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It looks like it could come down to Hultzen vs. Bundy vs. Bauer, w/outside shot at Rendon

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Heard last night that PIT was leaning HEAVY towards Cole -- they are supposed to get details on bonus tomorrow night. Barring anything crazy (Strasburg + money) they are supposedly going to grab Cole.

The split comes based on what SEA does. Supposedly it's Rendon vs. Starling, and Starling's bonus vs. Rendon's medicals (both releasing to Seattle tomorrow night) will likely be the deciding factor.

If SEA goes Rendon, Arizona is supposedly 60/40-ish in favor of Bauer over Hultzen. That means Baltimore choosing between Hultzen and Bundy.

If SEA goes Starling, Arizona may jump on Rendon, but I have heard they are essentially a lock for "pitcher / pitcher" with their first two picks. That would leave Baltimore to choose between Rendon/Bundy and whichever of Bauer/Hultzen Arizona doesn't take.

Obviously all this is fluid, but I lean towards things going Cole, Rendon, Bauer/Hultzen and Baltimore getting one of Bauer/Hultzen/Bundy.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Might end up being someone we never heard of. So they can spend over in later rounds.

God I hope not.

I think it is safe to assume that I'll have heard of whoever is selected. I'd also say it's pretty safe to assume it will be one of Cole/Rendon/Hultzen/Bauer/Bradley/Bundy and maybe Jungmann.

There is too much prototypical Baltimore talent out there for them to go down the draft list to grab someone "signable".

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Obando Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

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That is music to my ears because Hultzen, Bauer, and Bundy are the 3 pitchers I most want the O's to select. I'd be happy with any of those 3, as I think all 3 will be very good major league pitchers and will get there fairly quickly.

Not only is Hultzen a very polished left-handed pitcher with a great performance track record, he also is a local kid, which adds to his appeal.

Bauer should only be a sophomore and just feels like a pitcher that has "it" due to both outstanding performance, stuff, strict workout regimen, and brains. I just can't see this kid failing unless he has trouble adjusting to the pro environment (based on his routine) or he gets hurt. However, I don't think he's any more of any injury risk than any other pitcher, despite his fairly heavy workload. This kid is Lincecum, Mussina, & Maddux rolled into one.

Bundy is clearly the best HS pitcher in the draft and everything I've read about him just screams that he is special, in terms of stuff, performance, work ethic, poise, maturity, and brains -- which are all very advanced for a high school pitcher. It sounds like he should move quickly for a high schooler and could follow a path similar to Rick Porcello, who was in the majors by age 20. To top it off, his brother is already in the O's system and Joe Jordan is very familiar with him, so this just seems like a perfect match for all those reasons.

Coming into the season, I would have never thought I'd pass on Rendon for ANY player in the draft, but if Rendon is still on the board as well as these 3 pitchers, I think I'd take all 3 pitchers before him, primarily because I'm concerned about his injuries and his extreme drop in power this year. I know he's been pitched around a lot and has drawn the most walks in college baseball (which is a positive), but if he's the stud that everyone says he is, I'd expect his numbers to still be in line with what they were in his freshman & sophomore seasons (despite the injuries), and they simply are not, which concerns me a bit. The truly great ones always have the numbers in the end, despite adversity. And I don't want to hear about how it's because of the change in bats, because all hitters are having to deal with that and players are still hitting double digit home runs.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Heard last night that PIT was leaning HEAVY towards Cole -- they are supposed to get details on bonus tomorrow night. Barring anything crazy (Strasburg + money) they are supposedly going to grab Cole.

The split comes based on what SEA does. Supposedly it's Rendon vs. Starling, and Starling's bonus vs. Rendon's medicals (both releasing to Seattle tomorrow night) will likely be the deciding factor.

If SEA goes Rendon, Arizona is supposedly 60/40-ish in favor of Bauer over Hultzen. That means Baltimore choosing between Hultzen and Bundy.

