Intentional Talk (Kevin Millar) discusses Jones for Jurrjens and Prado...

[GoldGlove21]

ATL would have to think highly of Andino. I don't think Tillman/Bergie are sure enough bets to bridge the gap created by losing three potential 2012 contributors. If I were in a room advising Wren, and Baltimore wanted JJ/Delgado/Prado, I'd be asking for:

Jones/Andino/Avery

Jones/Andino/Schrader

Jones/Johnson

Jones/Guthrie (in this trade, BAL may be able to wrangle a 4th ATL player if it's a single-A type talent that ATL hasn't already invested tons into).

I would include Johnson in the deal if Atlanta added someone like Graham as a PTBNL. Guthrie warrants more than just a B- type prospect IMO. I would give up #1 and #2 as well, but would rather see Andino stay the Orioles INF Utility guy.

[El Gordo]

ATL would have to think highly of Andino. I don't think Tillman/Bergie are sure enough bets to bridge the gap created by losing three potential 2012 contributors. If I were in a room advising Wren, and Baltimore wanted JJ/Delgado/Prado, I'd be asking for:

Jones/Andino/Avery

Jones/Andino/Schrader

Jones/Johnson

Jones/Guthrie (in this trade, BAL may be able to wrangle a 4th ATL player if it's a single-A type talent that ATL hasn't already invested tons into).

Well ATL needs a backup at SS, 2B, and for Chipper if they trade Prado.But I like the idea of adding Guthrie for an extra prospect.

[brvn52]

I wonder what the Braves think of a player like Markakis. A solid OFer, from Atlanta, who was played well in the AL East.

Adding Markakis would completely solidify their outfield. By adding Markakis, I'd imagine Bourn would have to be coming back.

What about a deal like Jones, Markakis, and Andino for JJ, Prado, Teheran, Bourn?

I guess it all depends on how much they value Markakis and his contract.

[Greg Pappas]

The issue with a JJ, Prado and Beachy/Minor/etc. package is that ATL is giving up three ML players. Regardless of ceiling, there is a lot of value in probability, and each of these three are high probability contributors in some form.

The reality is that JJ is a nice piece in a trade package for Jones, but he just isn't a headliner at this point. His value is (ideally) in large part tied to his track record and the fact that you can comfortably slot him in to the middle of your rotation. That value, however, takes a big hit due to injury risk.

Prado has similar value in that you would generally be comfortable that he is a ML starter, with versatility to boot. But some injury issues last year and a down year from a production standpoint really kill his "now" value.

Beachy/Minor are mid-rotation to back-end guys. There is again good probability, but limited ceiling.

BAL shouldn't expect to get three ML players for Jones -- that is too large a chunk out of ATL's team, even with redundancies. The risk needs to be spread out some over levels. Some of the following would make sense:

1. Tehran/Salcedo

2. Vizcaino/Beachy/Salcedo

3. JJ/Minor/Salcedo

4. Delgado/Spruill/Beachy

5. JJ/Prado/Spruill

If Baltimore were to add something of value to Jones (ML-level) then you can get a slightly better package back from ATL. All of this depends on the reasonableness of both sides, and the necessity of trade. If ATL isn't pressured to make a move, and feels they can compete as is, there is no reason to make any move right now. If ATL believes WAS/FLA/PHI are a step ahead, ATL is more likely to roll the dice and move some of their younger arms.

Thinking BAL will get three "now" ML contributors/high ceiling prospects is wishful thinkings. But so is the idea that BAL is going to take cast-offs of ATL's choosing for Jones -- their top pick and a player that at least a handful of orgs view as potentially one of the better center fielders in the game.

Great post. I agree with you, as usual, but would be shocked to see the Braves offer Teheran at all, much less Teheran AND Salcedo. I'd take that deal above all others. BTW, I've always liked Spruill.

[bluedog]

Here are all the power hitting CFers in baseball that can hit for average as well:

Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Andrew McCutchen, and Adam Jones

That's 5

There were 34 starting pitchers last year that pitched 180 innings or more and had a sub 3.5 ERA.

And Jurrjens wasn't one of them.

Grady Sizemore is a power hitting CF that can hit for average. Upton is a power hitting CF that can hit for average too. John Mayberry Jr. certainly looked like a power hitting CF that could hit for average last year.

And where does it say that hitting for power and average is an absolute measure of a players value? All you've proven is that you can cherry pick stats to attempt to prove you personal opinion.

