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Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

Bazooka Jones

By Bazooka Jones
in Orioles Talk

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GoldGlove21 All-Star

GoldGlove21

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I'm sure the deal is going to be spun off as Guthrie equals Hammel AND we got a decent RP. I think DD backed himself into a corner with that .500 team bullcrap. Nobody believes we are even close to .500 and there is really no reason to believe it.

I think we could be "close" to .500, but what does that really mean for a team like us? It means last place and it means we are an expensive league-average, but AL East below average product. We could finish .500 this year, but one .500 season is not going to be enough to change the perception of fans and players alike. We are going to need to finish above .500 and close to third before that happens IMO. If I was a free agent I wouldn't be pumped about signing with the Orioles unless they offered a 25% (not 10%) premium. It might not be the case if I was looking at $500k or $625k, but if I had a 5/$35M deal and the Orioles offered 5/$43M deal than I would probably take the offer of the best team or the best location for my family.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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So Guthrie would be worth more with only 6 months worth of service time left as opposed to 1 year? How well would he have to perform this season for that to be the case?

I think LookinUp is right, what could you really expect in return come July that would be clearly better then what we got now? I mean, I can understand preferring prospects to what we just got, but if Guthrie is pitching to the tune of a 4.5 ERA come July, and is still owed $4.5m, aren't we in a worst bargaining position then we are now?

If you don't trade Guthrie before the season starts you might as well consign yourself to just getting draft pick compensation. If he's traded the team he goes to gets no compensation, so in late July they'd be trading for 1/3 of a season of a 2-3 win pitcher at near market price. That's little value at all, maybe a middling 10-15 kind of prospect, or a minor reclamation project.

I'm not big on this deal, it's kind of meh, but Hammel could well be as valuable as Guthrie this year, and they have him for 2013, and possibly two years of Lindstrom, too. It's another minor, incremental upgrade.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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So Guthrie would be worth more with only 6 months worth of service time left as opposed to 1 year? How well would he have to perform this season for that to be the case?

I think LookinUp is right, what could you really expect in return come July that would be clearly better then what we got now? I mean, I can understand preferring prospects to what we just got, but if Guthrie is pitching to the tune of a 4.5 ERA come July, and is still owed $4.5m, aren't we in a worst bargaining position then we are now?

Yes. Look at the players traded over time around the trading deadline. Teams traditionally overpay for guys at the trading deadline but not in February. Like I said all along, this reeks of the Orioles being upset with Guthrie and taking the best offer. There is a little upside with Hammels I guess, but his pitch values suggest he will struggle in the AL East. Guthrie has proven he can pitch effectively in the toughest Division in baseball. His numbers would look much better in any other situation. Guthrie may not be a true TOR, but he's a solid middle of the rotation pitcher who has always outpitched his peripherals.

For the limited upside, I just think this was a trade about trying tog get rid of someone rather than improving the team long term, which is what every trade involving the Orioles major leaguers should focus on.

If all Guthrie gets you is Hammels and Lindstrom, I think DD should have held on to him and seen what he would have gotten at the All-star break.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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Yes. Look at the players traded over time around the trading deadline. Teams traditionally overpay for guys at the trading deadline but not in February.

As Drungo mentioned, the fact that they don't get draft pick compensation under the new CBA probably factors in a bit.

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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Well, is he wrong? This has been an odd offseason.

If his perspective stems from the way the team has been run for the last decade or so, I suppose he has a point. IMO Duquette is already doing things differently enough to where a little more effort to understand on Heyman's part is justified. Unless he just doesn't have time to do anything other than tweet these days. In that case he should leave opinion to those with a little more time on their hands.

Here's a suggestion Jon - put on your investigative hat and find out why Duquette is acting like the budget ceiling is so hard and low that he's already two inches shorter since Thanksgiving.

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Slappy Major Leaguer

Slappy

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JonHeymanCBSJon Heyman

i am finding some of #orioles moves this winter confounding, perplexing and just downright weird

Well, nobody understood Beane's moves back in the early 2000's either. Maybe he think's he's found an angle to exploit? In any case, I choose to be positive and see what happens.

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Orioles West Major Leaguer

Orioles West

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As a Maryland native who has spent the last couple decades out here in Denver, I don't understand this trade. Guts gives 200 competitive innings, Hammel is okay, but is an unfocused number four or five guy, and Lindstrom showed no signs of being able to close again in his time here. No future prospects, a lesser starter and a washed up back end of the bullpen guy.

I don't get it. But I do get to see Guts do well in pitcher friendly parks like LA, San Diego and San Francisco while surviving his home starts at Coors Field. Rockies got better, the O's did not with this deal. Talk radio here is not doing cartwheels, but they don't understand what the O's were thinking either.

-Don

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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If you don't trade Guthrie before the season starts you might as well consign yourself to just getting draft pick compensation. If he's traded the team he goes to gets no compensation, so in late July they'd be trading for 1/3 of a season of a 2-3 win pitcher at near market price. That's little value at all, maybe a middling 10-15 kind of prospect, or a minor reclamation project.

I'm not big on this deal, it's kind of meh, but Hammel could well be as valuable as Guthrie this year, and they have him for 2013, and possibly two years of Lindstrom, too. It's another minor, incremental upgrade.

Yeah, I enjoyed having him here, but the time for him to go was last offseason. Too bad he pitched poorly enough that we could not trade him for much after that. His price value was never lower than today.

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