Dylan Bundy Thread

[oriolekid]

What are the chances he can beat out Profar for top prospect?

Bundy posts a sub 3 ERA in his remaining AA starts while posting dominating splits and Profar slipping down his BA to .270 for the year gets Bundy the consensus #1.

If Profar continues to hit around .290 than Bundy would have to be in the O's bullpen in September for him to be #1.

Not impossible, but he's facing an uphill battle.

[Ohfan67]

bd - good stuff. But your subjective analysis doesn't make comparisons about how others ranked by BP faired. For example, here's #11 - 30 from 2008:

11. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers

12. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles

13. Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies

14. Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers

15. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays

16. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox

17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves

18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays

19. Mike Moustakas, ss, Royals

20. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks

21. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds

22. Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics

23. Chase Headley, 3b, Padres

24. Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates

25. Reid Brignac, ss, Rays

26. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Athletics

27. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels

28. Chris Marrero, of/1b, Nationals

29. Angel Villalona, 3b, Giants

30. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers

There are some darn good baseball players in there. If you start comparing your subjective scores (star, solid starter, etc.) among groups ranked 1 - 10 with other groups ranked lower, then it is really hard to find strong differences among the groups until you get pretty far down the list. And there are dozens and dozens of comparisons that could be made like this to more fully test the hypothesis. That is basically what the study did. I find the comparisons pretty compelling.

[EASTERNSHOREFAN]

I doubt it. They have a plan for innings and I doubt they are going to want to put more on them through the AFL.

I understand the innings limit, I just didnt know if they'd send him out for 4 or 5 starts if they have him in their MLB plans for next year to extend him after having Sept off.

[Flash- bd]

bd - good stuff. But your subjective analysis doesn't make comparisons about how others ranked by BP faired. For example, here's #11 - 30 from 2008:

11. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers

12. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles

13. Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies

14. Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers

15. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays

16. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox

17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves

18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays

19. Mike Moustakas, ss, Royals

20. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks

21. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds

22. Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics

23. Chase Headley, 3b, Padres

24. Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates

25. Reid Brignac, ss, Rays

26. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Athletics

27. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels

28. Chris Marrero, of/1b, Nationals

29. Angel Villalona, 3b, Giants

30. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers

There are some darn good baseball players in there. If you start comparing your subjective scores (star, solid starter, etc.) among groups ranked 1 - 10 with other groups ranked lower, then it is really hard to find strong differences among the groups until you get pretty far down the list. And there are dozens and dozens of comparisons that could be made like this to more fully test the hypothesis. That is basically what the study did. I find the comparisons pretty compelling.

Yeah, absolutely; I wasn't trying to refute the study at all, and needless to say I find it quite compelling myself. That said, if you read my post, there are definitely strong differences as you go down the list-- top 20 turns out to be an important drop-off point.

No doubt there are some great players after the top 10, but that wasn't my point so much as it seems like the top 10s post-steroid era have a very low bust rate. In fact, I wasn't even trying to make an assertion about the top 10 specifically as much as really my belief that scouting is probably more accurate post steroid era, and the extended lists, as you note, further support that idea; I mean, from 11-30 there you almost have as many stars (Ellsbury, Votto, McCutchen, Gonzalez) as busts (LaRoche, Schafer, Barton, Brignac, Marrero, Villalona---sorry, not going to include Adenhart on this list, I don't consider being killed as being a bust), and plenty of pretty darn good players as well.

[baltfan]

Schoenfeld links to the curve in video posted here. Also notes how fast Bundy works.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/27575/a-look-at-dylan-bundys-curveball

[The Maestro]

No, he'll reach his innings limit for the year at Bowie......or possibly BAL.

My apologizes if I somehow missed it, but has it been determined when Bundy might get promoted to Bowie? Grew up in the area and would love to sneak a peek.

[waroriole]

My apologizes if I somehow missed it, but has it been determined when Bundy might get promoted to Bowie? Grew up in the area and would love to sneak a peek.

Hasn't been announced, but it could be as early as his next start.

[The Maestro]

Hasn't been announced, but it could be as early as his next start.

Thanks for the info. Will definitely be keeping an eye out for it.

[BlackWillow]

Schoenfeld links to the curve in video posted here. Also notes how fast Bundy works.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/27575/a-look-at-dylan-bundys-curveball

I was a few seats away from the guy taking the video listed in the link. There was a collective 'gasp' from the crowd when he threw that pitch. Nastiness.

[McLovin]

Somewhat interesting comment from Peterson in Melewski's article on Gausman:

"The changeup, especially, you'd much rather have a young pitcher come in with fastball-changeup than fastball-plus breaking ball."

I think this reinforces their methodical approach with Bundy; forcing him to work on the changeup...

[VeveJones007]

Somewhat interesting comment from Peterson in Melewski's article on Gausman:

"The changeup, especially, you'd much rather have a young pitcher come in with fastball-changeup than fastball-plus breaking ball."

I think this reinforces their methodical approach with Bundy; forcing him to work on the changeup...

I think this evidence supports it as well:

Melewski: Surprising stat: Carolina Lg lefty hitters hit .345 with .976 OPS vs. Dylan Bundy, who debuts at AA 2 night. RHB went .203/.567 vs. him.

https://twitter.com/masnSteve/status/235383439128412160

I'm no expert, but this indicates to me that he needs to continue to work on this change up. If they gave him his cutter, I'm sure that would help against lefties as well.

[VeveJones007]

Per Melewski:

Bundy is scheduled to start every 6th day at AA making his starts after tonight scheduled for 8-14, 8-20, 8-26 and 9-1. Reg season ends 9-3.

Even if he averages 6 IP/start, he'll still be short of the 120-130 innings limit (unless he gets a couple starts in the playoffs for Bowie or Norfolk. Maybe he gets those extra innings in Baltimore...

[Greg]

Steve Melewski ‏@masnSteve

Per the many, many Q's on this - Bundy will not be allowed to throw his cutter at Bowie. No cutters for the kid this year.

[Can_of_corn]

Per Melewski:

Even if he averages 6 IP/start, he'll still be short of the 120-130 innings limit (unless he gets a couple starts in the playoffs for Bowie or Norfolk. Maybe he gets those extra innings in Baltimore...

He is off the innings cap and just on a pitch count now. He has already had one start of more then 6 innings. Assuming he does well and is efficient he could average more then 6IP per start at Bowie.

[ChrisP]

Wow...still no cutter at Bowie..

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