Update on Jones to the Braves for Jurrjens, Prado, Plus

[24fps]

Because Atlanta likes Seth Smith and needs a backup middle infielder

So because Atlanta likes Seth Smith, the Orioles need to trade Andino and Reynolds in addition to Jones?

This is why these multi-team blockbusters get so wacky to me. The simplest route is almost always the best IMO. The Braves want Jones? Offer the O's something they consider a net gain within the context of the team's current needs and you've immediately got some traction.

It would be interesting to know what DD's priority is in this case. Personally, I hope it's primarily future building blocks.

[DrungoHazewood]

You don't make a hole in CF to fix the rotation when the rotation is easily fixable without trading Jones.

I think you may have misplaced a decimal point somewhere. The Orioles allowed 123 runs more than any other team in the division, and more than 200 runs more than the Yanks and Rays. They were 9/10ths of a run per game below average. They allowed the 8th-most runs in AL Oriole history. Nothing about this is easily fixable. Especially not by patching the rotation with a decent free agent or two.

[Bradysburns]

I know he has his warts, but "talented-yet-unproductive"? That's a bit ridiculous.

That's just ignorant of reality - shoddy. I mean, Pie was talented but unproductive. Daniel Cabrera was talented but unproductive. Jones is a legitimate all-star-caliber center fielder entering his prime! And are they saying it would be Jurrjens OR Prado? If that's the case, the Orioles should tell them to go pack sand.

[SammyBirdland]

I think you may have misplaced a decimal point somewhere. The Orioles allowed 123 runs more than any other team in the division, and more than 200 runs more than the Yanks and Rays. They were 9/10ths of a run per game below average. They allowed the 8th-most runs in AL Oriole history. Nothing about this is easily fixable. Especially not by patching the rotation with a decent free agent or two.

Don't forget to account for the 124 home runs that Fielder would hit for us.

[33rdst]

So because Atlanta likes Seth Smith, the Orioles need to trade Andino and Reynolds in addition to Jones?

This is why these multi-team blockbusters get so wacky to me. The simplest route is almost always the best IMO. The Braves want Jones? Offer the O's something they consider a net gain within the context of the team's current needs and you've immediately got some traction.

It would be interesting to know what DD's priority is in this case. Personally, I hope it's primarily future building blocks.

Duquette has stated publicly that he wants to be above .500 this year. So in any trade he'll seek to both build for the future and get help for the current roster. His asking price of the Braves was an example of that. Not only did he ask for Jurrjens and Prado for his current roster he asked for two additional prospects for the future.

[BaltimoreTerp]

It's almost as bad as Markakis' down year that was obviously because people were talking about putting him on waivers. Stupid "fans".

If the hot air of the message-board managers can bring trade talks to a boil, maybe it can also burn a hole in the pocket where Peter Angelos keeps his spendin' money.

[DrungoHazewood]

Don't forget to account for the 124 home runs that Fielder would hit for us.

Just his love of the game would take half a run off the ol' team ERA.

[JTrea81]

I think you may have misplaced a decimal point somewhere. The Orioles allowed 123 runs more than any other team in the division, and more than 200 runs more than the Yanks and Rays. They were 9/10ths of a run per game below average. They allowed the 8th-most runs in AL Oriole history. Nothing about this is easily fixable. Especially not by patching the rotation with a decent free agent or two.

And how many runs did they score? Don't forget the Orioles had a dreadful season from Brian Matusz. The odds of that happening again are slim. Kick out Matusz and put in Wada and you 've improved by 3-4 wins already taking away Matusz' sub 2.0 fWAR performance.

This rotation can be improved just by putting 2.0 fWAR pitchers in it and those guys aren't that hard to find.

Get a stellar offense and a solid but unspectacular rotation and you can be that above .500 team that Duquette wants to see without tearing everything apart.

[Capn Vivi]

I'm going to reserve judgement on a trade until after it happens but assuming Jurrjens comes back, he'll instantly become our best SP (though Britton could hopefully give him a run for his money). I doubt any kind of trade is going to happen unless we get another SP prospect as well. That seems to be the hang-up, as it should be. I would also assume that Guthrie would be shopped in such a case and that would allow us to put Jurrjens/Britton/Wada/Arrieta/*Prospect* in the rotation next year. Possibly with Tommy Hunter the placeholder at the fifth spot until the prospect is ready. Assuming we're sound defensively (which is a hell of an assumption), that rotation has the capability of being around league average with a ton of room for improvement.

I think in such a case, trading Adam Jones is the quickest and cheapest way to make this team better, even in the short term.

If you're able to acquire Abreu and Callaspo (for Guthrie) & Prado, plugging them in at DH, 3B & 2B respectively should allow the Orioles a solid lead-off option and will allow our offense to maintain it's league average output. I don't see much downside to those moves, outside of the obvious injury risk to Jurrjens and *cough*TNSTAAPP*cough*.

Pos/Name/Career OBP (2011 OBP)

DH Abreu .397 (.353)

2B Prado .341 (.302)

RF Markakis .365 (.351)

1B Reynolds .331 (.323)

SS Hardy .320 (.310)

CA Wieters .328 (.328)

3B Callaspo .337 (.366)

LF Reimold .339 (.328)

CF Chavez .313 (.323)

The Orioles had a team OBP of .313 last year. It might be possible to trade Adam Jones and improve the offense in the process.

