Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[byrdz]

A cockamamie trade IMO.

Even the economic metrics of this move make no sense. Possibly, there will be a couple of million dollars difference, but I think Guthrie would have been more valuable to the Orioles than these two guys. And unfortunately for Jeremy, I think he was traded to the worst possible place for an extreme fly ball pitcher. He might give up 35-40 HR?s at Coor?s Field.

Well he wasn't last year according the WAR and at least one of them had a down year. So why would you all of the sudden think he would this year when he's going to the worst possible place? and don't you think they will benefit from not being at Coors?

Away numbers last season:

Hammel - 4.28 ERA

Lindstrom - 1.71 ERA

[El Gordo]

This reminds me of the trades the Pirates used to make...trading away your talent for nothing because you don't want to pay them...hence why they have a longer streak of losing seasons than we do. Pitiful organizations...and it's sad because you only have to look down the street in either city to be reminded that there are still fans there.

Except Guthrie isn't that much more talented than Hammel, and Hammel is not nothing, and the cost of the trade is pretty much even. Hammel has been more effective away than in Coors, and is more of a GB pitcher than Guthrie. Guthrie a FB pitcher with a penchant for giving up HR, is not going to find pitching half his games in Coors a piece of cake.

[The Rick]

This reminds me of the trades the Pirates used to make...trading away your talent for nothing because you don't want to pay them...hence why they have a longer streak of losing seasons than we do. Pitiful organizations...and it's sad because you only have to look down the street in either city to be reminded that there are still fans there.

Far be it from me to get in the way of your rant, but this move didn't save the O's any money at all.

Trading away your "talent" for nothing because you don't want to pay them would be more like trading Guthrie for some nice prospects, who wouldn't make much for several years. That would also be called smart, or Ray's esque.

[Stotle]

Except Guthrie isn't that much more talented than Hammel, and Hammel is not nothing, and the cost of the trade is pretty much even. Hammel has been more effective away than in Coors, and is more of a GB pitcher than Guthrie. Guthrie a FB pitcher with a penchant for giving up HR, is not going to find pitching half his games in Coors a piece of cake.

You mean, now that he's traded you don't consider him much more talented than Hammel...

[LookinUp]

You mean, now that he's traded you don't consider him much more talented than Hammel...

What do you think of these 3 players, Stotle?

[cindyluvsbrady]

I am not taking this well!:002_scry:

[Oriolidae85]

Of course teams wanted him. We all knew that. We don't know what the return could have been but we do know what Seattle got back for someone similar and that Detroit was talking to us about JG first.

As was said earlier...AM likely overvalued him.

I think AM overvalued him based on the state of the team's rotation last year. They were starting young guys that had no business being in the rotation and things kept getting worse....

Arrieta's last start was July 31, 2011 and I assume they knew they were likely to lose him for the season in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Trading Guthrie, while losing Arrieta probably would have killed team morale & the bullpen even more. Bergesen was getting shelled, Tillman was called up and shelled, even though he had not earned a call up they way he was pitching in AAA. Matusz was being Matusz.....and they still called him up two weeks later. Simon was the only SP, outside of Guthrie, at this point of the season.

Would have liked the value Guthrie could have returned then, but I was against the trade because of the situation of the rotation would have escalated.

[cindyluvsbrady]

They must cancel this trade NOW!!!

[The Rick]

I'd like to add that I'm not arguing that he's right. But if what you really want is someone to be innovative, that doesn't mean following an orthodoxy that was yesterday's innovation. It means following a path whose logic may not be readily available, at first.

Don't you think it's possible that this isn't necessarily an indication on DD's philosophy, or view on risks as you put it, but rather an indication of DD doing his best to operate within the guidelines that Buck and PA have mandated (IE: Trying to win now while also building toward the future). In other words, he could justify trading Guthrie because he was able to save a little money and also get very similar production.

Of course that is all speculative, but I think it's possible.

[The Rick]

You mean, now that he's traded you don't consider him much more talented than Hammel...

I've finally skimmed this 30+ page thread, so sorry if I've missed it, but what is your take on this?

[JTrea81]

This is a trade that could benefit the Orioles.

Guthrie was a crutch for this team no doubt. He was our ace and he never hit 3.0 fWAR (high of 2.6), a mark despite his ups and downs, Hammel has surpassed twice.

