Arrieta on the Bubble?

[The Rick]

We are talking about a team that has made 20 player moves in 18 days to try to stay in or close to first place. Buck likes Arrieta I am sure but if he keep having trouble with his command I can see Buck making a move. Dana's ERA in under 4, not the 5+ the Jake is carrying. Its not like Jake will not be back. He just may need to work on some things if he has another bad outing against an offense that is not normally a high scoring team.

Ok, so your argument is around:

1.) The O's having made several small moves because of a crazy long stretch of games, an unusual 18 inning game (and several extra inning games for that matter) that threw everything out of whack, and several DL issues that all creeped up at once, which obviously therefore only means that Duq will be quick to pull the trigger on one of our high ceiling pitchers who has, at times been dominant.

2.) Dana Eveland's 10.2 innings this year show he's better than Jake.

Really? That's what you're going with?

[DrungoHazewood]

Usually when a thread title has a question mark following it, it indicates that there is some rumor or article that has been posted to support the title. In this case, I fully expected to see some post from Roch stating that Arrieta was close to losing his place in the rotation if he faltered in DC. This isn't the case, obviously.

No, this is just another case of wildcard's threshold of significance of sample size being far lower than the Orioles'.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ok, so your argument is around:

1.) The O's having made several small moves because of a crazy long stretch of games, an unusual 18 inning game (and several extra inning games for that matter) that threw everything out of whack, and several DL issues that all creeped up at once, which obviously therefore only means that Duq will be quick to pull the trigger on one of our high ceiling pitchers who has, at times been dominant.

2.) Dana Eveland's 10.2 innings this year show he's better than Jake.

Really? That's what you're going with?

Yes, yes it really is.

[wildcard]

Ok, so your argument is around:

1.) The O's having made several small moves because of a crazy long stretch of games, an unusual 18 inning game (and several extra inning games for that matter) that threw everything out of whack, and several DL issues that all creeped up at once.

2.) Dana Eveland's 10.2 innings this year show he's better than Jake.

Really? That's what you're going with?

I didn't say Eveland is a better talent than Jake. But if Jake is not effective tonight then the O's will have to think what is best for the team and what is best to get Jake back on track.

[wildcard]

No, this is just another case of wildcard's threshold of significance of sample size being far lower than the Orioles'.

Hi Jon. Glad to hear from you. Eveland is a spot starter and this may be his spot until Britton is ready.

Eveland pitched well in the minors last year. Well in the majors last year. Well in the minors this year and is now pitching well in the majors this year. It not a small sample, Although I am not trying to say that Eveland is a better talent than Jake. If Jake needs a blow to work on some stuff, then Eveland is there in the short term.

[Aglets]

Dana Eveland has more BB+HBP than he has Innings Pitched this year. Not sure if I've ever seen that before.

Jake is most assuredly not on the bubble yet, but if has a bad start against Washington, and then another bad one against Boston, there will certainly be murmurs.

[Frobby]

According to Roch, Britton is somewhere between 13 and 18 days away from a start in the majors if everything goes well. Eveland is probably the bridge to Britton if another starter is needed. If Arrieta's command fails tonight and he needs to go to the minors to work on it, then Eveland probably gets a few starts. Although the O's could use the day off to go with 4 starters for at least one turn.

I am rooting for Jake to have a good start. Go Jake!!

I do not think Arrieta is in any immediate danger of losing his spot in the rotation, despite his recent struggles. He'd have to be really attrocious for 2-3 more starts before Buck would start thinking that way.

The Nats are not a very good offensive team (3.7 runs/game) and Arrieta ought to be able to put together a quality start tonight. I will be disappointed if he doesn't.

[wildcard]

Dana Eveland has more BB+HBP than he has Innings Pitched this year. Not sure if I've ever seen that before.

Jake is most assuredly not on the bubble yet, but if has a bad start against Washington, and then another bad one against Boston, there will certainly be murmurs.

Did you take into to account the Eveland was starting on three days rest to help his team out?

