AM on Int'l spending

[Flosman]

What really needs to be done is for MLB to establish and operate a "World League" (or some such name) wherein young and developing international players who aspire to Major League Baseball could compete. This would be somewhat similar to what the NBA and NFL have in place to scout, evaluate, and develop international talent.

And before you ask, and you will, if I knew exactly how to make this happen, I would have a nice consulting contract with MLB.

The first question is how do these kids eat while playing in the new league and why would the top guys agree to actually play games and risk showing they were not great players?

[SteveA]

I generally don't mind him ignoring the International market for the most part as I agree with his analysis. However, in order for me to feel good about that he needs to be:

working the local system to gain an advantage either through garnering extra picks al la Tampa

spending near the most in the top 5 rounds

open to signing International FA's like Sano and Chapman

He's done none of these. So, his comments are as everyone here understands, excuses.

Exactly. Let's assume for a minute that he MacPhail is 100% correct about the DR. [Just grit your teeth and do it, haters!]

Now, our goal, in fact our necessity, is to have a better farm system producing as much or more talent than our AL East opponents and

most other teams in baseball. We NEED a top 10 farm system if we are going to be competitive long term.

So we choose to minimize risk by not spending a lot of money in the DR, an area that some teams spend more in, that has produced some

great ball players, but that has some very legitimate risks involved.

OK, fine. Tell me then, what area do we excel in the realm of building a farm system, to the point where we are better than most other teams?

-- Is it our drafting?

-- Is it our manipulation of the free agent system to collect compensation picks? [hard to ask that one with a straight face]

-- Is it going overslot a lot?

-- Is there a particular international market where we are doing better than anyone else?

-- Is there a particular international market we have discovered that no one else has?

-- Are we better than other teams at coaching up and developing the talent we have?

I would posit that we are not "one of the best" in ANY particular facet of building a farm system, nor are we even very good at most of them. How are we EVER going to have a topnotch farm system if we are average or below average in terms of every aspect of building a system?

Being "risk-averse" when you aren't very good makes zero sense. When you got nothing you got nothing to lose. [Yeah, that's right, I'm bringin' the Dylan].

[JERSEYORIOLE]

The first question is how do these kids eat while playing in the new league and why would the top guys agree to actually play games and risk showing they were not great players?

They would be paid to play in this league. But honestly, it is not MLB's problem. Let these crooked agents pay them. They would have no choice but to play games, as the international draft would only be open to players that were in that league. Let these agents front the money to these kids if they have so much confidence in them. Personally, I find it funny and desperate that MLB falls for the not playing BS and hand out big bonuses based on skills. The entire system is a mess. Why a 16 tear old kid can, number one, be a free agent just because he is from the DR or Cuba is a joke. It is also a joke that he can be signed at all. Can a kid from the States be drafted at 16? Lets be honest here, it is MLB taking advantage of poorer countries. These kids don't go to school and when they dont pan out, they have nothing, no schooling, no future. You give a kid from the DR 20 grand and you hope you get lucky. The reason there is such a large percentage of DR players in baseball is not because they are better players. With the exception of the elite players, it is because teams got them alot cheaper then the can get a US kid. That US kid is going to tell you to take a hike with your 20 grand and go to college. It is simply a good business move. No different then farming manufacturing overseas. However, it is taking advantage of less fourtunate people. Knowing what little I know about PA's law firm, i would not be surprised if he is not thrilled with the system. Should it change and should there be an international draft? Of course. Will there be one no. No one wants one. The agents in the DR don't. They are afraid of having the curtain pulled back and having the wizard exposed. MLB doesn't want one, because the large percentage of players they get, they get on the cheap.

[Stotle]

OK, first I respect that you understand more about the industry than I do and like your input. However you seem to be making a circular argument. 1. We don't understand because we don't have the information available to us. 2. to be competitive teams need the top guys and need to pay the money and can identify those guys. 3. Why do these highly paid guys have a huge miss rate. Refer to step one.

Let me tell you if I tell college coaches that kids are the best ever and you just have to get them and they continually do not pan out they stop listening. I agree with AM currently the players that get huge bonuses just don't hit at a high enough rate to justify the money. If I where AM I would me trying to built a better mousetrap down there. Hoping to actually do it better. But until I could convince myself that I could pick better than the pack I would do just what he is value bets that hit on the river.

I disagree with step two. I don't think teams need expensive international free agents to compete. There are several organizations that do very little as far as "expensive" international signings. Colorado is a fantastic example. They will ocassionally sign an "expensive" international free agent, but rely almost exclusively on good scouting and value acquisitions on the international front.

[Roll Tide]

This makes me queasy. So AM gets a serious question about us being outspent in the international market and he attributes the other teams spending more to singing bonuses?

Come on! I am not a big hater on AM, but this is frustrating.

Then pay for some scouts to go sit and watch them play. What will the excuse be then? Will we then say that the competition they are facing is too weak to make a risk on signing them?

Dont we have Carlos Bernhardt ???? Isnt that his job??? What is his actual function ....Looking at players so that other teams will sign them to bonuses?

[JTrea81]

What is his actual function ....Looking at players so that other teams will sign them to bonuses?