So what kind of message did it deliver to send a mediocre starter to the hill as our #1 just because he gave us innings and was consistent?

Apparently not a good one because when he did pitch well, our bats never showed up to back him. You've got to wonder how that was a coincidence for multiple years. For some reason, this team never supported Guthrie.

So I don't see this as much of a loss, and could be a gain depending on if Hammel can get back to his 09-10 form, and with Adair and Peterson I think he has that chance.

And now a starting pitcher is going to have to step up and be a true ace instead of just relying on another 2.0-2.5 fWAR season from Guthrie to carry the rotation.

[MarylandAaron]

This is a trade that could benefit the Orioles.

Guthrie was a crutch for this team no doubt. He was our ace and he never hit 3.0 fWAR (high of 2.6), a mark despite his ups and downs, Hammel has surpassed twice.

So what kind of message did it deliver to send a mediocre starter to the hill as our #1 just because he gave us innings and was consistent?

Apparently not a good one because when he did pitch well, our bats never showed up to back him. You've got to wonder how that was a coincidence for multiple years. For some reason, this team never supported Guthrie.

So I don't see this as much of a loss, and could be a gain depending on if Hammel can get back to his 09-10 form, and with Adair and Peterson I think he has that chance.

And now a starting pitcher is going to have to step up and be a true ace instead of just relying on another 2.0-2.5 fWAR season from Guthrie to carry the rotation.

It was odd how he never seemed to get supported, but wasn't part of that due to the fact that he was usually matched up against other teams' aces?

I think we've been waiting for someone to surpass Guthrie as that number one guy for years now but it just hasn't happened. Hopefully that will happen this year.

[El Gordo]

You mean, now that he's traded you don't consider him much more talented than Hammel...

I have never considered Guthrie that talented. He could never pitch well with a lead, and invariably would give up a HR to put himself behind where he was more comfortable.. He was durable and usually pitched deep into games, and that was his value. Hammel's 2009 and 2010 were better than any year Guthrie has had. And his away numbers last season weren't that bad even in a off year. People with an agenda want to characterize the trade in black and white, but the fact is it is much greyer than that. This was most likely the best offer we would get for Guthrie, and given all the possible variables most likely a lot better than one at the deadline. He should have been moved last year, or before, but thinking he'll be more valuable at the deadline is a pipe dream.

[RVAbird]

I would've preferred Alonso, but I wasn't necessarily a fan of a one to one trade there, either. I guess that Guthrie's value really isn't all that great. One would have thought better quality would have come back for a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter...guess we were wrong.

I'd prefer Alonso of course but do we really know this could have been done or is this more of "X reported on Y website that Reds are interested in .... and O's have said..."

I despise the Colorado trade but I'm not sure this angle is fair -- though perhaps I'm just not in the know.

I won't go so far as to say that an Alonso return was on the table (though, from what I heard at the time, I think it was entirely plausible at one point), but it doesn't really matter. There were many on the board who believed that Alonso was an unacceptable return for Guthrie. Many believed Guthrie could fetch more than one young, decent player whose upside was above-average regular and thought that AM was right to hold out for more. I think some underrated Alonso at the time, but I think many more overrated Guthrie's value around the league.

[Sports Guy]

I think AM overvalued him based on the state of the team's rotation last year. They were starting young guys that had no business being in the rotation and things kept getting worse....

Arrieta's last start was July 31, 2011 and I assume they knew they were likely to lose him for the season in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Trading Guthrie, while losing Arrieta probably would have killed team morale & the bullpen even more. Bergesen was getting shelled, Tillman was called up and shelled, even though he had not earned a call up they way he was pitching in AAA. Matusz was being Matusz.....and they still called him up two weeks later. Simon was the only SP, outside of Guthrie, at this point of the season.

Would have liked the value Guthrie could have returned then, but I was against the trade because of the situation of the rotation would have escalated.

Which is why it is poor to "look at the moment" when you are an awful team and worry about things like this.

You do what is best for the long term health of the franchise.

This is common sense.

Its like the people saying, if we trade Jones, who plays CF? WHO CARES! Its meaningless. The point is to do what is best LONG TERM!!!!