If SEA goes Starling, Arizona may jump on Rendon, but I have heard they are essentially a lock for "pitcher / pitcher" with their first two picks. That would leave Baltimore to choose between Rendon/Bundy and whichever of Bauer/Hultzen Arizona doesn't take.

Obviously all this is fluid, but I lean towards things going Cole, Rendon, Bauer/Hultzen and Baltimore getting one of Bauer/Hultzen/Bundy.

Basically been hearing the same. Despite all the talk of alternatives I think PIT has been heavy on Cole for some time.

The most likely scenario, IMO, is the one I've stuck to for a couple of months: Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Bundy. If ARI goes Bauer, it will be a toss up between Hultzen and Bundy for BAL at 1:4.

I've heard that JJ is considering Bauer and Archie Bradley as backup college and HS pitchers if Hultzen and Bundy are asking for the moon.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Haven't seen official asking price on Hultzen but rumor was he's mentioned 8 figures. I think that's ridiculous and that he'll end up settling for 6 MM or so, depending on where he's popped.

There were those ridiculous Bundy rumors (30 MM). Bundy has more leverage and (IMO) more upside, and could come close to wrangling 8 figures. I think he'll be a tougher sign. His father, Denver, is heavily involved with BBI and is a hard ass (in the best possible way :) ).

Wouldn't be surprised to see, once cash considerations are in place, JJ go for Hultzen over Bundy if both are available. Fits the mold, polished and close, slightly easier sign. Wouldn't be too upset if the gulf is 3+ MM, though I'd prefer Bundy.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Bigger question to me...Bundy, Hultzen and Rendon sitting there for the O's...who are they taking?

My gut tells me that JJ would jump on Rendon. I think he remembers Wieters falling to 1:5 and, even if Wieters hasn't turned into a superstar, values polished college bats who also provide premium defense. I think he took Matusz over Smoak because Smoak was limited to 1B and depended more heavily on the bat developing.

The difference here is that Matusz is better than Hultzen and Rendon is better than Smoak. I'd like to think he takes Rendon.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Haven't seen official asking price on Hultzen but rumor was he's mentioned 8 figures. I think that's ridiculous and that he'll end up settling for 6 MM or so, depending on where he's popped.

There were those ridiculous Bundy rumors (30 MM). Bundy has more leverage and (IMO) more upside, and could come close to wrangling 8 figures. I think he'll be a tougher sign. His father, Denver, is heavily involved with BBI and is a hard ass (in the best possible way :) ).

Wouldn't be surprised to see, once cash considerations are in place, JJ go for Hultzen over Bundy if both are available. Fits the mold, polished and close, slightly easier sign. Wouldn't be too upset if the gulf is 3+ MM, though I'd prefer Bundy.

Hultzen floated to a top 3 team "at least $13 M", but the specific number is determined by breakdown between ML deal and bonus.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Hultzen shouldn't get more than BMat, should he?

I don't think he's better than Matusz, but that was three years ago. Bonuses have inflated and new precedents have been set since then.

Slot for 1:4 will be about 3 MM. Last year KC cut a slot deal with Colon, but Machado was drafted 1:3 and received a 5+ MM bonus at the midnight hour.

Early in the season it looked like Hultzen might be a nice slot pick for a top 5 selection, but his stock has just gotten so inflated since then. I think if he is a top 3 pick he'll get a 6-8 MM bonus. If he goes 4 or 5 he'll get anywhere from 4 to 7 MM.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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I don't think he's better than Matusz, but that was three years ago. Bonuses have inflated and new precedents have been set since then.

Slot for 1:4 will be about 3 MM. Last year KC cut a slot deal with Colon, but Machado was drafted 1:3 and received a 5+ MM bonus at the midnight hour.

Early in the season it looked like Hultzen might be a nice slot pick for a top 5 selection, but his stock has just gotten so inflated since then. I think if he is a top 3 pick he'll get a 6-8 MM bonus. If he goes 4 or 5 he'll get anywhere from 4 to 7 MM.

Which is probably the same area as Bundy.
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