Just don't understand the optimism about Tillman

[Sports Guy]

Seriousy - 10 starts this year and everything Bergesen did in his entire career prior to that is irrelevant? Seriously?

BB has had a few good stretches and i feel he can be a back of rotation guy...but his upside isn't higher than Tillman's and he shouldn't be in the rotation over Tillman.

[eddie83]

BB has had a few good stretches and i feel he can be a back of rotation guy...but his upside isn't higher than Tillman's and he shouldn't be in the rotation over Tillman.

His upside is irrelevant. If you think Tilly has outpitched Bergy so far fine, then he deserves the spot. It is about who the Orioles thnk is better now.

[Sports Guy]

His upside is irrelevant. If you think Tilly has outpitched Bergy so far fine, then he deserves the spot. It is about who the Orioles thnk is better now.

This is poor thinking.

First of all, Tillman is pitching better.

Secondly, Tillman needs experience and more games and because of that upside, he should get it.

Earlier in the year, Tillman was ahead of BB in the eyes of Buck. Should we think that has changed?

[eddie83]

This is poor thinking.

First of all, Tillman is pitching better.

Secondly, Tillman needs experience and more games and because of that upside, he should get it.

Earlier in the year, Tillman was ahead of BB in the eyes of Buck. Should we think that has changed?

No it's not. Buck didn't come here for the same old garbage. What does his upside have to do with right now, nothing. I don't think experience is his problem it is his stuff and command. He can't command his fastball that has nothing to do with experience, that is a flaw.

Once again it is not like Bergy has pitched great and if that is your argument then fine.

[bluedog]

I like how you bring up his hits but ignore that his BABIP is unlucky while carrying a good LD%. But since you are so against Tillman, I can see why you would ignore things that make your argument look so poor.

I am not against Tillman. I've said this over and over. You'll ignore it this time just like you've ignored it every other time I've said it.

I believe he might be better out of the pen in lower leverage situations.

So stop claiming things I haven't said.

[Sports Guy]

I am not against Tillman. I've said this over and over. You'll ignore it this time just like you've ignored it every other time I've said it.

I believe he might be better out of the pen in lower leverage situations.

So stop claiming things I haven't said.

As VaTech pointed out, you didn't point out anything about Tillman in your OP to make anyone think you support him(or whatever term you want to use).

What you have done is backpedal when shown how poor your argument is and now you are trying to play it off as if he iss omeone you think can have a role in this team.

[bluedog]

If you think that's what he meant you aren't paying attention.

Then please enlighten me. What did he mean?

[bluedog]

As VaTech pointed out, you didn't point out anything about Tillman in your OP to make anyone think you support him(or whatever term you want to use).

What you have done is backpedal when shown how poor your argument is and now you are trying to play it off as if he iss omeone you think can have a role in this team.

LOL - keep telling yourself and maybe it will magically come true.

[Sports Guy]

I think most everyone knows that I feel strongly that Bergesen is a superior option to Tillman in the 5th starter role, primarily because of Tillman's inability to consistently get beyond the 5th inning as a starter and the pressure that puts on our bullpen. But so many people on OH feel that Tillman is the far superior choice to stay in the rotation when Matusz returns that I've been wondering if my opinion is flawed or biased in some way.

So in an attempt to be as objective as possible, I went into tonight's game with the A's determined to keep an open mind about Tillman and try to see why people are so enamored with him relative to Bergesen.

And so far tonight, I simply don't see it. He's needed one pitch short of 70 pitches to get through 3 innings against one of the worst offensive teams in the majors, in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the AL.

His fastball looks mediocre at best, has topped out at 90 mph and he's thrown several fastballs at 86 mph. He doesn't seem to have command of his fastball and hasn't shown the ability to spot it with any consistency.

He has repeatedly fallen behind hitters throwing pitches no where near the strike zone and when he does get ahead instead of challenging the hitter, more often than not he nibbles to a full count.

To his credit, he's shown some excellent off-speed pitches. But with one exception he's not been able to throw off-speed pitches for third strikes.

Somehow, he's kept the O's in the game and only given up 1 earned run (so far) but nothing looks easy.

I just don't see any signs whatsoever that Tillman has progressed as a starter. The A's are shooting line drives all over the park tonight and as I've thought all year, it looks to me like Tillman is getting extremely lucky with hard hit ball after hard hit ball going just foul or turning into outs because they are hit right at a fielder, or because a fielder (Reynolds in the 3rd, Markakis in the 4th) make great plays for him.

He's almost certainly not going to make it out of the 5th again tonight and if so, he will have gone less than 6.0 innings in 70% of his starts this year.

In his first two years, he was actually better than this year - going 6.0 innings or more in 50% (11 of 22) of his starts.

So in terms of his ability to go deep into games he seems to have regressed this year, not improved. All of his other peripherals may have improved slightly this year, but he's required more pitches per inning to accomplish a modest improvement in other areas.

He's now pitched 32 major league starts and he's averaging 5.01 innings per outing. That's a fairly sizable sample. His WHIP hasn't improved in three years (in 2011 its 1.557, actually higher than his career 1.546). He has a career .316 winning percentage -- in large part because he can't stick around long enough to actually qualify for a win or give his team enough time to get him a lead. His ERA may be slightly better, but even that's not very impressive at just under 5.00 - one bad outing and he'll be back at his career ERA of 5.43.

