Would you draft Bubba Starling?

[ccbird]

Perfectly valid questions, though I would caution that you're using very general descriptors in reference to individuals. Starling is not your prototypical "raw athlete," in that his question marks come from a lack of commitment to the game at this stage rather than an inability to pick up on the game. He's highly coachable and picks up on nuances quickly, so I don't think he necessarily comes with the risk that most guys who get described that way come with.

He is a very, very special talent. He might have the highest ceiling in the draft. He does carry more risk than a Hultzen or a Bauer. I think taking one of the top college arms is a defensible decision.

Personally, I like the potential for a truly elite, impact player at 1:4 over a good bet for above average production with the hope for something a little more. Risk/reward definitely needs to be weighed, but every pitching prospect comes with his own risk profile as well. It's an interesting conversation to have.

It is an interesting coversation to have and honestly while I try to read up on these prospects I obviously am not able to get out an view them myself which is something I'dlove to do. I always trust my gut first and foremost based on what I see when I watch a player play the game. Again, just going on what I've read,I think a few of the college pitchers(Huzleton, Gray) have elite potential themselves. For me it's not really about Bubba. I really can't argue with anything you say about him and I'd be excited if we took him. I'm generally a BPA guy. If I thought Sterling's ceiling was that much higher than Gray or Huzleton I would be for him but when things are generally close I'll take whats thought to be the safer pick and the one that fills the bigger need.

[tilgaham]

Absolutely. To be honest, I'd probably draft him before Rendon. I've never actually seen him play the field this year at Rice. His bat is fantastic, but the injuries and power outage really worry me. The hype of Starling really has me enamored.

First Plus Member Post!

[LookinUp]

I think the obvious answer to this poll is the second option about being happy in any number of directions.

Part of me really wants to continue to buy into the "grow the arms, buy the bats" philosophy. With Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and one of the top guys this year, we'd hopefully have one of the top staffs in the league. There's something to be said for that.

[Greg Pappas]

Again, the thing that worries me about Starling is the pure hitting aspect. I love the idea of going for the highest ceiling guy at #4. However, it doesn't matter how fast you run, how far you can hit the ball, or what a cannon you have for an arm, if you can't hit. Of course, Starling has shown that he can hit. But the only video I've seen of him doesn't look like he has much of a swing. It's fairly short and compact but it also looks like a swing designed to pull only, he doesn't get much load, and his plate coverage doesn't look all that great. It's said he picks up the nuances of the game very well. In that case it's interesting that he hasn't picked up a better swing at this point, unless maybe he has and he's changed since this video. I understand that he hit well with Team USA or whoever but I still worry about professional ball. Tools are great but great players hit great. I'm just not confident that he can become a great hitter. I see bust in him more than any other player being talked about at #4 or even in the top 10-15. I mentioned the Stanford QB that the White Sox drafted. Name escapes me right now. Drew Henson also comes to mind.

Joe Borchard?

[Sports Guy]

Again, the thing that worries me about Starling is the pure hitting aspect. I love the idea of going for the highest ceiling guy at #4. However, it doesn't matter how fast you run, how far you can hit the ball, or what a cannon you have for an arm, if you can't hit. Of course, Starling has shown that he can hit. But the only video I've seen of him doesn't look like he has much of a swing. It's fairly short and compact but it also looks like a swing designed to pull only, he doesn't get much load, and his plate coverage doesn't look all that great. It's said he picks up the nuances of the game very well. In that case it's interesting that he hasn't picked up a better swing at this point, unless maybe he has and he's changed since this video. I understand that he hit well with Team USA or whoever but I still worry about professional ball. Tools are great but great players hit great. I'm just not confident that he can become a great hitter. I see bust in him more than any other player being talked about at #4 or even in the top 10-15. I mentioned the Stanford QB that the White Sox drafted. Name escapes me right now. Drew Henson also comes to mind.

Yea, this is what makes me go back and forth on him.

Not to mention, our organization blows when it comes to developing hitters.

The talent is there though, no doubt about that...But there are some concerns. If I were TB, Atlanta or some team like that...I would draft him in a second. But the Orioles? That is what causes pause for me.

[SrMeowMeow]

Yea, this is what makes me go back and forth on him.

Not to mention, our organization blows when it comes to developing hitters.

The talent is there though, no doubt about that...But there are some concerns. If I were TB, Atlanta or some team like that...I would draft him in a second. But the Orioles? That is what causes pause for me.

I hear this a lot, but which big-time hitting prospects have we really busted on? Who comes after Rowell? We've definitely busted plenty of highly touted pitching prospects.

[Sports Guy]

I hear this a lot, but which big-time hitting prospects have we really busted on? Who comes after Rowell? We've definitely busted plenty of highly touted pitching prospects.

Well, they turned Bell into a shell of who he was with the Dodgers.

Wieters hasn't exactly become the hitting stud he was supposed to.

You mentioned Rowell.

[SrMeowMeow]

Well, they turned Bell into a shell of who he was with the Dodgers.

Wieters hasn't exactly become the hitting stud he was supposed to.

You mentioned Rowell.

Hard to make a case that we somehow messed Wieters up...more that expectations just got out of control. And do you really think that some element of Orioles coaching is responsible for Bell? He was always a high strikeout guy, and got exposed and embarrassed in the majors. But it's not like we broke him on the way there...his K rates in the Orioles system were right in line with his career numbers.