Here are all the starting CFers in baseball with an OBP below .320:

Jones, Austin Jackson, Coco Crisp, Colby Rasmus, Alex Rios.

That's 5

Here are all the starting CFers in baseball with 12 or less SBs:

Jones, Dexter Fowler, Rios, John Jay and Rasmus

That's 5

Here are all the starting CFers in baseball with less than 70 run scored:

Jones, Pagan, Crisp, Rios and Jay

That's 5...

So based on my exhaustive (cherry picked) analysis of Jones, he's apparently one of the 5 worst CFers in the majors.

And before we start throwing around terms like "Power Hitting" for Jones, can we at least wait until he has multiple seasons with 20+ HRs? He's potentially a power hitting CFer.

[GoldGlove21]

Grady Sizemore is a power hitting CF that can hit for average. Upton is a power hitting CF that can hit for average too. John Mayberry Jr. certainly looked like a power hitting CF that could hit for average last year.

And where does it say that hitting for power and average is an absolute measure of a players value? All you've proven is that you can cherry pick stats to attempt to prove you personal opinion.

Here are all the starting CFers in baseball with an OBP below .320:

Jones, Austin Jackson, Coco Crisp, Colby Rasmus, Alex Rios.

That's 5

Here are all the starting CFers in baseball with 12 or less SBs:

Jones, Dexter Fowler, Rios, John Jay and Rasmus

That's 5

Here are all the starting CFers in baseball with less than 70 run scored:

Jones, Pagan, Crisp, Rios and Jay

That's 5...

So based on my exhaustive (cherry picked) analysis of Jones, he's apparently one of the 5 worst CFers in the majors.

And before we start throwing around terms like "Power Hitting" for Jones, can we at least wait until he has multiple seasons with 20+ HRs? He's potentially a power hitting CFer.

You are right and there are a lot of ways to define value. I can give you a long line of "sure thing" starting pitching prospects that were not sure things. The facts are that the Orioles are taking a risk by trading Adam Jones and the Braves are taking a risk if they decide to give up some of the guys mentioned on this board. The Braves are concerned with Jurrjens arm and the possibility of future injury. Prado is a solid player as well, but what Prado is worth to a team like the Braves is easily defined by what the Braves are willing to give up if the Orioles left him out of the deal. If Duquette asks for JJ and Prado to be left out of the deal and the Braves balk than it tells you something IMO. JJ and Prado is not enough for Jones because of JJ. If Jurrjens is hurt than the Orioles lose this trade, period. That is why we try to get an expanded package as a form of risk mitigation. I would imagine the Orioles and Braves can meet in the middle, but if the Orioles want JJ + two young pitchers (which was reported) and the Braves counter with JJ, Prado and Salcedo than the Orioles are doing more than meeting the Braves in the middle IMO. I want JJ, a young high-end starter (the Braves could pick) and Prado or Simmons/Salcedo/Spruill/Graham.

[Frobby]

It's really sad how fans are running him out of town IMO. They won't know what they've lost until he's gone...and we have a platoon of Chavez and Miller in CF...

Hopefully I won't care by then...

It's a damn shame that people want to trade him instead of build around him.

It is, of course, ludicrous to suggest that the fans have anything to do with Jones being traded or not, much less "running him out of town." If Jones is traded, it's because Duquette thinks the players we are receiving will be more beneficial than Jones over the long term. The end. What do the fans have to do with it?

I will tell you the damn shame -- that we might have to use a valuable resource to go get a starting pitcher and a 2B, when we've spent the last 8 years with a "grow the arms" philosophy, and we are paying $10 mm/yr to a 2B. If anything runs Adam Jones out of town, it will be the fact that we have holes where we didn't expect to have them by now.

[incubus]

People have talked more about trading Jones this offseason than any other potential move we can make. And they've been giddy when doing it salivating over the "prospect of the day." That's "running him out of town" in my book.

Even Roch keeps mentioning it.

I've seen far less talk of what it would take to extend him or what moves we could make to convince Jones to stay.

People want him gone because of his defense and his attitude IMO. Wieters' defense is better at his position and his attitude is percieved to be better so he's the more popular player of the two.

And then they justify the move by saying Reimold who is older than Jones already and hasn't shown as much, will fill the void. Or better yet, Matt Angle's defense will be so great in CF, that we will be able to ignore his Fahey like tendencies at the plate.

Why aren't more people talking about trading Wieters given the propensity for catchers to break down and be bad extension candidates?

He is our best trade chip after all...

Don't worry Scott Moore will fill Jones' void.

