3B Available Via Trade?

[BobDylanBundy]

I'm thinking Headley for Schoop, Tillman, and Schrader.

I'd be surprised if we were forced to give up Schoop in a deal for Headley, especially if it's a three-player package.

There is a lot to like about his away numbers and his offense is definitely trending upwards. However, this is still a 28-year old corner player with a $3.4 million salary who has never hit .300, reached 15 HR's, or stolen 20 bases.

I can't imagine the Padres will be asking for the moon in trade return.

[CA-ORIOLE]

No ...I didnt bother to look...But is the split this drastic for every player at home for San Diego?

They're usually pretty drastic. PETCO is pretty brutal for hitters. Cameron Maybin had a 618 OPS at home / 806 OPS away last year.

[Roll Tide]

I looked at their team stats on ESPN .... I tried to gauge home/away by looking...Their talent level really stinks And I thought the Orioles had problems.

I wanted to look at the career splits of someone else there.... When your best player is Yonder Alonso and he doesnt have a dinger on the year. Of note while Headley has done nothing over the past 10 games (9 straight at home) Alonso had raised his average 60 points.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I can't imagine the Padres will be asking for the moon in trade return.

They were reportedly asking a lot for him in the offseason. I'd hardly call Schoop/Tillman plus the moon. Third base is a pretty high demand position right now. Headley is also a pretty good defensive third baseman. A healthy Headley is probably a 4+ WAR player going forward imo.

However, this is still a 28-year old corner player with a $3.4 million salary who has never hit .300, reached 15 HR's, or stolen 20 bases.

Not really the stats anyone should be considering as important. Not to mention the park factor, etc.

[Roll Tide]

They're usually pretty drastic. PETCO is pretty brutal for hitters. Cameron Maybin had a 618 OPS at home / 806 OPS away last year.

Thanks for the info.

[UMDTerrapins]

They were reportedly asking a lot for him in the offseason. I'd hardly call Schoop/Tillman plus the moon.

I agree they'll want more, though it's a decent offer. The first name that came to mind that they'd be interested by is Matusz (probably because of his San Diego connection).

[clapdiddy]

I agree they'll want more, though it's a decent offer. The first name that came to mind that they'd be interested by is Matusz (probably because of his San Diego connection).

So are you thinking Schoop + Matusz for Headley? Maybe it could be a bigger deal where we get back more than just Headley.

[UMDTerrapins]

So are you thinking Schoop + Matusz for Headley? Maybe it could be a bigger deal where we get back more than just Headley.

Some variety of that, but based on those two players. It's the kind of "change of scenery" deal that could see both players flourish by putting them in the right parks.

[BobDylanBundy]

They were reportedly asking a lot for him in the offseason. I'd hardly call Schoop/Tillman plus the moon. Third base is a pretty high demand position right now. Headley is also a pretty good defensive third baseman. A healthy Headley is probably a 4+ WAR player going forward imo.

And asking a lot for him resulted in .... the Padres paying $3.4 million for Headley to be the starting 3B on their last place team.

Schoop, despite his struggles this season, is a Top 100 prospect as a 20 year old middle infielder - not to mention the 2nd best position prospect in the organization. I'm not convinced Headley instead of Schoop would even be an improvement for our long term lineup, let alone factoring in the money that Headley will make in arbitration if he performs well.

[CA-ORIOLE]

And asking a lot for him resulted in .... the Padres paying $3.4 million for Headley to be the starting 3B on their last place team.

Schoop, despite his struggles this season, is a Top 100 prospect as a 20 year old middle infielder - not to mention the 2nd best position prospect in the organization. I'm not convinced Headley instead of Schoop would even be an improvement for our long term lineup, let alone factoring in the money that Headley will make in arbitration if he performs well.

You don't get good players without giving up anything, and Headley is a good player imo. At some point the team can and should look to deal prospects for good ML players. Whether that should be now and/or if Headley is the right player is certainly debatable. It's a better strategy than Free Agency in my opinion. In my opinion, it's a good trade (all factors considered), in your opinion it apparently isn't........and that's fine.

If you're looking at stats like BA, HR's and SB's (not to mention overlooking Headleys defensive value and away splits) we're probably not going to agree much on Headley's value.

As far as the arbitration goes, he's a guy I'd be looking to lock up (and I think we could do that relatively cheaply).

[BobDylanBundy]

You don't get good players without giving up anything, and Headley is a good player imo. At some point the team can and should look to deal prospects for good ML players. Whether that should be now and/or if Headley is the right player is certainly debatable. It's a better strategy than Free Agency in my opinion. In my opinion, it's a good trade (all factors considered), in your opinion it apparently isn't........and that's fine.

This team is thin on minor league depth and the new collective bargaining agreement definitely reduces some of the competitive deterrents from signing free agents. Headley is not some once in a generation talent where it's impossible to find comparable free agent talent, and his club-controlled contract years have been burnt out. What are the strategic advantages to trading top prospects for players like Headley instead of signing them in the free agent market at minimal/zero player cost? The Orioles have money to spend, talent is where we're thin.

