3B Available Via Trade?

[CA-ORIOLE]

And like I said before, the O's are in an advantageous position for when this happens. Other teams don't have unlimited spending ability. The O's will clear over $25 million this offseason (assuming they decline their options on Reynolds and Gregg). Then they clear another $14 million the next year with Roberts and Lindstrom. Wieters and Reimold (if you consider him good) are their only good players in line for an arbitration raise anytime soon. If the O's sustain their current payroll level (and in all likelihood it will go up), then you're looking at about 40% of it going towards new player acquisitions. Not many other teams have that luxury.

I'd prefer to look at trades rather than throwing money at Free agency for high value players. I don't see much in the way of efficiencies there. Mid tiers typically blow and high tiers are too expensive. Otherwise we're locking up the right arb and pre-arb guys and making trades. I'd prefer locking up a Headley over an Adam Jones. Whatever we lose on Headley we'd get back plus on Jones. That's why I'd like a deal for somebody like Bourjos to replace Jones perhaps. We can throw money at Wieters and maybe some others (maybe even Andino or Hammel etc.) rather than wasting it on free agency.

Those stats help you profile players. Good position players - and in particular, corner players - produce most value through their tools, and they stay healthy enough to show it through the counting stats. The players who do everything good but nothing great... that beautiful WAR (which Headley really doesn't even have) suddenly takes a tremendous nosedive as soon as even just one of their tools dips from good to mediocre. If you're going to invest big in a player, you want them to do something well.

Again I find this argument fundamentally flawed. Based on your parameters, guys like Ben Zobrist, Nick Johnson and BJ Upton would not be valuable. For another thing, WAR is also based on positional scarcity/replacement value and third base is a pretty tough one. If you want to say that Headley is injury prone, that's fine. but I'm not sure that I agree. Guys that can play well at both ends (offense and defense) have a pretty good chance of achieving high WAR values, and I would say Headley is in that category. So barring injury and/or a team putting him in LF, he should be fine.

As far as the Triple Crown stats, I'll gow with OBP and SLG percentage (wRC+) over HR's and BA. I'll catch all the good guys that you will, the flawed ones that you missed, and the good ones that you overlooked.

Correct: one strong season and one poor season, as I said, and the rest of his time was in LF. Headley could very well be a plus defensive 3B going forward - he did have one good year - but it takes a great leap of optimism to say that can comfortably be assumed as fact.

It's wrong to look at defensive metrics like that imo. Headley has defensive rate of efficency of 9.2/150 UZR (better by DRS) over 2,900+ innings. That he performed average to slightly below average over 890 innings with in an injury year is fairly irrelevant to me. Having seen Headley play and knowing the stats I'm fairly comfortable with him being a plus fielder going forward.

I actually don't disagree on those parameters, though considering the player and commitment that's a little more than what I'd consider 'relatively cheaply'

Depends how you look at value/surplus value, how you view we are as a team, and what we gave up.

Enjoyed the conversation. You may have the last word on this.

[BobDylanBundy]

I'd prefer to look at trades rather than throwing money at Free agency for high value players. I don't see much in the way of efficiencies there. Mid tiers typically blow and high tiers are too expensive. Otherwise we're locking up the right arb and pre-arb guys and making trades. I'd prefer locking up a Headley over an Adam Jones. Whatever we lose on Headley we'd get back plus on Jones. That's why I'd like a deal for somebody like Bourjos to replace Jones perhaps. We can throw money at Wieters and maybe some others (maybe even Andino or Hammel etc.) rather than wasting it on free agency.

The O's have made some questionable signings, but I'd seriously hope they can do better than Andino and Hammel in the free agent market. Free agency costs more in money, trades cost more in talent. As demonstrated in my previous post, the Orioles are in better position to sacrifice money than talent.

Again I find this argument fundamentally flawed. Based on your parameters, guys like Ben Zobrist, Nick Johnson and BJ Upton would not be valuable. For another thing, WAR is also based on positional scarcity/replacement value and third base is a pretty tough one.

Zobrist, when he's valuable, is producing 20 HR / 20 SB results. I absolutely believe that Johnson is not a valuable player and belongs in the minors. Upton steals 40+ bases and is nibbling at 20 HR power. I completely disagree with what you're trying to argue, but even I'll say there's examples out there that support your argument better.

Johnson is in fact the exact example of what I'm talking about. Average contact hitting, maybe slightly above average power, slightly below average speed (for a 1B). A slight dip in his power hitting, and suddenly the middle of the order bat becomes a backup / minor leaguer.

If you want to say that Headley is injury prone, that's fine. but I'm not sure that I agree. Guys that can play well at both ends (offense and defense) have a pretty good chance of achieving high WAR values, and I would say Headley is in that category. So barring injury and/or a team putting him in LF, he should be fine.

I never directly said Headley was injury prone. My point is you want to talk up his WAR values, but his actual WAR values aren't spectacular. They only look good if you project them up over more playing time with a different ballpark. You need to do this for a 28-year old player with 6 years experience.

As far as the Triple Crown stats, I'll gow with OBP and SLG percentage (wRC+) over HR's and BA. I'll catch all the good guys that you will, the flawed ones that you missed, and the good ones that you overlooked.

And as I said, you'll also bring in guys who do everything good and nothing great, who take a tremendous nosedive as soon as even just one of their tools dips from good to mediocre. Player evaluation is not as simplistic as ranking everyone by a single stat and seeing where they fall.

