We are all pissed and rightfully so...What can the Orioles do this offseason to change that?

[NewMarketSean]

At this point, the Orioles can't win if they don't go into the FA market. There's a good chance they'll fail if they do go into the FA market but there's a chance they hit on someone like Darvish. Or they could sit back, trade everything of value and try to get as many good young players coming up at the same time. That isn't going to happen. The O's could have a decent starting nine. The pitching is a huge question mark. You could take a chance on someone like Darvish and fail. The Orioles have been risked almost 20M on Lee, Guerrero, and Gregg last year. The upside of those three was questionable, Two were aging and everyone knew the third was a mistake. Take a chance on a foreign star like Darvish who is at a prime age. I'll take the 30-40% chance that Darvish lives up to the contract. As SG said, even if he doesn't, I wouldn't expect him to be a complete bust.

The O's are better off trying to find value guys or reclamation projects. Overpaying for FA's isn't going to turn a 100 loss team into a 100 win team.

Sign or trade for guys who are #3 or #4 pitchers and hope that Matusz or Britton can become your #1 or #2.

As much as people want to see the Orioles make all these splashy moves, it's not the right way to go about winning again.

[SrMeowMeow]

I mean in 2012, and probably 2013 as well. That's being conservative. The Orioles aren't close to having the powerhouse farm system that is needed to win without FA.

But...FA isn't a winning proposition. Even if you think we're an 81 win right now, you'd have to add like 90M in payroll to buy 24 wins to bring us into real contender territory. That's clearly implausible.

I mean, seriously. We can't win in 2012 at all without a lot of luck and a lot of internal improvement. Babe Ruth instead of Felix Pie would have gotten us to like 85 wins this season.

[JTrea81]

As much as people want to see the Orioles make all these splashy moves, it's not the right way to go about winning again.

Who cares about the "right way?" Don't you want to see them win? After 14 years of losing, any way they can win is the "right way" IMO.

Let's just get off this strictly building through the farm kick and accept any way that the Orioles are committed to winning is a good thing.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who cares about the "right way?" Don't you want to see them win? After 14 years of losing, any way they can win is the "right way" IMO.

Let's just get off this strictly building through the farm kick and accept any way that the Orioles are committed to winning is a good thing.

They can't win in the near term. It's that simple.

[srock]

What if he's Dwight Gooden, who was every bit the pitcher Darvish was in his early 20s? From 25-29 Gooden had an ERA+ of 100, basically just an innings-eater. Is that worth $120M? Or if he's Fernando Valenzuela, another fabulous young ace with a ton of innings on his arm? From 25-29 his ERA+ was 95. What if he's Bret Saberhagen? Or Larry Dierker? They were all as good as Darvish, give or take.

He might bust entirely, he might be a Hall of Famer. Most likely he will fall somewhere in the middle, which isn't necessary a bad thing. At some point, some amount of risk has to be taken.

And it's not like investments in the minor league system are paying off, so the Orioles are left having to overspend to make up for the lack of undervalued (under team control) players.

The only logical thing to do is determine how much cash the team is willing to risk, determine what kind of contract would be acceptable, and make a bid accordingly. Hopefully the Orioles risk assessment apparatus is better then recent history indicates.

[Bradysburns]

What would make you happy?

PA is a joke, the GM search is an embarrassment but the offseason has just started.

And while this will always be an issue no matter what they do, they could still make us happy, I would think, if they wanted to.

So, what would it take?

Hire John Hart as President of Baseball Ops, and Thad Levine as GM. Hire a whole new player development and scouting staff. Acquire two solid starters, a third baseman and a backup catcher... and anyone else you can land (left field? second base?)... Sign at least one elite international free agent. Then I would be very pleased.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I was going to criticize your post until I read its last line. Because that's basically it...even if you choose to perpetually see the glass as half-full, to think that bad luck has had as large a hand in the Orioles' fortunes as bad management, at some point you have to look honestly at the results that've been recorded over the last decade and a half.

No matter what the cause, the O's have been terrible for a very long time. IMO, the common denominator has been and is PA, and enough stories have come out over the years to convince me that his ownership is a plague on the franchise. There's room for disagreement, but the O's really do need to be perfect over a measurable period of time before they'll gain back the trust of the fanbase at large.

Yeah, I agree. There's the old saying, "luck is the residue of design." Well, I think that saying applies to bad luck, too.

[srock]

They can't win in the near term. It's that simple.

I agree.

But Darvish will be 25 next season. So he is is useful past the near term.

[SrMeowMeow]

Who cares about the "right way?" Don't you want to see them win? After 14 years of losing, any way they can win is the "right way" IMO.

Let's just get off this strictly building through the farm kick and accept any way that the Orioles are committed to winning is a good thing.

Bleep bloop blorp.

If the O's commit to winning through FA, they won't win. So it's not a good thing.

[ShaneDawg85]

The odds are greatly in your favor for being right. However, put your orange colored glasses on for a minute or two. If Darvish is a #1 type starter, Matusz reverts back to 2010, Guthrie remains the same, and Britton improves over last year, don't the Orioles at least become interesting?

The Orioles have been playing the "if" game for far too long.

[SrMeowMeow]

Is there another kind of game? The IF game is the only one there is. The question is do you want to play IF with Alfredo Simon and the likes or Yu Darvish.

Let's not play the game where we make decisions we know are sub-optimal just so that if everything breaks right, "the Orioles at least become interesting". That game doesn't sound fun.

[wickedwitch]

I agree with those who want to seriously go after Darvish. We're going to be overpaying any FA we get, so it might as well be the good ones. And if he won't sign, then at least the Yankees/Red Sox don't have him this year.

[DrungoHazewood]

The odds are greatly in your favor for being right. However, put your orange colored glasses on for a minute or two. If Darvish is a #1 type starter, Matusz reverts back to 2010, Guthrie remains the same, and Britton improves over last year, don't the Orioles at least become interesting?

Sure, that would be interesting. But the cupboard would still be empty between AAA and Machado. The revenues would still be poor, and the payroll capped below $100M. Angelos would still have his cronies in place, and refuse to relinquish control to anyone with half a chance to build a competitive organization. Guthrie then becomes a free agent, Britton still hasn't reached the injury nexus, and if we're lucky we're the recent Blue Jays.

So, whatta we have, about a 1-in-10 chance of becoming the recent Blue Jays, as you're still relying on Matusz going from a 11.00 ERA to a 3.75? Yippie.

[DrungoHazewood]

Let's not play the game where we make decisions we know are sub-optimal just so that if everything breaks right, "the Orioles at least become interesting". That game doesn't sound fun.

We know the results of that game. It's the same one we've been playing for 15 years. Everything never breaks right. Especially when you're the Orioles and Angelos won't allow an organization that has good luck as a residue of design.

[SrMeowMeow]

We don't know that signing Darvish is "sub-optimal", whatever that really means. The alternative is to make no moves at all or minor moves that are potentially sub optimal as well. Since signing Darvish isn't your idea of fun, what kind of offseason is going to give you a belly laugh? Those of you who are resigned to completely giving up, are no fun!

If that's what you got out of this discussion, then let's just agree to disagree.