Being buddies with Peter Angelos and being a token presence in the DR so the Orioles can say they are making an effort there.

[The Maestro]

Isn't that a case by case basis?

If you believe there is some elite talent, then you spend for it. If you don't know, go with the quantity idea.

I would like to see them spending 3-7 million on Int'l talent every year and 10+ million on amateur talent every year...Some years, depending on what's there, you spend less and some years you spend more.

I wonder what kinda shape we'd be in if we had a GM who's daring enough and an owner who cared enough to approach building a team in this manner. Oh well, dare to dream.

[Orange Line]

Hi, first post..long time lurker here on the site; reside in boston now but grew up in DC as an Os fan. not sure if people have seen this article which indicates that the Orioles don't think there is value in IFA

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12251/is-latin-talent-overpriced

by John Shepherd.

During a recent exchange with local bloggers, Matt Klentak (Orioles Director of Baseball Operations) mentioned that the Orioles contracted for a study to be done on the cost efficiency of IFAs and found that investing in Rule 4 talent made more sense

[DrungoHazewood]

I have always believed what he's said about the Dominican, but my issue is that if you aren't going to play the whole buscon game down there, what else are you doing? This organization is not aggressive about going into new markets, other than Aruba 10-15 years ago. Yes, the Dominican and Venezuela are where baseball is most popular but it is played elsewhere, too. I have been saying this for three or four years now. We could be scouting Colombia, Panama, Nicaragua, Korea and any number of other countries and we would be one of only two or three teams in each one of those places. We could set up our own facilities/youth leagues to avoid the workout warrior situation that is occurring in DR. We have one guy, I think, covering Japan and Australia, and that's cool, but not enough. We have to throw more resources at other markets if we aren't going to play in the Dominican market. And we have to, have to, have to crack Venezuela. I realize there are political issues and we're making slow progress but we need to speed things up.

And why do we never go after Cuban defectors? They play games. Fine, Chapman was a little too expensive, but there have been others. It can't just be the Angelos thing.

Exactly. Let's assume for a minute that he MacPhail is 100% correct about the DR. [Just grit your teeth and do it, haters!]

Now, our goal, in fact our necessity, is to have a better farm system producing as much or more talent than our AL East opponents and

most other teams in baseball. We NEED a top 10 farm system if we are going to be competitive long term.

So we choose to minimize risk by not spending a lot of money in the DR, an area that some teams spend more in, that has produced some

great ball players, but that has some very legitimate risks involved.

OK, fine. Tell me then, what area do we excel in the realm of building a farm system, to the point where we are better than most other teams?

-- Is it our drafting?

-- Is it our manipulation of the free agent system to collect compensation picks? [hard to ask that one with a straight face]

-- Is it going overslot a lot?

-- Is there a particular international market where we are doing better than anyone else?

-- Is there a particular international market we have discovered that no one else has?

-- Are we better than other teams at coaching up and developing the talent we have?

I would posit that we are not "one of the best" in ANY particular facet of building a farm system, nor are we even very good at most of them. How are we EVER going to have a topnotch farm system if we are average or below average in terms of every aspect of building a system?

Being "risk-averse" when you aren't very good makes zero sense. When you got nothing you got nothing to lose. [Yeah, that's right, I'm bringin' the Dylan].

Yes, and Yes. I haven't read the whole thread, but I think TGO and Steve have it nailed.

MacPhail may be right about the system in the DR. It may have evolved into a high risk area, where the dollars are currently too high for the talent being produced. At least at the high end.

But here's the crux of the problem: The Orioles have to have some kind of player acqusition and development advantage over the Yanks, Sox, Rays, and Jays or they'll be permanently in last place. How do they do that, especially if they've decided to pass on high-end talent from the DR? They have to find some kind of competitive advantage, and I'm not at all convinced they're doing that, or even attempting to.

From all the information we can see, the O's strategy is simply to outscout the rest of MLB on draft-eligible talent and hope that's enough to overcome (and then some) the fact they won't pay top dollar for international free agents. That seems outlandish. Especially considering they don't play the compensation game (and that may be going away anyway.) We already know the O's don't have as many scouts as most of the other teams in the division. It seems unlikely the O's have a corner on the quality scout market. So, to an outsider, it appears that the O's have almost no chance to have as productive a farm system as the rest of the division. And without that, and a much smaller budget than the Sox and Yanks, it's hard to see an avenue for besting the competition.

I'm with TGO - the obvious solution is to bypass the high end of the DR and take the money you're not spending there and really go after a place like Venezuela or Korea. Instead of being Kings of Aruba, find a market with some real potential and hit it HARD.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hi, first post..long time lurker here on the site; reside in boston now but grew up in DC as an Os fan. not sure if people have seen this article which indicates that the Orioles don't think there is value in IFA

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12251/is-latin-talent-overpriced

by John Shepherd.

Ok, maybe that's true. But then how do you gain an advantage over the competition? Overslots? Everybody does that now, and there may be slotting in the next CBA, eliminating the whole process. Scouting? At least on high-end talent there's no such thing as an undiscovered gem. Extra draft picks? The O's are exceptionally risk-averse when it comes to offering arbitration, and that whole process may go away in the next CBA.

