Would you make this trade with Cinci?

[flashjordnk]

Well, to me the question is, can you squeeze out a guy like Frazier in this deal and they keep the lower level prospect?

I am not sure Cinci would go for that or not but, as you said, it goes back to how they feel about their chances this year if they added these 2.

I don't know if I'm overinflating Guthrie in my mind...but I really feel like in the NL these two could make a pretty substantial difference right now for Cinci. I think the dealbreak would be much what Cinci fans are complaining about and that's Guthrie isn't really more than anything they already have. If they are giving up prospects the difference makers have to be bigger difference makers. Though Guthrie seems to peripherally be doing better than in past years. He's got a bit of an inflated BABIP. But a lower FIP. The bottom line to me in this scenario is that Guthrie isn't good enough and would undervalue the deal.

That being said Janish/Renteria are killing them at SS. Between the two of them for the year they've netted -.1 WAR. Janish is OPSing 518. Hardy has 15 more XBH than Janish and only has 7 less PAs. Hardy has extra value to them not only because he's giving above average production, but because he takes them from a negative position and turns it well into a positive.

At this point, looking a bit more at Cinci as a trade partner they probably are only going to only do this deal if Hardy is involved. And that seems to be the sticking point for most posters so far.

[Sports Guy]

I don't know if I'm overinflating Guthrie in my mind...but I really feel like in the NL these two could make a pretty substantial difference right now for Cinci. I think the dealbreak would be much what Cinci fans are complaining about and that's Guthrie isn't really more than anything they already have. If they are giving up prospects the difference makers have to be bigger difference makers. Though Guthrie seems to peripherally be doing better than in past years. He's got a bit of an inflated BABIP. But a lower FIP. The bottom line to me in this scenario is that Guthrie isn't good enough and would undervalue the deal.

That being said Janish/Renteria are killing them at SS. Between the two of them for the year they've netted -.1 WAR. Janish is OPSing 518. Hardy has 15 more XBH than Janish and only has 7 less PAs. Hardy has extra value to them not only because he's giving above average production, but because he takes them from a negative position and turns it well into a positive.

At this point, looking a bit more at Cinci as a trade partner they probably are only going to only do this deal if Hardy is involved. And that seems to be the sticking point for most posters so far.

Cinci does like the defense Janish is giving them and they already have a very good offense, so Hardy may not be as big a need as we think.

That being said, they can keep Janish as a UTI guy and if they don't re-sign Hardy, Janish can take over next year. End of the day, Cinci is better with hardy than without...Doesn't mean they will trade what it takes to get him though.

[flashjordnk]

Cinci does like the defense Janish is giving them and they already have a very good offense, so Hardy may not be as big a need as we think.

That being said, they can keep Janish as a UTI guy and if they don't re-sign Hardy, Janish can take over next year. End of the day, Cinci is better with hardy than without...Doesn't mean they will trade what it takes to get him though.

To add to that Rolen has just kind of been miserable this year. If they can get + defense at SS and 3b (I have no idea if Janish can do this, he was there for 6 games in 2007 and didn't commit an error) and Hardy's bat is an upgrade to Rolen's they might be more interested.

I also think bettering their defense and offense a bit, if they even think Guthrie is a slight upgrade they could be finding ways to upgrade all three phases of their team. I think a deal like this will boil down to other SP options on the market come deadline time. Who else is out there that's going to give them more than Guthrie? Unfortunately, the O's don't really have any other sweeteners to help right now.

[Sports Guy]

To add to that Rolen has just kind of been miserable this year. If they can get + defense at SS and 3b (I have no idea if Janish can do this, he was there for 6 games in 2007 and didn't commit an error) and Hardy's bat is an upgrade to Rolen's they might be more interested.

I also think bettering their defense and offense a bit, if they even think Guthrie is a slight upgrade they could be finding ways to upgrade all three phases of their team. I think a deal like this will boil down to other SP options on the market come deadline time. Who else is out there that's going to give them more than Guthrie? Unfortunately, the O's don't really have any other sweeteners to help right now.

Anabel Sanchez is a hot name out there right now..potentially.

Another guy whose name has been floated around is Jared Weaver.

[Sports Guy]

If you could make this deal with Cinci, trade Jones, Koji and JJ and get rid of some of the vets with higher salaries, I think this team could QUICKLY be in good shape and may not see a huge dropoff, if any, this season because you are acquiring very good young talent that is either ML ready or in the majors.

[flashjordnk]

Anabel Sanchez is a hot name out there right now..potentially.

Another guy whose name has been floated around is Jared Weaver.

Yeah maybe Sanchez. I don't think Cinci has the buying power to get Weaver. Seems to me like they'd have to get blown away the way he's pitching.

Are there other teams in the mix for SP? I guess the Cards, Arizona or Texas, the Yanks would probably go in on Weaver if he were out there and could dangle Montero. All in all, it doesn't seem like the buyers are there for quality SP this off season. Though a lot of races are really close and one guy going could really set off a fire storm. Would you think could help drum up some interest from Cinci through competition or addition?

[Sports Guy]

Yeah maybe Sanchez. I don't think Cinci has the buying power to get Weaver. Seems to me like they'd have to get blown away the way he's pitching.

