Just don't understand the optimism about Tillman

[bluedog]

You asked to be shown where he's made progress and I showed it to you. I didn't focus on 3 games because it's a smaller sample size. Why focus on 3 as opposed to 2, 4, or 10? My post noted specifically that he "isn't where we want him to be" which references some negative stats.

I think everyone here acknowledges that he needs to throw more strikes and work deeper into games. There is no argument. But if you can be a bit more open minded and notice some things that have improved -- such as fewer walks and homes -- you might be able to acknowledge there's a chance -- maybe even a decent chance that Tillman could improve in other areas.

I'll happily acknowledge that Tillman can improve in every area. I'll also happily acknowledge that I hope he DOES improve in every area. I personally haven't seen it this year and I am puzzled that others have. I seriously don't understand what others are seeing. I watched last night with an open mind and didn't see it. I didn't see it in his last two starts and other than the 6 inning no hitter and one other game, I haven't seen it in any of his other 8 starts.

So you aren't concerned that his BB/9 is worse than his rookie season? You feel that's improvement? (I'm being serious, not condescending).

And you believe that his increase in WHIP and H/9 are not noteworthy? Those don't appear to you as negatives? (Again, seriously asking).

I am very happy to see his HR / 9 going way down. That's a significant stat. If he sustains that, it could be very telling.

But I'm still waiting for someone to point out exactly what they've seen in games that indicates real progress.

[Genya]

You asked to be shown where he's made progress and I showed it to you. I didn't focus on 3 games because it's a smaller sample size. Why focus on 3 as opposed to 2, 4, or 10? My post noted specifically that he "isn't where we want him to be" which references some negative stats.

I think everyone here acknowledges that he needs to throw more strikes and work deeper into games. There is no argument. But if you can be a bit more open minded and notice some things that have improved -- such as fewer walks and homes -- you might be able to acknowledge there's a chance -- maybe even a decent chance that Tillman could improve in other areas.

Can he though? He had a 3.5 BB/9 in his minor league career, and that was fine because he was striking out ~9.2K/9 innings. In the majors though, he's striking out between 5-6 per 9 IP (6.0 this year). I understand his potential if he begins to strike guys out like he did in the minors, but I just don't see his stuff being that effective vs. major leaguers to bump his K rate 50% from what it is now.

[Singleton]

I'll happily acknowledge that Tillman can improve in every area. I'll also happily acknowledge that I hope he DOES improve in every area. I personally haven't seen it this year and I am puzzled that others have. I seriously don't understand what others are seeing. I watched last night with an open mind and didn't see it. I didn't see it in his last two starts and other than the 6 inning no hitter and one other game, I haven't seen it in any of his other 8 starts.

So you aren't concerned that his BB/9 is worse than his rookie season? You feel that's improvement? (I'm being serious, not condescending).

And you believe that his increase in WHIP and H/9 are not noteworthy? Those don't appear to you as negatives? (Again, seriously asking).

I am very happy to see his HR / 9 going way down. That's a significant stat. If he sustains that, it could be very telling.

But I'm still waiting for someone to point out exactly what they've seen in games that indicates real progress.

I don't know any other ways to say this. Yes, he's giving up more hits than I'd like and he's walking more as well. It's very definately a concern!

I see the issues. Everyone sees the issues.

Some of us can see some positives like the reduced homer rate, reduced BBs and ERA and see reason for optimism.

If these were his stats and he was 28 years old, I'd be extremely concerned and be about ready to try something else. But he's not 28 -- he's 23. Not many pitchers can pitch in the Majors at age 23 and have any kind of success Not many can pitch 50 innings with games against the Red Sox and Yankees and only give up 2 homers and have a decent k/bb ratio.

So with all this -- and given that we are a team that is not going to make the playoffs -- I'd like to see Tillman keep starting at the bigs.

Maybe you're right -- he will deteriorate and we will know with more certainty that we can't count on him for next year.

But given his full collection of stats -- including the good -- maybe he will improve even more and we will be more confident that he can fit somewhere in our rotation in the future. If this happened, it would have huge implications for how we proceed -- and I want more info/data which only comes with more big league starts.

[bluedog]

Answer SG's post above and I might take you seriously.

Oh, and I'd be curious to hear your opinions of everyone else who is opposing you in this thread, often with the same questions as me and SG? I mean, I know you aren't trying to evade a debate with an ad hominim attack, right?

His post is answered.

I'm happy to respond to any opinion about Tillman you want to propose. I have no intent of evading any question.

Here's a preemptive attempt to address many of the opposing opinions people have posed:

1. Tillman is only 23 years old and has only pitched 32 starts and its too early to give up on him.

I do not propose giving up on him. I propose the POSSIBILITY of moving him to the pen in a lower pressure role because it might allow him to work on getting outs more efficiently. He may be trying to hard to be perfect as a starter because he doesn't have faith in his pitches and reducing the pressure on him might give him the opportunity to flourish.

2. Tillman has progressed as a pitcher this year.

I don't see this. I've tried to see what you guys are seeing, but watching (and re-watching) his starts, I see a pitcher who is not better than he was his rookie season and who is in fact becoming less effective as a starter.

