So, I guess Buck's honeymoon is over?

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, the Orioles did choose to showcase it in a commercial too. So it's not just us fans putting weight on it.

Yes, that certainly didn't help.

[flashjordnk]

Wow...left work yesterday, didn't get to the board and this conversation evolved a lot since I was gone, lol.

A few things...one I'm with SG on this one. It's not about the results. It's easy to overlook individual games and situations and say on the whole Buck is the same. But I think these isolated instances make a difference. NMS brings up a great argument about the 'everyone is replaceable' poster. No one really responded to that.

I don't remember the exact games, but early in the year it felt like Buck over taxed our bullpen by one and doing a bunch of guys. There have been games where I'd like to see Buck leave in the starter and take some more punishment to save the bullpen for future games. I think Andino was unduly rewarded with playing time for poor play. I think the same thing of Blake Davis (I'm still baffled by this one). And if Davis was going to get the shot...what's the deal with Adams up here at all.

I never liked Accardo and I do think that many guys could have been more effective. Frobby says I'm in a world of fantasy if I think that there are MiLB options that are better. He ignored the fact that I mentioned that Accardo gave up runs in 14 of 25 appearances (we don't like Gregg and he's only given up 8 in 32 appearances), the fact that he never had more K's than BB's. What about Hendrickson? Why the heck is he on the Norfolk tides roster? Hendrickson/Patton/Gabino/Worrell all have sub 4.00 ERA's in Norfolk. I'm not saying it will translate, but it has to be better than giving up runs 56% of appearances. To say we don't have better than Accardo is just something we'll have to disagree on.

I felt Berken was underused before he clearly got hurt. Buck has his hesitation about using him, but we need to get him in there and see what he can do. Can he be effective late relief? Instead of burying an innings load onto JJ, why not see what Berken can do? He's got an 8-2 K/BB ratio and a 2.16 ERA. Not that we're winning a lot right now, but we better save JJ's arm before it falls off.

This still doesn't even touch on the fact that apparently Reimold did something to tick off Buck Showalter's mother. And he won't let him off the pine. If we can leave Scott in to face lefties, I think Reimold can use some ABs against righties.

Roster Management and in game decisions feel iffy. Maybe that's because of losses. Or maybe that's because the in game and roster management has actually not been that great. I'm not going to go back through the game threads to find instances because I don't have time.

At the end of the day, the lack of the O's looking prepared and acting motivated during games is something you can see on the field. You might want to deny it, but the game a couple days ago just showed a little leaguer mental effort from the O's. If we brought Buck in because he's a preparation fiend and cares about playing smart, the question is why isn't translating to these players? Even when we lost games at the end of last year...it didn't quite feel like the losses do now. And maybe I can't explain it and it makes me an irrational fan. But I'm willing to own that if that's the case.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I agree with this 100%. His words haven't matched his actual practice on this issue, but they didn't last year either. People just liked the choice last year so they suddenly acted like he was being unconventional. He wasn't. I don't blame him. Humans do tend to like patterns and they tend to perform better when they are allowed to stay within those patterns. Change upsets most people, few embrace it. Uncertainty is even worse for most people. I'll bet JJ, Koji, and Gregg love knowing their role day-to-day even if they initially preferred a different role. Juggling them depending on the game sounds great in theory, but I bet it would work less great in practice simply due to the basic human preference for patterns and being comfortable.

I know I'm slightly threadjacking into theory here, but isn't the "role" of any relief pitcher to come in on short notice to get batters out, whether it is the fourth or the ninth inning?

[BaltimoreTerp]

Yes, that certainly didn't help.

That's my issue. He makes the comment, and the team decides to use it as a way of promoting the team to the fans. Only he doesn't actually "practice what he preaches".

It makes him (and the Orioles) look like a politician trolling for votes from as many potential voters as possible instead of a manager expressing his management style to help convince fans things are different.

[DrungoHazewood]

I know I'm slightly threadjacking into theory here, but isn't the "role" of any relief pitcher to come in on short notice to get batters out, whether it is the fourth or the ninth inning?

Should that be the reliever's role if that's not the way to maximize his effectiveness? The baseball community seems to have a very strong belief that pitchers pitch better when they can prepare themselves in a consistent manner, for example knowing they need to warm up around 9:00 most nights because that's when the 9th inning is going to start.

I think we'd have a hard time disproving that idea. It's not like we have a period of baseball history where a half of all the good teams used Goose Gossage-style firemen, and half used one-inning 9th inning closers, and one type was clearly more successful. In fact, most of the mass reliever usage pattern changes happened because someone tried a new way and it worked spectacularly well (Joe Page, Eck, Sutter).

[BaltimoreTerp]

Should that be the reliever's role if that's not the way to maximize his effectiveness? The baseball community seems to have a very strong belief that pitchers pitch better when they can prepare themselves in a consistent manner, for example knowing they need to warm up around 9:00 most nights because that's when the 9th inning is going to start.

I think we'd have a hard time disproving that idea. It's not like we have a period of baseball history where a half of all the good teams used Goose Gossage-style firemen, and half used one-inning 9th inning closers, and one type was clearly more successful. In fact, most of the mass reliever usage pattern changes happened because someone tried a new way and it worked spectacularly well (Joe Page, Eck, Sutter).

The baseball community has had a lot of "very strong beliefs" for a long time that have been shown as incorrect. Why should we think this would be any different?

[DrungoHazewood]

The baseball community has had a lot of "very strong beliefs" for a long time that have been shown as incorrect. Why should we think this would be any different?

Because the other side's idea is based on little more than the sabermetric community's very strong belief that maximizing leverage index is more important than a pitcher's preparation. They have the leverage index data down pat. The other half is just guessing and contradicting what most pitchers will tell you.