[24fps]

Duquette has stated publicly that he wants to be above .500 this year. So in any trade he'll seek to both build for the future and get help for the current roster. His asking price of the Braves was an example of that. Not only did he ask for Jurrjens and Prado for his current roster he asked for two additional prospects for the future.

I think Duquette will ultimately be forced to jump one way or the other if he trades Jones to Atlanta. Jurrjens, Prado and two prospects of the caliber that have been discussed over the last few days is simply too much for Adam Jones and I don't think the Braves are that desperate. If the two prospects are below Teheran, Delgado, Salcedo et al., it might be doable, but that means DD has made the choice to augment the team for this year primarily. I would take the other route.

[DrungoHazewood]

And how many runs did they score? Don't forget the Orioles had a dreadful season from Brian Matusz. The odds of that happening again are slim. Kick out Matusz and put in Wada and you 've improved by 3-4 wins already taking away Matusz' sub 2.0 fWAR performance.

This rotation can be improved just by putting 2.0 fWAR pitchers in it and those guys aren't that hard to find.

Get a stellar offense and a solid but unspectacular rotation and you can be that above .500 team that Duquette wants to see without tearing everything apart.

Toss aside Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, and Simon, and give their 53 starts to your mythical 2-win pitchers. The Orioles are now a 75-win team, and have added about $20M a year in payroll. Maybe more, since even ubiquitous 2-win pitchers have choices. Add Prince Fielder at $25M+ per, and they're now a 79-win team with a $110M+ payroll. So there you go, if everything works out great the O's have maxed out the payroll and almost have a .500 team.

[DrungoHazewood]

...but assuming Jurrjens comes back, he'll instantly become our best SP (though Britton could hopefully give him a run for his money).

That's a very low bar, but it's still up in the air. All of his ERA estimators are way above his real ERA, and he'll be moving to a better hitter's park in a tougher league/division. And he's lost 3 mph off his fastball. I think he's basically a younger, softer-tossing Jeremy Guthrie.

[SammyBirdland]

Toss aside Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, and Simon, and give their 53 starts to your mythical 2-win pitchers. The Orioles are now a 75-win team, and have added about $20M a year in payroll. Maybe more, since even ubiquitous 2-win pitchers have choices. Add Prince Fielder at $25M+ per, and they're now a 79-win team with a $110M+ payroll. So there you go, if everything works out great the O's have maxed out the payroll and almost have a .500 team.

Burn.

[Capn Vivi]

That's a very low bar, but it's still up in the air. All of his ERA estimators are way above his real ERA, and he'll be moving to a better hitter's park in a tougher league/division. And he's lost 3 mph off his fastball. I think he's basically a younger, softer-tossing Jeremy Guthrie.

I don't disagree, but at the very least, PITCHf/x rates all of his pitches better than Guthrie's and despite his low K-rate he gets swinging strikes 8.2% of the time to Guthrie's 6.4% for their respective careers. Though Jurrjens only had a 1.1% advantage in 2011.

Also, for his career, Jurrjens ERA is only 0.08 points higher on the road (and he was actually much better on the road last year than at home) so I'd say that point is a little overblown.

I'd say the lost MPH on his fastball could be symptomatic of an injury but he also put up a very impressive first half last year even considering that. I'm definitely worried about his injury history though.

[GoldGlove21]

There's plenty of pitching available via trade without using Jones and there's plenty on the FA market. There is no TOR to sign, and the options will be better at the deadline or next offseason. Grab another arm to shore up the rotation and sign somebody like Moyer to a minor league deal to see if we can get some use out of that arm.

We do not have to have a stellar rotation to win games. However if we castrate the offense like we would with trading Jones and not adding another bat, then we do.

You don't make a hole in CF to fix the rotation when the rotation is easily fixable without trading Jones. You've got too many question marks elsewhere in the offense already.

As for Prado - get Fielder and you won't have to worry about production from 2B as you'll have it from the other positions, including 1B for the first time since Palmeiro, instead.

Your solutions are tied to the same angle "Spend more money". What if I told you than the Orioles could trade Jones for JJ, Delgado and Prado. After that they were going to sign Chen and be real players for Cespedes to replace Jones. Johnny Damon will be signed on a 1/$9M deal. We are at about $90M and figure that Guthrie for Floyd now makes sense. The move saves the Orioles $1.5M and we field a $88.5M team that looks like this amd it could be modified if we feel Flaherty could handle the DH role and Brian Roberts could be a healthy option. Team payroll could be right around $80M in 2012 which is right where we need to be.

JJ

Floyd

Britton

Chen

Hunter/Matusz/Delgado

Wada

Strop

Johnson

Gregg

Eveland

Arrieta

Simon

Prado (2B)

Markakis (RF)

Hardy (SS)

Reynolds (1B)

Wieters ©

Davis (3B)

Cespedes (LF)

Damon (DH)

Miller (CF)

Andino

TT

Flaherty

Chavez