Anyone else a little worried about Jim Johnson?

[Flash- bd]

I know Ryan Flaherty didn't do him any favors today but Jim was pretty hittable. He got away with a mistake to Prince Fielder earlier that could've easily have made it 4-3. He is elevating wayyy too many balls lately.

I'm especially worried if his (lack of) FB command is starting to catch up to him. As we know a lot of metrics have suggested he was due for a regression. We've countered this with the idea that metrics underrate Jim Johnson's ability to induce GBs and weak contact, but this becomes less true when he starts elevating that sinker/2-seemer and he's been doing that a lot lately. My eyes certainly tell me that and the stats seem to support it as well, as his FB has had a negative pitch value (/100) in 3 out of the last 6 games (and I think it's pretty certain it will be negative today--making it 4 out of the last 7--considering all 4 hits came on the FB) after having a negative pitch value with his FB in 1 of the previous 12 outings.

Another thing I don't understand is his hesitancy to throw his curveball. As we saw with Fister yesterday when you have one pitch darting one way fast and another pitch angling another way slow it can really throw off a hitter's timing and ability to square the ball up. I'm not scout but when I've watched JJ pitch this year his curveball has been a very effective pitch, and perhaps more importantly, really makes him difficult to hit when he even shows it to hitters.

I can't tell you how many times I've been watching him this year as he throws sinker after sinker, just praying with each pitch he would throw a curve--there were about 4 pitches before he allowed his HR to Saltalamacchia earlier in the year where I was begging for a curve, and in multiple ABs today it was similar. He threw 5 straight sinkers to Cabrera and came with all straight stuff (3 FBs and two changeups) vs. Bosch when I was begging for one. Overall he threw 2 curves (one was really more like a slider in the dirt, to be honest, to Avila) out of 22 pitches, and even though I know we're in really SSS territory here, both ABs in which he featured it resulted in outs.

Overall he's throwing his curveball 9% of the time this year (down from 10% last year) and his changeup 12% of the time (down from 15% last year), even though they have pitch values of 2.19 and 2.75 respectively.

It's hard to argue with the results but for me Johnson is not a guy that can rely on his control--he doesn't walk a lot of batters but I've never seen him as a guy with really pinpoint control (his F-strike is also worryingly down to 55.8% after 64.5% last year). His sinker movement will bail him out most of the time but against good hitters like Cabrera, as we saw today, they'll figure out a way to square it up. For me he's his nastiest when he's throwing four pitches-- a 4-seemer, 2-seemer, curve, and changeup (even if the curve is just for show) and batters are simply left at a loss to time him/square him up.

[Miamiorioles]

The 3rd baseman fields the ball, Johnson gets save in 9. This team SUCKS on defense.

[Frobby]

Not his best outing by any stretch, but I am not worried about JJ.

[bobmc]

Buck says the BP needs work - too much time off.

[Miamiorioles]

Wondering if we should put Chris Davis at 3rd. Avery in L F.

[Flash- bd]

bump... still too fastball heavy, IMO. 25 pitches, 3 curves, 2 change-ups.

No one's denying he's got a great 2-seemer, but 80% FBs isn't going to cut it when you're not controlling it at all, and it's frankly not necessary considering he has two other quality pitches.

[LookitsPuck]

19 runs from the Twins offense. Stealing signs?

[scOtt]

I know Ryan Flaherty didn't do him any favors today but Jim was pretty hittable. He got away with a mistake to Prince Fielder earlier that could've easily have made it 4-3. He is elevating wayyy too many balls lately.

I'm especially worried if his (lack of) FB command is starting to catch up to him. As we know a lot of metrics have suggested he was due for a regression. We've countered this with the idea that metrics underrate Jim Johnson's ability to induce GBs and weak contact, but this becomes less true when he starts elevating that sinker/2-seemer and he's been doing that a lot lately. My eyes certainly tell me that and the stats seem to support it as well, as his FB has had a negative pitch value (/100) in 3 out of the last 6 games (and I think it's pretty certain it will be negative today--making it 4 out of the last 7--considering all 4 hits came on the FB) after having a negative pitch value with his FB in 1 of the previous 12 outings.

Another thing I don't understand is his hesitancy to throw his curveball. As we saw with Fister yesterday when you have one pitch darting one way fast and another pitch angling another way slow it can really throw off a hitter's timing and ability to square the ball up. I'm not scout but when I've watched JJ pitch this year his curveball has been a very effective pitch, and perhaps more importantly, really makes him difficult to hit when he even shows it to hitters.