[DrungoHazewood]

It's really sad how fans are running him out of town IMO. They won't know what they've lost until he's gone...and we have a platoon of Chavez and Miller in CF...

Hopefully I won't care by then...

It's a damn shame that people want to trade him instead of build around him.

I'm strongly advocating signing him to a 6/66.1 extension, then placing him on waivers. Since, you know, 1.9 WAR players aren't premium and the O's can't afford to spend that kind of money on non-premium talent.

[Roll Tide]

I would include Johnson in the deal if Atlanta added someone like Graham as a PTBNL. Guthrie warrants more than just a B- type prospect IMO. I would give up #1 and #2 as well, but would rather see Andino stay the Orioles INF Utility guy.

IMO Guthrie should return a 2 or 3 player return by himself. He's a solid starter that picthes 200 innings every year.

[byrdz]

It's really sad how fans are running him out of town IMO. They won't know what they've lost until he's gone...and we have a platoon of Chavez and Miller in CF...

Hopefully I won't care by then...

It's a damn shame that people want to trade him instead of build around him.

Sounds like they want to build around pitching instead.

[Babypowder]

I'm strongly advocating signing him to a 6/66.1 extension, then placing him on waivers. Since, you know, 1.9 WAR players aren't premium and the O's can't afford to spend that kind of money on non-premium talent.

This. OBP and WAR are very important, until you're talking about Adam Jones. It's almost as if there is no logic...

[Greg Pappas]

It is, of course, ludicrous to suggest that the fans have anything to do with Jones being traded or not, much less "running him out of town." If Jones is traded, it's because Duquette thinks the players we are receiving will be more beneficial than Jones over the long term. The end. What do the fans have to do with it?

I will tell you the damn shame -- that we might have to use a valuable resource to go get a starting pitcher and a 2B, when we've spent the last 8 years with a "grow the arms" philosophy, and we are paying $10 mm/yr to a 2B. If anything runs Adam Jones out of town, it will be the fact that we have holes where we didn't expect to have them by now.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Frobby again.

[crawjo]

It's really sad how fans are running him out of town IMO. They won't know what they've lost until he's gone...and we have a platoon of Chavez and Miller in CF...

Hopefully I won't care by then...

It's a damn shame that people want to trade him instead of build around him.

JTrea, I respect your opinions but you need to look at this realistically: The Orioles are not in a position to compete for a playoff spot during the next two years. Add Prince Fielder to our current team and we aren't even at 81 wins. We need better pitching, and lots of it. There's no way around this.

Jones is a good player, but he has certain limitations that will prevent him from being a great one. He is at best (if you ignore the defensive metrics) an average defensive center fielder. More importantly, he doesn't draw walks. The ceiling on his OBP is what, maybe .340 in a good year, .320-.330 otherwise?

I think he will hit with more power in the future but on a contending team, he isn't batting anywhere higher than 5th or 6th. And we only have him for two more years. I recognize that he is a good player but I also recognize that we need better pitching. If this deal brings us that (and I'll wait to see what the haul is, if the deal does take place) then I'm in favor of it.

By the way, you might be right that the next logical step is to trade Wieters. However he is further away from FA and I think that's a decision we can make another day, once we see how the rest of our young pitching develops and how we fill the remaining holes in our roster.

[Bradysburns]

I don't disagree with that.

If I'm the Orioles, I'm looking for guys that would be under team control for longer than 2 years, anyways. I was more or less addressing the guy who wanted to add Beachy into the deal which is preposterous.

Is there someone on the Orioles' side who DIDN'T want to add Beachy? I was certainly not the first to mention the threesome of Jurrjens, Prado and Beachy in a deal for Jones.

All the talk has been of Jurrjens, Prado and a pitching prospect. I'm thinking Minor and Beachy would be the two guys I would be targeting. If the Braves needed more to get that deal done, then I'd throw in Tillman or someone along those lines (even a prospect like Klein). Jones and Klein for Jurrjens, Prado and Beachy. There you go. See? Easy!

Of course, I'm just spitballin' at this point. But I think the big issue with Jair is that balky knee. Problem is, he keeps having issues with the same knee. That makes it look chronic, and his limited innings would back that up. Prado, similar issues - injury prone. Jones? He's had some issues there, but they seem to be well behind him. He's an all-star-caliber center fielder - and every day player - with enough of a power bat to change a lineup. That's somewhat rare. I would not agree with the notion that Jones for Jurrjens, Prado and a top prospect is ridiculous. I think you are just misunderstanding all the risk-management issues at hand.