Are there other teams in the mix for SP? I guess the Cards, Arizona or Texas, the Yanks would probably go in on Weaver if he were out there and could dangle Montero. All in all, it doesn't seem like the buyers are there for quality SP this off season. Though a lot of races are really close and one guy going could really set off a fire storm. Would you think could help drum up some interest from Cinci through competition or addition?

There are always buyers for starting pitching.

[flashjordnk]

There are always buyers for starting pitching.

Well it's not just about buyers. It's about buyers that will give us good value for Guthrie. Or buyers of someone not Guthrie, that will force Cinci to re-evaluate their need for Guthrie in the short term potentially.

Also if Sanchez is on the block, I can't see any reason Cinci would want him less than Guthrie.

[El Gordo]

Which one of Cincy's SP's could put up a sub 4 ERA in the AL East?

[mweb]

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2010/01/10/yonder-alonso-report

That's from 1.5 years ago. John is a solid evaluator. I agree with much of what he says.

Those tools translate roughly to a .290/.360/.470 hitter. Slow, with average defensive actions at first. Pretty close to what you saw from him last year in the International League.

Interesting considering the packages some people were willing to give up to get this guy over the summer.

Couple questions and a point:

SG said that the line you mention would look good, especially given today's hitting environment. That led me to wonder if the change in the hitting environment is being considered in that slash line?

Would it be fair to say that his future hit and power grades look a bit aggressive in hindsight due to a lack of great progression since then? I know he's having a solid year, but he's repeating AAA and is 24 and I don't know that his stats would warrant much of a bump in his current grades, but obviously I'm no scout.

Now for the point, which is similar to something you said in another post...Butler is only 1 year older than Alonso and his 2009-2011 MLB numbers are as good as Alonso's career or last 3 year minor league numbers without even adjusting for league.

[flashjordnk]

Which one of Cincy's SP's could put up a sub 4 ERA in the AL East?

It's easy for us to know this, but how well does that translate over to other GM's? It helps the argument but I'm not this tips the scales for a GM.

[JTrea81]

Anabel Sanchez is a hot name out there right now..potentially.

Another guy whose name has been floated around is Jared Weaver.

Bedard might be another possiblity if he comes back in time...

[LookinUp]

So, about 50% of voters on the OH would trade our most reliable pitcher and SS for:

1. A 1B with limited power, limited glove, but some real offensive upside.

2. A SS with limited but ok bat and nice glove.

3. A # 4/5 starter.

4. A good, young cheap bullpen arm.

Just because I'd like to have all 4 of those guys on the team doesn't mean I want to trade two of my most valuable commodities just to get them. Couldn't we just sign a few Scutaro types and get almost the same thing in the offseason and still having both of Guthrie and Hardy (or draft picks) on the team next year?

I'm for trading both, but not for replacement level players. If we're packaging together, give me a stud in return or go away.

[RVAbird]

Couple questions and a point:

SG said that the line you mention would look good, especially given today's hitting environment. That led me to wonder if the change in the hitting environment is being considered in that slash line?

Would it be fair to say that his future hit and power grades look a bit aggressive in hindsight due to a lack of great progression since then? I know he's having a solid year, but he's repeating AAA and is 24 and I don't know that his stats would warrant much of a bump in his current grades, but obviously I'm no scout.

Now for the point, which is similar to something you said in another post...Butler is only 1 year older than Alonso and his 2009-2011 MLB numbers are as good as Alonso's career or last 3 year minor league numbers without even adjusting for league.

Great questions. No I didn't adjust for current offensive environment, because that's pretty hard to predict or account for from year to year. Those are fairly neutral line projections that I would have slapped on him two years ago as well.

And yes, like I said, Butler developed earlier, and has pretty much topped out in performance. You like to give the edge to guys who reach success at higher levels at earlier ages, and the different development patterns keep me from using Butler as a comp, but Alonso has been a consistent performer. He's given you about the same production at every level. He may hit a wall at the ML level, but I feel he's a pretty safe bet for league average offense or better.

[El Gordo]

So, about 50% of voters on the OH would trade our most reliable pitcher and SS for:

1. A 1B with limited power, limited glove, but some real offensive upside.

2. A SS with limited but ok bat and nice glove.

3. A # 4/5 starter.

4. A good, young cheap bullpen arm.

Just because I'd like to have all 4 of those guys on the team doesn't mean I want to trade two of my most valuable commodities just to get them. Couldn't we just sign a few Scutaro types and get almost the same thing in the offseason and still having both of Guthrie and Hardy (or draft picks) on the team next year?

I'm for trading both, but not for replacement level players. If we're packaging together, give me a stud in return or go away.

You wouldn't trade Hardy if you can extend him. But if he can't be, then why not trade him at the deadline? You can sign him as FA in the fall. Guthrie 's value to us is limited to thenext year at more money from arbitration. I you can get a long term solution, and some estra piecs for him, why not take the hit for the remainder of the season. This of course contingent on where the team ia at the deadline. If by some miracle the SP starts to gel, like last fall, the offense produces like they have in June, and the team goes on a run for 20 games or so then maybe you keep them.