I can't tell you how many times I've been watching him this year as he throws sinker after sinker, just praying with each pitch he would throw a curve--there were about 4 pitches before he allowed his HR to Saltalamacchia earlier in the year where I was begging for a curve, and in multiple ABs today it was similar. He threw 5 straight sinkers to Cabrera and came with all straight stuff (3 FBs and two changeups) vs. Bosch when I was begging for one. Overall he threw 2 curves (one was really more like a slider in the dirt, to be honest, to Avila) out of 22 pitches, and even though I know we're in really SSS territory here, both ABs in which he featured it resulted in outs.

Overall he's throwing his curveball 9% of the time this year (down from 10% last year) and his changeup 12% of the time (down from 15% last year), even though they have pitch values of 2.19 and 2.75 respectively.

It's hard to argue with the results but for me Johnson is not a guy that can rely on his control--he doesn't walk a lot of batters but I've never seen him as a guy with really pinpoint control (his F-strike is also worryingly down to 55.8% after 64.5% last year). His sinker movement will bail him out most of the time but against good hitters like Cabrera, as we saw today, they'll figure out a way to square it up. For me he's his nastiest when he's throwing four pitches-- a 4-seemer, 2-seemer, curve, and changeup (even if the curve is just for show) and batters are simply left at a loss to time him/square him up.

WOW! Really? I had a lot more respect for you.

[Va Beach O's fan]

His strikeout rate is pretty terrible so far this year. That usually doesn't bode well for a closer when you get to the later part of the year.

He very well could be falling apart before are eyes. Or maybe he just had two bad games in a row. Who knows. But at this point, I almost don't even think it matters.

I've never been more depressed as an Orioles fan than I am right now. Losing I can handle, we've been losers for a long long time. It's the teases of relevance followed by months of freefalling that end up depressing the crap out of me. Year after year after year of false starts and horrible collapses. This year is no different than any of the rest.

[Flash- bd]

WOW! Really? I had a lot more respect for you.

Well, scOtt, you might tell me what part of this post has you losing respect?

I think Jim is a legitimate concern. We need him to be dominant/nearly flawless (top 3-5 closers in the game) to be even close to a .500 team, and I think there's good reason to think he is not that. I wrote this post before his implosion last night--after the Det. game--so how, again, was I off in suggesting we should be a bit concerned about Jim Johnson, while offering some analysis and reasons why?

[bobmc]

Well, scOtt, you might tell me what part of this post has you losing respect?

I think Jim is a legitimate concern. We need him to be dominant/nearly flawless (top 3-5 closers in the game) to be even close to a .500 team, and I think there's good reason to think he is not that. I wrote this post before his implosion last night--after the Det. game--so how, again, was I off in suggesting we should be a bit concerned about Jim Johnson, while offering some analysis and reasons why?

That was just scOtt's "muscle relaxers" talking.... He'll give your your "Propers" again I am sure

[scOtt]

WOW! Really? I had a lot more respect for you.

Like Bob said, respect was the wrong word. Sorry.

That being said, I don't worry about JJ one bit. Even the best have bad streaks. And he has been one of the best this year.

[scOtt]

That was just scOtt's "muscle relaxers" talking.... He'll give your your "Propers" again I am sure

Beer talking. I didn't get the relaxers til today.

[Can_of_corn]

He's a relief pitcher, this happens. That is why it isn't smart to get emotionally vested in them.

[Flash- bd]

He's a relief pitcher, this happens. That is why it isn't smart to get emotionally vested in them.

Who said anything about being emotionally vested? Or about the historically changeable nature of relief pitchers' performance?

The truth is this doesn't really happen to the very best closers. No one, that I know of, has questioned if Johnson is a good closer or not. But there was a thread a couple weeks ago asking if we should trade Johnson--my take was that, yes, his value is probably the highest it will ever get, so from a philosophical standpoint it makes a lot of sense even if it's not practical--and a lot of people responded with something to the effect of "no, he's too good". That's the real question here: is he too good?

If you want to say this doesn't matter, that's fine. But for me there's a difference between a closer with a 1.15 ERA and one with a 2.60 ERA. There might even be a difference of about 2-4 wins there (not by WAR standards, mind you). I don't think it's wise to just write that off with such a simple response as "he's a relief pitcher, this happens."

I'm repeating myself here, but if Johnson is not as good as he was in the first half it does matter.