It's wrong to look at defensive metrics like that imo. Headley has defensive rate of efficency of 9.2/150 UZR (better by DRS) over 2,900+ innings. That he performed average to slightly below average over 890 innings with in an injury year is fairly irrelevant to me. Having seen Headley play and knowing the stats I'm fairly comfortable with him being a plus fielder going forward.

Throw out the poor year if you want to attribute it to injury (though you certainly seem willing to factor in the offense produced in that "injury" year). It's also not fair - for better or worse - to include the time scattered in as a backup 3B over 3 seasons. That leaves us with one good year for a 28-year old player who spent the rest of his career as a LF.

[theobird]

I don't think we do anything, because I think JJ Hardy is our third baseman of the future. To me you just stay patient and wait for Machado to come up, shift JJ to third, and voila!! We are set.:thumbsup1:

[Dagger420]

Call me crazy but I'd love to bring on Scott Rolen if we were still in the hunt by the deadline... He cant hit anymore but he's still a solid fielder (probably better than Tejada) and he'd bring that veteran leadership to the table...Plus we could get him for a bag of peanuts...

[Dagger420]

Callaspo for Gregg + Cash. I'm surprised it hasn't already been done actually.

LOLz... You couldn't pay teams to take Gregg...

[Bahama O's Fan]

I don't think we do anything, because I think JJ Hardy is our third baseman of the future. To me you just stay patient and wait for Machado to come up, shift JJ to third, and voila!! We are set.:thumbsup1:

I was thinking more this year if we are still in contention late in June.

[waroriole]

I was thinking more this year if we are still in contention late in June.

Machado isn't coming up this year.

[jtschrei]

LOLz... You couldn't pay teams to take Gregg...

Well you guys have talked me down. I guess I'm overestimating Gregg and underestimating Callaspo. Headley is an interesting option. What is amazing is how few 3b are out there.

[Spoonless]

Have you ever actually seen Youkilis play baseball before? I understand that he's often injured, and your chances to see him have been limited in teh last two or three seasons, but he's an excellent player and a solid contributor when he's healthy.

I'd take him in a second, but I definitely hate his guts.

Problem is that with the injuries he's coming off of, you're not going to want him in the field. I guess we'll see. The Sox are going to have to play him to show he's healthy. I just don't see him being more than a DH for the majority of the season. If he's legitimately healthy, I'd be on it.

[xKHx]

Machado, Schoop, and Britton for Pablo Sandoval

[Bahama O's Fan]

Machado isn't coming up this year.

Exactly, we need someone for this year.

[GoldGlove21]

I am not sure that JJ Hardy has a good enough arm to man third. I think that Andino and Hardy are more likely to be second base options and it doesn't do the Orioles any good to have two of them. I know that you do not move a shortstop to third, but I would venture a guess that Machado would be a good fielding third baseman and he has the arm strength to pull it off. He would also provide an offensive upgrade.

I have said it before and I will say it again, if the Orioles have a chance to make the postseason than they owe it to their fan base to try to get there this year. Call up the guys who can help this team win and get some fans back in the process. If it costs you some money 3, 4 or 5 years from now than so be it.

[El Gordo]

I am not sure that JJ Hardy has a good enough arm to man third. I think that Andino and Hardy are more likely to be second base options and it doesn't do the Orioles any good to have two of them. I know that you do not move a shortstop to third, but I would venture a guess that Machado would be a good fielding third baseman and he has the arm strength to pull it off. He would also provide an offensive upgrade.

I have said it before and I will say it again, if the Orioles have a chance to make the postseason than they owe it to their fan base to try to get there this year. Call up the guys who can help this team win and get some fans back in the process. If it costs you some money 3, 4 or 5 years from now than so be it.

A good SS like Hardy certainly has the arm to play 3B. The problem of switching from SS to 3B is not the throw, it's the reaction time.

[Roll Tide]

Well I guess Bill Hall is the latest experiment.

[scottbbfm]

Interesting news about Headley coming out of San Diego.

"I didn't direct it at any one person. There was no scuffle. Nothing ever happened. I think they understood the message. I don't think it was taken the wrong way. Those guys knew I respected them enough to say that. I would never say anything degrading toward them and I think they respected me enough to understand the point I was trying to make. There was never a rift between anybody."

Headley said he and his teammates try to make every effort to refrain from talking about Petco Park because it's a "lose-lose" situation. Nevertheless, the numbers show that Headley has been a completely different hitter at home and on the road since joining the Padres in 2008. Headley is a career .230 hitter with a .658 OPS in San Diego, and a .303 hitter with an .814 OPS on the road.

"It's tough," he said. "You don't try to talk about it, and that's easy to do that when you're winning. But when you're losing, it gets talked about. We try to keep it out of the clubhouse as much as we can, because it's out of our control."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7920906/chase-headley-san-diego-padres-denies-scuffle-petco-park-dimensions

Stuff like this can be a motivator for teams to move a guy. San Diego is basically out of it already at 11-22 and 10.5 games out of 1st. This also doesn't strike me as a guy who is a bad clubhouse guy but could certainly benefit from a change of scenery (and smaller parks) I think he would be a perfect fit for the AL East. He would also receive a lot more protection in the O's lineup (if you buy the protection argument).

I say go get him. Once Reimold comes back, that would be a sweet sweet lineup.