So where is this improvement everyone is talking about? I remember a lot of people complaining about Bergesen and other pitchers because they didn't have a power fastball in the mid to upper nineties and using that as evidence that they weren't legitimate prospects or that they had very limited upside.

So now we have a pitcher with a career 5.50 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .316 win %, who barely averages a shade over 5 IPs per start and whose fastball sits at 88 as often as it sits at 92, and somehow everyone is feeling giddy about his progress and upside?

I don't see anything that suggests to me that Tillman is a long term solution as a starter for this team. He's teased us with a handful of brilliant starts (the Rays this year, Texas last year, a no hitter in the minors) but even in games where he's looked dominant, he's never shown even average command.

So as I've been writing this post, Tillman's night has run its course. He's being lifted after 4 1/3 innings having walked the last two batters he faced. He's given up 6 hits and 3 walks to the A's and dodged several bullets on hard hit balls that went for outs. If the pen gets him out of this bases loaded jam without surrendering a run it will LOOK like Tillman was effective again tonight (1 ER in 4.1 innings) when in fact he was lucky.

Just like he's been lucky all season.

Point out to me, and others, where you support Tillman in this post and where you mention the BP aspect of things?

[BaltimoreTerp]

Then please enlighten me. What did he mean?

You seem to need a lot of things pointed out to you tonight.

[sangar]

Give it up bluedog.

You've lost this argument.

[bluedog]

You seem to need a lot of things pointed out to you tonight.

Try again. Claiming something and then avoiding to actually explain it over and over again isn't really an effective method of proving your point. But that's the MO of both you and SG - say things as if they are facts, call anyone that offers an opposing view and idiot, scoff at any explanation they try provide, fail to provide any kind of proof to back up your own opinions (yes they are opinions, not facts) and then make snide comments over and over until whoever it is relents and goes away.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Try again. Claiming something and then avoiding to actually explain it over and over again isn't really an effective method of proving your point. But that's the MO of both you and SG - say things as if they are facts, call anyone that offers an opposing view and idiot, scoff at any explanation they try provide, fail to provide any kind of proof to back up your own opinions (yes they are opinions, not facts) and then make snide comments over and over until whoever it is relents and goes away.

Answer SG's post above and I might take you seriously.

Oh, and I'd be curious to hear your opinions of everyone else who is opposing you in this thread, often with the same questions as me and SG? I mean, I know you aren't trying to evade a debate with an ad hominim attack, right?

[bluedog]

Point out to me, and others, where you support Tillman in this post and where you mention the BP aspect of things?

You are correct. In that one solitary post out of all the posts I've made about Tillman, I didn't mention moving him to the pen. I'm so ashamed.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2463122#post2463122

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2463089#post2463089

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2463089#post2463089

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2462795#post2462795

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2462826#post2462826

All discussions of moving Tillman to the pen and indications that I believe he would be effective there. But I'm sure you'll come up with some logic to suggest all those posts were backpedaling.

[Singleton]

He's given up more hits per nine innings and his WHIP is higher this year than his career average. So giving up more hits and less walks is kind of a wash in my book. And before we hand out any prizes on his reduction in walks, he's moved from horrible in 2010 (5.8 BB / 9) to merely atrocious in 2011 (3.8 BB / 9). His 2011 walk rates are an increase over his 2009 numbers, which doesn't show progress, it shows that he is simply less bad than he was last year, but is still regressing overall.

He's given up less home runs which is a promising sign, but its a small sample size (10 games) and I'm not sure this is due to much improvement on Tillman's part. Offense is down throughout the league. If Tillman maintains that stat for 30 starts, then I'll get on the bandwagon that he's learned to minimize HRs.

The ERA change represents a small improvement (again sample size) that might have more to do with how well relievers have done preventing inherited runners to score (Simon prevented 3 from scoring last night - but I haven't taken the time to look at all his starts this year and last to see how they compare) and not be attributable to Tillman as all. Tillman could have easily have given up 7 or 8 runs last night given how poorly he pitched. He's had several games this year where he pitched like a 6.00 ERA pitcher and somehow gave up only a run or two.

So from the stats I'VE looked at - Tillman's WHIP is up and his IP per start are down. I'll concede your stats - why were you so careful about selectively ignoring any negative stats that didn't support your theory?

And why were you still not willing (or able) to point to anything Tillman actually did in any of his last three starts that was clear evidence of progress? Perhaps because there hasn't been any progress?

His WHIP over his last 14.1 innings is 1.77. He's giving up nearly 2 runners per inning pitched. This has been masked by the fact he's only given up 3 runs during that span, but its not because he's been dominant or even particularly effective. He has been extremely lucky. If you watched the last three games you would have seen a pitcher who was constantly in trouble, inning after inning after inning and who almost never challenged hitters, even when he was way ahead in the count.

That doesn't look like progress to me - it looks an awful lot like regression.

You asked to be shown where he's made progress and I showed it to you. I didn't focus on 3 games because it's a smaller sample size. Why focus on 3 as opposed to 2, 4, or 10? My post noted specifically that he "isn't where we want him to be" which references some negative stats.

I think everyone here acknowledges that he needs to throw more strikes and work deeper into games. There is no argument. But if you can be a bit more open minded and notice some things that have improved -- such as fewer walks and homes -- you might be able to acknowledge there's a chance -- maybe even a decent chance that Tillman could improve in other areas.