Per Roch: Orioles are not bidding on Darvish.

[Frobby]

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/12/orioles-passing-on-darvish-probably-introducing-wada-thursday.html

[Fan4Life]

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/12/orioles-passing-on-darvish-probably-introducing-wada-thursday.html

I need an update on the Chen negotiations... Wada is in the bag.

[scOtt]

This doesn't surprise me in the least. I've been saying for weeks PA would reject the posting fee. Said it again last night in the poll thread.

That being said, I don't think this means doom and gloom. I think DD goes hard after Cespedes and Chen. Three of his goals, OF, SP and international.

[srock]

I agree with the posturing possibility. In fact, we may never know for sure if the Orioles bid or not, we do not yet know how tight a info ship Duquette runs.

And if Duquette knows via back channel communications with teams/Yu's agent that the Orioles won't be able to sign him, they there is no reason to waste time and resources pursuing him.

That said, I would love to have Darvish with a bird on his hat.

[bobmc]

This doesn't surprise me in the least. I've been saying for weeks PA would reject the posting fee. Said it again last night in the poll thread.

That being said, I don't think this means doom and gloom. I think DD goes hard after Cespedes and Chen. Three of his goals, OF, SP and international.

Doesn't surprise me either but I was hoping that with the Wada signing and the Koji good vibes, somehow they would go in on him. I do hope the Yanks or Sox get him so we can face him and see all the hype in action, however. Fukodome? Yu?

[bnw7870]

Yeah he will have a Blue Jays hat on.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I agree with the posturing possibility. In fact, we may never know for sure if the Orioles bid or not, we do not yet know how tight a info ship Duquette runs.

And if Duquette knows via back channel communications with teams/Yu's agent that the Orioles won't be able to sign him, they there is no reason to waste time and resources pursuing him.

That said, I would love to have Darvish with a bird on his hat.

This the only reasonable explanation why the Orioles' wouldn't submit a bid, and I would be pretty upset if that was the case because it's a very weak argument (from the Orioles' perspective, not srock's). I can't imagine that submitting a bid is all that time-intensive, so DD would have to be 100% convinced that it's a total waste of time to not even bother. Also, it would be highly uncharacteristic for a team to sink resources into scouting a player and then give up on pursuing them without making even a minimal effort. Aren't the Orioles the champions of the token offer?

The fact that every team that I can find has used the same method of posturing (can anybody find evidence of a team official for ANY team saying they will bid?) means that we shouldn't take this report seriously. I doubt very much that the Orioles will win the negotiating rights, but I doubt even more that they aren't even trying. They won't win because their bid is too cheap, not because it doesn't exist.

Nearly every post in this thread is using this report as a means to confirm their preconceived notions of Orioles futility. While this attitude is justifiably founded on a decade and a half of misery, I think this is a rare occasion in which there are more objective reasons to not believe this report than to accept it as fact.

[eb45]

I don't get why you wouldn't submit a bid of something like $20M. Just doesn't make sense to me. Bid what you're willing to pay, and if you don't win with that, then you'll feel okay. And if you do win, then nobody else can get the player.

[crissfan172]

I'm sure Roch's right, but doesn't it seem weird that he's the only one reporting this? Usually I have about 10 tweets telling me this, but only one so far.

[square634]

I agree with the posturing possibility. In fact, we may never know for sure if the Orioles bid or not, we do not yet know how tight a info ship Duquette runs.

And if Duquette knows via back channel communications with teams/Yu's agent that the Orioles won't be able to sign him, they there is no reason to waste time and resources pursuing him.

That said, I would love to have Darvish with a bird on his hat.

I don't buy that. If the O's heard through back channels that Yu would refuse to sign with the Orioles, then if I were Duquette, I'd bid even higher so that he couldn't go to another team. Why not just bid $70 million, and let him go back?

[lint06]

I don't buy that. If the O's heard through back channels that Yu would refuse to sign with the Orioles, then if I were Duquette, I'd bid even higher so that he couldn't go to another team. Why not just bid $70 million, and let him go back?

I kind of agree with this sentiment. But then again, if he was pressured by his old team to take the deal and he caves, then the Orioles are screwed....unless they lowball him in negotiations.

[square634]

I kind of agree with this sentiment. But then again, if he was pressured by his old team to take the deal and he caves, then the Orioles are screwed....unless they lowball him in negotiations.

Yeah, that's what I mean. Why not bid something higher than you are really comfortable with, like $65 million, and offer him an insulting low-ball deal, like 8 years @ $4.25 million per. He would definitely go back to Japan, and if for some reason he calls the bluff (which he has basically zero incentive to do), you have him at effectively 8 years/$99 million, which isn't so bad.

[erb8472]

I kind of agree with this sentiment. But then again, if he was pressured by his old team to take the deal and he caves, then the Orioles are screwed....unless they lowball him in negotiations.

If they bid just to keep other teams from getting him they would be risking never signing a Japanese player again.

[NewMarketSean]

Not surprising at all, although it would be nice to see the Orioles do something bold for once.

But who am I kiddng? Tigers dont change their stripes.

[square634]

If they bid just to keep other teams from getting him they would be risking never signing a Japanese player again.

People say this, but I wonder why? From what I understand (and I've had the same debate here before), the Japanese teams are not allowed to choose which posting bid to accept. They are forced to pick the highest one. So a move like that would more likely just cause the posting system to be abolished.

Also, who's to say what a "good faith" effort really is? When the A's failed to sign Iwakuma after winning the bid, no one thought it was a big deal.