3. Tillman can't / shouldn't pitch out of the pen.

To me, a starter needs to consistently get through 6 innings and sometimes get into the 7th or 8th. Tillman has done this in 30% of his starts this year. He's "kept his team in games" but consistently has to turn the game over to our middle relief core which is horrible. If he's a guy that can consistently work multiple innings, has a bulldog mentality and can work around trouble, then wouldn't he make a good candidate for the pen?

4. Tillman has higher upside than Bergesen.

I've agreed that this is the case in numerous posts prior to this thread. Happy to link to them if you wish.

5. The O's are better off long term leaving Tillman in the rotation.

I think until the O's are out of the playoff race (which SG will say they were out of it before the first game was played - but I disagree), the O's need to play to win now and not sacrifice winning to player development. I think Tillman needs to be used wherever he will be most effective for the O's. Success breeds success - a 4 inning, 1 Run relief effort is a huge success, a 4 inning 1 Run start is a letdown. Until Tillman shows he can pitch more efficiently, put him in a position (long relief) where the way he is pitching now is of maximum benefit to the team.

What other questions you want me to address? Happy to address them all.

[bluedog]

Give it up bluedog.

You've lost this argument.

My reputation has gone up in this thread and especially the last couple of pages. So there are people out there lurking who seem to believe I am making valid, or at least worthwhile points (its not an argument in my book). And I'm sure that SG will offer some snide comment about me referencing my reputation gain and how stupid that is as a metric for how a discussion is going.

Just because there are a few people who shout loud enough to drown out what anyone else says, doesn't mean they are right. This is supposed to be a forum for open discussion on topics related to the Orioles and baseball. Anyone should be able to offer their opinion and have that opinion discussed in a respectful, considerate manner.

In my OP, I offered what I believed to be a reasoned post on why I feel that Tillman is not progressing as a starter and asked for others to provide me with their opinions on why I was wrong. There was never any need for this discussion to get unfriendly or adversarial - but some people prefer to leave a bloody body in the corner when they could simply be friendly and offer another point of view.

So I haven't lost anything - this isn't a contest. I've stated my opinion and listened to other's opinion.

[bluedog]

I second this. Bergy has an opportunity to stay in the rotation with a good outing tonight. Let's see what he does with it.

He didn't do enough with it. He kept us in the game, but he needed to go 7.0, save the pen and give up two runs or less to really make a statement and he failed to do that.

I'm beginning to think that both Tillman and Berge should go to the pen. One of the announcers (not sure if it was Palmer or not) seemed to indicate that Klein was actually being considered as a candidate for the O's rotation, which was pretty surprising. I wonder if this was pure speculation or if there's something behind it?

[sangar]

He didn't do enough with it. He kept us in the game, but he needed to go 7.0, save the pen and give up two runs or less to really make a statement and he failed to do that.

I'm beginning to think that both Tillman and Berge should go to the pen. One of the announcers (not sure if it was Palmer or not) seemed to indicate that Klein was actually being considered as a candidate for the O's rotation, which was pretty surprising. I wonder if this was pure speculation or if there's something behind it?

I believe Jordan said something to that effect when we drafted Klein

[OFFNY]

Watching Tillman pitch is like watching paint dry. Whether you like him or not, he's tough to watch.

I don't have a problem watching any Oriole pitcher. When they go into their full windups in those orange and black uniforms, a photo would make for a great baseball card. For me, what is sometimes tough to watch is what happens to the ball after it hits the opponents' bats. THAT can be tough to watch, especially when the ball shoots between the infielders and the outfielders.

[Sports Guy]

You are correct. In that one solitary post out of all the posts I've made about Tillman, I didn't mention moving him to the pen. I'm so ashamed.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2463122#post2463122

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2463089#post2463089

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2463089#post2463089

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2462795#post2462795

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/110949-Just-don-t-understand-the-optimism-about-Tillman?p=2462826#post2462826

All discussions of moving Tillman to the pen and indications that I believe he would be effective there. But I'm sure you'll come up with some logic to suggest all those posts were backpedaling.

Good for you...But your thread title and your first post shows the purpose of this thread...Just because you later mentioned it is meaningless. Myself and others are responding to the first post and title of thread.

BTW, was BB lucky last night to only give up 3 runs(2 ER)? He had 11 baserunners in just over 5 IP. So, he was lucky too, right?

Also, BB's next start is in AAA...guess the Orioles agree with me, Stotle and others.

[cb3fsu]

And I guess that's the end of this thread. Thank you AM for ending this argument lol

[Why_Knott?]

Well, if he's getting those batters out anyway, why can't he be Jamie Moyer?

Is this a serious question?

[Moose Milligan]

Watching Tillman pitch is like watching paint dry. Whether you like him or not, he's tough to watch.

Exactly. I hate watching him pitch.

[El Gordo]

Exactly. I hate watching him pitch.

Makes me long for Steve Trachsel.:cussing:

[Why_Knott?]

Makes me long for Steve Trachsel.:cussing:

Maybe we can trade Tillman for Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore

[O-The-Memories]

Maybe we can trade Tillman for Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore

Well, I think Tillman does a little better than Scott Moore, but they both look like AAAA players to me.