If you're looking at stats like BA, HR's and SB's (not to mention overlooking Headleys defensive value and away splits) we're probably not going to agree much on Headley's value.

Those are the money stats for position players, not many top players who fail to excel in at least one of those categories. The good position players can hit for contact, hit for power, and/or steal bases, and for power/speed they stay healthy enough to compile noticeable counting stats in the corresponding category.

Headley had a strong defensive season in 2010 and a poor defensive season in 2011, not sure I'm ready to attribute much to his "defensive value".

As far as the arbitration goes, he's a guy I'd be looking to lock up (and I think we could do that relatively cheaply).

Unless he gets hurt or fails in Baltimore (neither outcome very desirable), I'm not sure why he'd sign relatively cheaply - especially if his market value is established with a Schoop trade.

[CA-ORIOLE]

This team is thin on minor league depth and the new collective bargaining agreement definitely reduces some of the competitive deterrents from signing free agents. Headley is not some once in a generation talent where it's impossible to find comparable free agent talent, and his club-controlled contract years have been burnt out. What are the strategic advantages to trading top prospects for players like Headley instead of signing them in the free agent market at minimal/zero player cost? The Orioles have money to spend, talent is where we're thin..

Most quality players are locked up by their teams before they reach free agency. Headley will not be a FA until 2014. Maybe you missed what happend in the FA market last year, in past years and the crap that is projected next year. I'm not sure how much the collective bargaining changes will impact free agency, but if this past year was an indicator, Free agency will still be expensive if not more expensive than ever before, especially for quality players..

Those are the money stats for position players, not many top players who fail to excel in at least one of those categories. The good position players can hit for contact, hit for power, and/or steal bases, and for power/speed they stay healthy enough to compile noticeable counting stats in the corresponding category.

I simply disagree with this statement/analysis. It's fundamentally misguided on many levels to look primarily at Triple Crown stats and SB's. It represents the flawed logic that you would cause you to de-value players like Chase Headley and many others.

Headley had a strong defensive season in 2010 and a poor defensive season in 2011, not sure I'm ready to attribute much to his "defensive value

".

Headley was injured last year and was a plus 1 by DRS and a minus 5 by UZR. He's a plus 9.2 /150 UZR rate over his career at third base with a significant amount of chances, and even better by DRS. I'm pretty comfortable projecting Headley as a plus defensive third baseman going forward.

Unless he gets hurt or fails in Baltimore (neither outcome very desirable), I'm not sure why he'd sign relatively cheaply - especially if his market value is established with a Schoop trade

He's under team control until 2014. He could be locked up fairly cheaply and is a good bet to provide surplus value imo. I would estimate something like 4/32 would do it pretty easily.

[waroriole]

I'd like to get Headley, but I don't think I could give up Schoop. What were the Pads asking for, does anyone know?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'd like to get Headley, but I don't think I could give up Schoop. What were the Pads asking for, does anyone know?

No, just a guess as to what they'd probably want.

[BobDylanBundy]

Most quality players are locked up by their teams before they reach free agency. Headley will not be a FA until 2014. Maybe you missed what happend in the FA market last year, in past years and the crap that is projected next year. I'm not sure how much the collective bargaining changes will impact free agency, but if this past year was an indicator, Free agency will still be expensive if not more expensive than ever before, especially for quality players..

And like I said before, the O's are in an advantageous position for when this happens. Other teams don't have unlimited spending ability. The O's will clear over $25 million this offseason (assuming they decline their options on Reynolds and Gregg). Then they clear another $14 million the next year with Roberts and Lindstrom. Wieters and Reimold (if you consider him good) are their only good players in line for an arbitration raise anytime soon. If the O's sustain their current payroll level (and in all likelihood it will go up), then you're looking at about 40% of it going towards new player acquisitions. Not many other teams have that luxury.

I simply disagree with this statement/analysis. It's fundamentally misguided on many levels to look primarily at Triple Crown stats and SB's. It represents the flawed logic that you would cause you to de-value players like Chase Headley and many others.

Those stats help you profile players. Good position players - and in particular, corner players - produce most value through their tools, and they stay healthy enough to show it through the counting stats. The players who do everything good but nothing great... that beautiful WAR (which Headley really doesn't even have) suddenly takes a tremendous nosedive as soon as even just one of their tools dips from good to mediocre. If you're going to invest big in a player, you want them to do something well.

Headley was injured last year and was a plus 1 by DRS and a minus 5 by UZR. He's a plus 9.2 /150 UZR rate over his career at third base with a significant amount of chances, and even better by DRS. I'm pretty comfortable projecting Headley as a plus defensive third baseman going forward.

Correct: one strong season and one poor season, as I said, and the rest of his time was in LF. Headley could very well be a plus defensive 3B going forward - he did have one good year - but it takes a great leap of optimism to say that can comfortably be assumed as fact.

He's under team control until 2014. He could be locked up fairly cheaply and is a good bet to provide surplus value imo. I would estimate something like 4/32 would do it pretty easily.

I actually don't disagree on those parameters, though considering the player and commitment that's a little more than what I'd consider 'relatively cheaply'.