I guess that could mean a few things:

1. Assuming Rendon is on the list, they could be down to four or five college arms. That would mean they are not entertaining Starling or Bundy.

2. If they are considering Rendon, Starling and Bundy, they are narrowed down to TWO OR THREE college arms alread, including (I assume) Cole and Hultzen. So not seriously considering three of Gray, Bradley, Jungmann, Bauer.

Seems early to me to be narrowed down that far -- particularly with this class. Very interesting.

I'm obviously not privvy to the names on the list (though deduction helps narrow), but it was a list of considers beyond Cole and Rendon, who are obviously in play if they drop.

Of course there are also sleepers on the periphery and, who really knows with this organization. Take it with a grain of salt. Just thought I'd throw it out there.

[wildcard]

Only people like JTrea and wildcard think picking high schoolers is always bad.

Well you just have to do the math. Those that can't add, don't understand.

Wieters, Arrieta and Britton are a big part of the core that the O's are built on. Their agent is Scott Boras. The odds that they will extend and not go through free agency is very low.

Wieters is in his 2nd contract year. He will be a free agent after the 2015 season.

Arrieta and Britton are in their first contract year. They will be free agents after the 2016 season (If they send Britton to the minors for 20 days he will be 2017)

Sign a first round college player and his development years in the minors are probably 2012 and 2013. There is at least one and maybe two years in the majors before they are close to their peak. (See Wieters, Matusz and Arrieta to verify this). That is 2015 at a minimum. That means that college draft choice gets to help Wieters and company for a year to win a pennant. Two years for Arrieta.

The same scenario works for a high school player if he can make it to the majors in two years.

If the high school player take three or more years to get to the majors, plus develop for a year on the major league roster its 2016 or longer and Wieters in gone and maybe Arrieta and Britton as well.

So do the math and the player that can make the majors in two years benefits the O's the most to help the current team be a playoff team. That is probably a college player or an excellent high school player with a two year minor league development cycle.

The clock is ticking.

[hoosiers]

I think the Bundy angle is and has been pretty obvious. I'm sure JJ has been following Bundy for several years.

Gray would not be the prototypical JJ prospect and I would be surprised if Gray is in the discussion.

IMO, our list is Cole, Rendon, Starling, Bundy and Hultzen.

[eb45]

Well you just have to do the math. Those that can't add, don't understand.

Wieters, Arrieta and Britton are a big part of the core that the O's are built on. Their agent is Scott Boras. The odds that they will extend and not go through free agency is very low.

Wieters is in his 2nd contract year. He will be a free agent after the 2015 season.

Arrieta and Britton are in their first contract year. They will be free agents after the 2016 season (If they send Britton to the minors for 20 days he will be 2017)

Sign a first round college player and his development years in the minors are probably 2012 and 2013. There is at least one and maybe two years in the majors before they are close to their peak. (See Wieters, Matusz and Arrieta to verify this). That is 2015 at a minimum. That means that college draft choice gets to help Wieters and company for a year to win a pennant. Two years for Arrieta.

The same scenario works for a high school player if he can make it to the majors in two years.

If the high school player take three or more years to get to the majors, plus develop for a year on the major league roster its 2016 or longer and Wieters in gone and maybe Arrieta and Britton as well.

So do the math and the player that can make the majors in two years benefits the O's the most to help the current team be a playoff team. That is probably a college player or an excellent high school player with a two year minor league development cycle.

The clock is ticking.

This isn't how you draft if you want to be a winning organization.

Ideally there should be a fairly steady stream of talent coming up to the big club. Maybe there isn't for the Orioles right now, but making poor moves to compensate for previous poor moves isn't how you build a winner.

Also, in 2016, the O's could have a new core built around Machado, Schoop, Bridwell, and whatever is left of the current core. Having a guy like Starling could be better for that core than a Hultzen would be for this one.

Regardless, the makeup of the current system should be a minor concern, if one at all, and the major league team should be much further behind. Take the best player available.

My guess is that the six guys (not inc. Cole/Rendon) in consideration are Starling, Bundy, Bradley, Hultzen, Bauer, and Jungmann. Maybe Gray or Norris in place of Bauer or Jungmann.

[Stotle]

This isn't how you draft if you want to be a winning organization.

Ideally there should be a fairly steady stream of talent coming up to the big club. Maybe there isn't for the Orioles right now, but making poor moves to compensate for previous poor moves isn't how you build a winner.

Also, in 2016, the O's could have a new core built around Machado, Schoop, Bridwell, and whatever is left of the current core. Having a guy like Starling could be better for that core than a Hultzen would be for this one.

Regardless, the makeup of the current system should be a minor concern, if one at all, and the major league team should be much further behind. Take the best player available.

My guess is that the six guys (not inc. Cole/Rendon) in consideration are Starling, Bundy, Bradley, Hultzen, Bauer, and Jungmann. Maybe Gray or Norris in place of Bauer or Jungmann.

Just heard rumblings that Tampa is going to go best player available for their 10 Top 60 picks, and go signablity the rest of the draft. If true, they are going to potentially set themselves up for the next decade -- particularly arms.