The O's only significant advantage in the Rule 4 draft over the other teams in the AL East is the fact that their record is worse so they pick earlier. That's not even close to enough to overcome $100M in payroll disadvantage.

I'd also like to know if their study included the possibility of expanding existing markets to mine new talent. The talent pool isn't static, you can grow it. Other teams are doing this. The O's haven't even figured out how to maximize the existing pool.

[Frobby]

Ok, maybe that's true. But then how do you gain an advantage over the competition? Overslots? Everybody does that now, and there may be slotting in the next CBA, eliminating the whole process. Scouting? At least on high-end talent there's no such thing as an undiscovered gem. Extra draft picks? The O's are exceptionally risk-averse when it comes to offering arbitration, and that whole process may go away in the next CBA.

The O's only significant advantage in the Rule 4 draft over the other teams in the AL East is the fact that their record is worse so they pick earlier. That's not even close to enough to overcome $100M in payroll disadvantage.

I'd also like to know if their study included the possibility of expanding existing markets to mine new talent. The talent pool isn't static, you can grow it. Other teams are doing this. The O's haven't even figured out how to maximize the existing pool.

I don't think everybody does overslots -- certainly, not everyone does it to the same extent. I can't comment on what will happen in the next CBA, but if the Orioles think Rule 4 spending is more efficient, then they should actually spend the money there. I agree with SG that while the O's have been near the top in Rule 4 spending, that has mostly been driven by the fact that they have had a top 5 pick for five years in a row. They should be spending on overslots early and often, if they don't want to spend internationally.

[GoldGlove21]

The Orioles are not a well ran sports franchise at this point, but have they ever had a strong farm system? Murray, Ripken, and Mussina all came from our farm system so we could argue that we drafted and developed two Hall of Famers with the other being a fringe HOF'er. We also drafted Roberts, but a lot of teams have drafted players of his ability.

People like to say the Yankees buy all of their championships, but they have developed good talent and made great trades for other young players who weren't established. Jeter, Bernie Williams, Pettitte, Pasada, Rivera, and Cano. Jeter and Rivera might be the only Hall of Famer's in that group, but Cano, Pettite and Pasada were All-Stars. Bernie Williams was a great player from 1996-2002.

My point here is that when a team can spend more than you every year, then you had better beat them in other areas. The Orioles have got a nice nucleus with Matusz, Britton, Jones, Wieters and Markakis, but over the course of the last 18 years the Yankees have beat us in this area as well. So have the Red Sox and Rays for that matter.....

[Fan4Life]

I don't think everybody does overslots -- certainly, not everyone does it to the same extent. I can't comment on what will happen in the next CBA, but if the Orioles think Rule 4 spending is more efficient, then they should actually spend the money there. I agree with SG that while the O's have been near the top in Rule 4 spending, that has mostly been driven by the fact that they have had a top 5 pick for five years in a row. They should be spending on overslots early and often, if they don't want to spend internationally.

When they are taking the (general) consensus best player available for the first 5 rounds, then we'll feel like they are making the proper investment there. There were several players in rounds 2-5 this year that scouts like Stotle would have chosen over who the O's picked. We typically conclude it is cost that makes this happen and so the answer is no when asking if they are putting the Intl money they aren't spending into the rule 4 draft.

[nadecir]

I think what most of us can agree on is this: The last place we should be spending money, and in some cases draft picks, is for mid-tier free agents. Spending 10's of millions of dollars on free agents like Wigginton, Atkins, Izturis, Gonzalez, Gregg, Lee and Guerrero is worse than spending it on overslot draft bonuses or young international free agents or investing it on better player development.

Spending what the Orioles have spent on mid tier free agents over the last 13 years versus spending it on young player acquisition and development is a big contributing factor to where the organization is at now, both at the major and minor league levels. There is no good excuse for having the Orioles farm system ranked so low right now given the high draft choices we have had in the last 13 years.

You can argue whether investing in international free agents is a good idea, but it is difficult to argue that spending the money on the veteran free agents that the Orioles have spent money on is a better idea.

[Sports Guy]

I think what most of us can agree on is this: The last place we should be spending money, and in some cases draft picks, is for mid-tier free agents. Spending 10's of millions of dollars on free agents like Wigginton, Atkins, Izturis, Gonzalez, Gregg, Lee and Guerrero is worse than spending it on overslot draft bonuses or young international free agents or investing it on better player development.

Spending what the Orioles have spent on mid tier free agents over the last 13 years versus spending it on young player acquisition and development is a big contributing factor to where the organization is at now, both at the major and minor league levels. There is no good excuse for having the Orioles farm system ranked so low right now given the high draft choices we have had in the last 13 years.

You can argue whether investing in international free agents is a good idea, but it is difficult to argue that spending the money on the veteran free agents that the Orioles have spent money on is a better idea.

But yet some people will actually make that argument because hey, that's what the Orioles do, so therefore it is the correct move.

BTW, sometimes those mid tier FAs also cost us a pick as well, so it is even worse.