Anyway, that hardly stacks up against the laundry list of failed pitching prospects we have. The fact is, we just haven't had a hit on an impact talent in a long, long time. Roberts is basically it and he was never a star...Markakis could get there, but right now he's not on track. You can blame that on luck of the draw (20 top prospects busting is a pretty small sample considering they hit at a low rate anyway) or on a fundamental flaw in the O's development system, but either way I don't see any reason to think we're particularly bad at developing hitters. There just haven't been a lot of high profile positional talents in the minors for, seriously, like the last decade, and the few we've had (really just Rowell comes to mind as a guy who's been hyped and had time to fail) have failed.

[Stotle]

Hard to make a case that we somehow messed Wieters up...more that expectations just got out of control. And do you really think that some element of Orioles coaching is responsible for Bell? He was always a high strikeout guy, and got exposed and embarrassed in the majors. But it's not like we broke him on the way there...his K rates in the Orioles system were right in line with his career numbers.

Anyway, that hardly stacks up against the laundry list of failed pitching prospects we have. The fact is, we just haven't had a hit on an impact talent in a long, long time. Roberts is basically it and he was never a star...Markakis could get there, but right now he's not on track. You can blame that on luck of the draw (20 top prospects busting is a pretty small sample considering they hit at a low rate anyway) or on a fundamental flaw in the O's development system, but either way I don't see any reason to think we're particularly bad at developing hitters. There just haven't been a lot of high profile positional talents in the minors for, seriously, like the last decade, and the few we've had (really just Rowell comes to mind as a guy who's been hyped and had time to fail) have failed.

I don't have a dog in the fight, but looking only at top prospects seems like the incorrect approach. Isn't development just as much about turning the fringe prospect into useful ML player?

[RandyM]

I don't have a dog in the fight, but looking only at top prospects seems like the incorrect approach. Isn't development just as much about turning the fringe prospect into useful ML player?

Which we have a terrible record doing. Can we take credit for Willie Harris? That is pretty bad if we need him.

Track record:

Darnell McDonald - top pick was extremely toolsy. Didn't do anything until he left the org.

Jeffrey Hammonds - this a top college guy

Kieron Pope - raw guy that has nothing

Alex Ochoa

Seems like all we do well are is SP. Should we go SPbecause of that? No,wereLly need to lookat our hitting philo in the minors and our facil/coaches.

[allstar1579]

Well, they turned Bell into a shell of who he was with the Dodgers.

Wieters hasn't exactly become the hitting stud he was supposed to.

You mentioned Rowell.

In fairness, a LARGE chunk of players drafted are going to be failures, no matter the team, or where they are drafted. Wieters is doing fine, we just overrated him a bit annointing him a savior because we were so starved for top talent. He's focused on his weakness coming so far and become a rather good defensive player, the bat will come back around.

I think Bell was just about to hit the wall a lot of prospects hit, and I'd like to think the Dodgers wouldn't have dealt him for a closer/set up man if they thought he was going to develop. He was half a player when he got here, could crush from one side, but looked foolish from the other.

Billy was one of those complete misses. You could point out Paradis, Stahl, Hale, C. Smith, and Reed all in one year, just by law of averages at least one of those 1st rounders should have worked out, but they missed.

[theobird]

Starling is from my hometown, kind of. I am from Olathe, and Olathe has grown out to engulf Gardner Kansas. I have known Starlings Dad my whole life. Bubba is a great kid, and an absolutely awesome athlete. But that may be part of the problem with drafting him. I think he is a very tough sign, because he loves football so much. It will be hard imo to pry him away from his commitment to play football at Nebraska. I am very happy for the kid, whatever he does he can't lose. He can go to college and play in the NFL if that is what he wants. He could take the money now, and go the MLB route.

If Bubba is available when the 4 pick comes up, it will be hard not to draft him. I would love for him to be an Oriole. But it won't surprise me if he slips down closer to 10, because my gut tells me he will go the college football route.

[SrMeowMeow]

I don't have a dog in the fight, but looking only at top prospects seems like the incorrect approach. Isn't development just as much about turning the fringe prospect into useful ML player?

Sure, but that's almost impossible to measure in terms of a hit rate. Focusing on top prospects gives us a way to do that.

[mcpd]

Starling is from my hometown, kind of. I am from Olathe, and Olathe has grown out to engulf Gardner Kansas. I have known Starlings Dad my whole life. Bubba is a great kid, and an absolutely awesome athlete. But that may be part of the problem with drafting him. I think he is a very tough sign, because he loves football so much. It will be hard imo to pry him away from his commitment to play football at Nebraska. I am very happy for the kid, whatever he does he can't lose. He can go to college and play in the NFL if that is what he wants. He could take the money now, and go the MLB route.

If Bubba is available when the 4 pick comes up, it will be hard not to draft him. I would love for him to be an Oriole. But it won't surprise me if he slips down closer to 10, because my gut tells me he will go the college football route.

This would be the problem I would have with drafting him. He seems to like football as much as baseball if not a little more. So if someone draft and signs him and things aren't going the way he thinks they should he could go right back to football. I don't think this organization has enough talent in it too take that chance. Especially with all the highly rated pitchers available.

[Stotle]

Sure, but that's almost impossible to measure in terms of a hit rate. Focusing on top prospects gives us a way to do that.

But it's really not a meaningful way, I don't think. There aren't enough "top prospects" introduced into systems over the same period of time to produce any meaningful data. This is an area where the anecdotal is probably more useful than the statistical.