If you've got a way to prove to me that maximizing leverage index is more important than structured preparation, I'm all ears.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Because the other side's idea is based on little more than the sabermetric community's very strong belief that maximizing leverage index is more important than a pitcher's preparation. They have the leverage index data down pat. The other half is just guessing and contradicting what most pitchers will tell you.

If you've got a way to prove to me that maximizing leverage index is more important than structured preparation, I'm all ears.

Game action

[Frobby]

That's my issue. He makes the comment, and the team decides to use it as a way of promoting the team to the fans. Only he doesn't actually "practice what he preaches".

It makes him (and the Orioles) look like a politician trolling for votes from as many potential voters as possible instead of a manager expressing his management style to help convince fans things are different.

Meh. Any fan who can't understand an advertisement for what it is will be disappointed, I guess. Were you surprised when you tried Just for Men and a beautiful woman didn't invite you over for pancakes?

Meanwhile, I think it is important to understand that the Orioles have lost very few games in which they led at any point.

Leading at the top of the 6th: 23-2

Leading at the top of the 7th: 25-4

Leading at the top of the 8th: 27-3

Leading at the top of the 9th: 30-3

On a macro level, it is hard for me to see that Buck has done a bad job managing his bullpen. Here are all the games the bullpen lost in which we had the lead at any time after the 5th inning:

April 14 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead vs. NYY

May 3 - Accardo blows a 1-run lead in the 6th inning vs. KC

May 16 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead vs BOS

June 11 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead to TAM (JJ also blew a 7th inning lead in this game, so we had 2 blown saves in the same game)

That's it, four games in nearly half a season that we were leading at any time after the 5th inning and the bullpen lost the game.

[Stotle]

Meh. Any fan who can't understand an advertisement for what it is will be disappointed, I guess. Were you surprised when you tried Just for Men and a beautiful woman didn't invite you over for pancakes?

Meanwhile, I think it is important to understand that the Orioles have lost very few games in which they led at any point.

Leading at the top of the 6th: 23-2

Leading at the top of the 7th: 25-4

Leading at the top of the 8th: 27-3

Leading at the top of the 9th: 30-3

On a macro level, it is hard for me to see that Buck has done a bad job managing his bullpen. Here are all the games the bullpen lost in which we had the lead at any time after the 5th inning:

April 14 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead vs. NYY

May 3 - Accardo blows a 1-run lead in the 6th inning vs. KC

May 16 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead vs BOS

June 11 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead to TAM (JJ also blew a 7th inning lead in this game, so we had 2 blown saves in the same game)

That's it, four games in nearly half a season that we were leading at any time after the 5th inning and the bullpen lost the game.

I think all pretty compelling points.

[Frobby]

I think all pretty compelling points.

Thanks, and I forgot one: our bullpen has an 11-10 record. Yep, as mediocre as the group is, and with only three guys who are worth a damn, Buck has somehow nursed that group into a winning record.

And of course, that just reinforces my opening point about the starting pitching, which is 24-32 and forces the bullpen to pitch 3.2 innings per game.

[CA-ORIOLE]

They have the leverage index data down pat.

Actually I'm not sure they do. Assigning more weight/value to the 9th innning than the sixth may make sense from a macro sense, but assigning extra value to an individual pitcher makes little sense from a statistical view, at least in my opinion. This is why closers are overrated. Did you see my previous post about this (#104)?

[Flosman]

The baseball community has had a lot of "very strong beliefs" for a long time that have been shown as incorrect. Why should we think this would be any different?

I think this is a great point. But, baseball is a very closed community and people look at ground breakers with an eye to proving they are wrong. If buck went to playing match ups and the hot hand every failure would be amplified. Occasionally there are guys like Earl that could give a crap what the herd thinks and they become HOF managers and rub a lot of people the wrong way. If they have a period where things go wrong they end up where Leo is. We will watch Ryan's efforts over the next few years and see how it turns out.

Not to mention a guys like Gregg becomes invested in this sort of system. He is not a better pitcher than koji but will get paid a premium for his role.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think this is a great point. But, baseball is a very closed community and people look at ground breakers with an eye to proving they are wrong. If buck went to playing match ups and the hot hand every failure would be amplified. Occasionally there are guys like Earl that could give a crap what the herd thinks and they become HOF managers and rub a lot of people the wrong way. If they have a period where things go wrong they end up where Leo is. We will watch Ryan's efforts over the next few years and see how it turns out.

Not to mention a guys like Gregg becomes invested in this sort of system. He is not a better pitcher than koji but will get paid a premium for his role.

Failures are amplified, but if you have more success wouldn't that still drown out the critics?

[ccbird]

Meh. Any fan who can't understand an advertisement for what it is will be disappointed, I guess. Were you surprised when you tried Just for Men and a beautiful woman didn't invite you over for pancakes?

Meanwhile, I think it is important to understand that the Orioles have lost very few games in which they led at any point.

Leading at the top of the 6th: 23-2

Leading at the top of the 7th: 25-4

Leading at the top of the 8th: 27-3

Leading at the top of the 9th: 30-3

On a macro level, it is hard for me to see that Buck has done a bad job managing his bullpen. Here are all the games the bullpen lost in which we had the lead at any time after the 5th inning:

April 14 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead vs. NYY

May 3 - Accardo blows a 1-run lead in the 6th inning vs. KC

May 16 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead vs BOS

June 11 - Gregg blows a 9th inning lead to TAM (JJ also blew a 7th inning lead in this game, so we had 2 blown saves in the same game)

That's it, four games in nearly half a season that we were leading at any time after the 5th inning and the bullpen lost the game.

Good stuff. It's felt like we've done a pretty good job of holding leads this year. Kudos for looking up the numbers. I think Buck has done a better job of managing the BP than anybody we've had in awhile.