I think this winter (maybe sooner), it will be time to pick a direction

[Frobby]

I was just reading the Fielder thread, and as I was thinking about it, this winter (and maybe sooner) I think we need to get off this "middle course" we've been on. We've been trying, for years, to not go into total rebuild mode, but not get overcommitted to big time free agents, either. As I look at the other teams in our division, I just don't think it's going to work. I might have felt differently if BRob had been healthy the last two years, if Nick had blossomed into the star we all thought he would be, if Wieters was the offensive force he was projected to be, and/or if our pitching had really taken off. But those things have not happened, and even though this year's team appears to be a little better than in recent years, maybe even poised for a run at .500, it doesn't look like a team that is going to mature into a contender over the next couple of years, unless there is a major infusion of talent.

I'm sure SG will say this has been obvious all along. Well, I don't think it had to turn out this way, for the reasons I listed. But simply put, our "core" doesn't appear to be that good. Not as good as I hoped, anyway.

So, I think we need to start trading for younger guys and/or positioning ourselves to get a lot of draft picks, or we need to start spending up the wazoo on big name free agents.

[atlantaoriole]

I think the Orioles owe it to themselves and their fans to go all in. Spend the money. Get the players. They have proven they can't develop the prospects. Why not go out and sign guys like they did in the mid 90's?

[waroriole]

Why do all your posts have to have some T-shirt in them? I don't get it.

[21xxxv]

Growth the Arms, Buy Quality bats, not scrap heap. Buy the Major and Amateur Scouts. Buy the Coaches, Buy the Minor League Mentors.

[Sports Guy]

Why do all your posts have to have some T-shirt in them? I don't get it.

Its his idea of a signature I think...Not allowed and I know Paul has said something to him about it...Its pretty annoying.

As for the OP, it has been obvious for a while the Orioles were not heading into the proper direction in terms of this team and this division.

Again, the MAJOR LEAGUE foundation/core is/was in place...But we simply do not have the owner/GM combo needed to win in this division.

[waroriole]

I agree that we probably should look to head in one direction or another this winter, but I just don't see it happening. I think they'll resign Hardy, and let Lee and Vlad walk without offering arb (even if they're Type B) and just do the same thing again next year. I don't see Angelos changing paths, since we've been doing basically the same thing for 14 years. I think that he thinks that the O's are going to give him one good year doing it this way and he ain't changing until they do.

[Believer]

Its his idea of a signature I think...Not allowed and I know Paul has said something to him about it...Its pretty annoying.

As for the OP, it has been obvious for a while the Orioles were not heading into the proper direction in terms of this team and this division.

Again, the MAJOR LEAGUE foundation/core is/was in place...But we simply do not have the owner/GM combo needed to win in this division.

What level of payroll could the O's reasonably afford if attendance climbed back to the 3 million mark?

[NewMarketSean]

We're closer to another rebuild than contention. The core is mediocre. We developed some guys who would be OK bottom of the order hitters and mid-to-back of the rotation pitchers. But they are nowhere close to a core that will take a team to the playoffs.

But all of this is just talk. While Angelos is the owner and MacPhail is the GM, we won't take any major steps toward contention, whether it is through spending on free agents or investing in the minor league system, or a REAL rebuilding process. MacPhail traded 2 players in Bedard and Tejada. That was the extent of our rebuild.

There's a reason we've been the same team for 13 years. And as long as these people are in place, it will continue to be that way.

[TakebackOPACY]

I'll say it so that it's not just SG. It's been obvious all along. While I think the organization is significantly healthier than it was a few years ago despite the falling live attendance, the O's once again have to look at what to do over the next few years knowing they didn't do everything they needed to do the last few years to set themselves up. They strived for good and hoped for great.