[TheBee]

Jake Arietta's stuff is beyond question. The Orioles would have to be complete idiots to remove him from the rotation anytime soon. He has the potential to be a 2 or 3 starter similar to Matt Garza. I make that comparison simply because their velocity is identical, they are both right-handed, they both throw about 60% fastballs with the other 40% being mostly sliders and curves that have the potential to be plus pitches (both occasionally show changeups but throw them a very low percentage of the time). Since Arrieta is two years behind Garza - age wise - I would look to Garza's 2010 Al East campaign for comparison. For me it's not about whether Arrieta stays in the rotation. He's got to be given every opportunity to start moving towards his ceiling with his prime years expected to be between 28-30.

-in looking at Garza's 2010 at age 26 his k/9, w/9, and ground ball percentage were worse than Jake's currently are. Hr/9 was essentially the same. There was a 19% difference in BABIP to Garza's favor...how much of that was luck vs command and consistency is an interesting question. Regardless, the Rays didn't replace him in the rotation.

[wildcard]

I do not think Arrieta is in any immediate danger of losing his spot in the rotation, despite his recent struggles. He'd have to be really attrocious for 2-3 more starts before Buck would start thinking that way.

The Nats are not a very good offensive team (3.7 runs/game) and Arrieta ought to be able to put together a quality start tonight. I will be disappointed if he doesn't.

He's already had two stinkers.

6 ER in 6.1 innings vs Texas

7 ER in 3.2 Innings vs Tampa

Those were his last two starts.

I am hoping you are right and he pitches great tonight.

[Frobby]

He's already had two stinkers.

6 ER in 6.1 innings vs Texas

7 ER in 3.2 Innings vs Tampa

Those were his last two starts.

I am hoping you are right and he pitches great tonight.

I consider the Tampa start far worse than the Texas start. The Texas start wasn't great, but Arrieta did make it into the 7th inning against a very potent lineup.

But I'm not here to defend Jake. He clearly needs to pitch better if he wants to keep his spot. I just don't think that the leash is so short that he could lose his spot with a bad performance tonight.

[weams]

"Hatepaste sleeps in Yankee pajamas?"

They were a gift. And he does not wash them. A guy told me.

[zero1]

Only 1 of his last 5 starts have been "quality". If he isn't already on the bubble it's a joke. Matusz started out bad but has looked much better recently and I have more faith when he is on the mound. Hunter has been better than Arrieta this season and has actually pitched well in the majors in the past. Arrieta has all the stuff to be a great pitcher but if he continues to struggle he needs to get sent down and figure out how to control his fastball. If he has a bad outing tonight against a bad Washington offense he should be sent down, Eveland to the rotation, and Pomeranz back to the bullpen. I doubt they will send him down if he does bad tonight because Buck seems to really like him. If he continues to struggle while Matusz and Hunter continue to get better once Britton comes back it will be a no brainer who needs to get sent down.

[weams]

I didn't say Eveland is a better talent than Jake. But if Jake is not effective tonight then the O's will have to think what is best for the team and what is best to get Jake back on track.

I believe that Jake's 96 mph fastball can benefit the major league team better than sending him to the minors. If he loses his spot in the rotation to someone who pitches better, so be it.

[wildcard]

Jake Arietta's stuff is beyond question. The Orioles would have to be complete idiots to remove him from the rotation anytime soon. He has the potential to be a 2 or 3 starter similar to Matt Garza. I make that comparison simply because their velocity is identical, they are both right-handed, they both throw about 60% fastballs with the other 40% being mostly sliders and curves that have the potential to be plus pitches (both occasionally show changeups but throw them a very low percentage of the time). Since Arrieta is two years behind Garza - age wise - I would look to Garza's 2010 Al East campaign for comparison. For me it's not about whether Arrieta stays in the rotation. He's got to be given every opportunity to start moving towards his ceiling with his prime years expected to be between 28-30.

I like the way you think. However Garza is an established major league starter. Arrieta is still learning how to command his stuff. There may be some bumps along the road. Buck has to think of the whole team and how they win tonight. Isn't that what he is preaching to the team.

Jake having a good night solves a lot.