[Believer]

I agree that we probably should look to head in one direction or another this winter, but I just don't see it happening. I think they'll resign Hardy, and let Lee and Vlad walk without offering arb (even if they're Type B) and just do the same thing again next year. I don't see Angelos changing paths, since we've been doing basically the same thing for 14 years. I think that he thinks that the O's are going to give him one good year doing it this way and he ain't changing until they do.

Couple reasons to hope for change:

1. Buck

2. Realization that the current core isn't quite what we hoped

3. It's clearer than ever that NY, Boston, Toronto and Tampa aren't cycling down. Our success will be based on doing something new - not just waiting them out.

4. Cal is coming.

[Roll Tide]

What level of payroll could the O's reasonably afford if attendance climbed back to the 3 million mark?

Well ...We could afford alot ...The Key is ...Is the owner & GM willing to pay top dollar to get the best player.

[flashjordnk]

Again, the MAJOR LEAGUE foundation/core is/was in place...But we simply do not have the owner/GM combo needed to win in this division.

Well...the regression of Nick and the absence of Roberts really highlights this. If both of these guys were performing at career average levels I don't think this would bother us as much. But their quick aging really reshapes our approach to the contracts we have to be willing to give out.

It's not really true to say our core is in place if Roberts barely plays this year and next and Markakis continues to slump. That really only leaves Jones/Wieters to sustain us in our core, and while they may be in the roster it's certainly not getting the job done.

[The Rick]

There's still unrealized upside with a lot of our core: Britton/Matusz/Arrieta/Jones/Wieters. These are the guys we need to keep, everyone else is expendable, IMO, to bring as much young talent as possible that can be here right around 2014/2015 when the next wave is here: Bundy/Machado/Schoop/Esposito.

I hope Buck's in it for the long haul and wouldn't want to leave if we took that direction.

[Slappy]

I'm sure SG will say this has been obvious all along. Well, I don't think it had to turn out this way, for the reasons I listed. But simply put, our "core" doesn't appear to be that good. Not as good as I hoped, anyway.

So, I think we need to start trading for younger guys and/or positioning ourselves to get a lot of draft picks, or we need to start spending up the wazoo on big name free agents.

The rebuild has not been a slam dunk, but it's not a failure either. The real problems have been:

- Roberts injury problems

- Nick's incredible regression

- Failure of "plug-in" free agents to perform

The young core has been fine. Britton, Matusz are what we thought they were. Arrieta is a rotation piece. Jones is breaking out this year, and I think you can kind of argue that for Wieters as well. Reimold is playing well. I think we have a competitive left side of the infield for the first time in 6-7 years.

I firmly believe if you put a top talent at 1B (like Fielder or, miraculously, Puljos), and find at least a competent 2B, you can put a team that can compete for the playoffs in 2012-13. ESPECIALLY considering the possibility of wild card expansion.

I just don't believe doing an all-out rebuild is a very successful strategy. I can only think of one team it works consistently for, and that's the Marlins. A better path is putting the best product you can on the Major League field and adding/subtracting where needed.

[NewMarketSean]

The rebuild has not been a slam dunk, but it's not a failure either. The real problems have been:

- Roberts injury problems

- Nick's incredible regression

- Failure of "plug-in" free agents to perform

The young core has been fine. Britton, Matusz are what we thought they were. Arrieta is a rotation piece. Jones is breaking out this year, and I think you can kind of argue that for Wieters as well. Reimold is playing well. I think we have a competitive left side of the infield for the first time in 6-7 years.

I firmly believe if you put a top talent at 1B (like Fielder or, miraculously, Puljos), and find at least a competent 2B, you can put a team that can compete for the playoffs in 2012-13. ESPECIALLY considering the possibility of wild card expansion.

I just don't believe doing an all-out rebuild is a very successful strategy. I can only think of one team it works consistently for, and that's the Marlins. A better path is putting the best product you can on the Major League field and adding/subtracting where needed.

You don't have to keep rebuilding. You have to keep developing players or finding talent through trades, internationally, etc. And that is something the Orioles are horrible doing.