Run Differential / Pythag Discussion

[SilentJames]

Don't you hate people who use math and science? What BS!

You may not personally be interested in the hard statistical evidence that the best way to predict future results is based on run differential and not W/L percentage but that doesn't make it BS. It's a mathematically proven fact. I'm actually really intrigued by why people love to dismiss facts like this. I think in this case it's that people think ignoring new fangled statistics demonstrates that they are a true fan of traditional baseball, with all the emotional good stuff that comes with. But you can realize that Wins are what really matters while also recognizing that run differential is a far better predictor of future performance.

Although with the addition of Gonzalez and Tillman, both pitching incredible, and Reynolds finally starting to hit I think we are very likely to perform better than would be expected based on our pythagorean expectations.

See here is the issue. You say it is a mathematical proven fact, but if it was a mathematical proven fact then no team should be able to significantly beat it. But teams do beat it from time to time.

The question is - how have the Orioles done it. And as I have said earlier, luck might work in the short term but it is highly unlikely that the Orioles' season can be chalked up to that. So we dig deeper.

What is more logical, the Orioles are the luckiest team in 100 years of baseball history, or something has happened this year that has significantly impacted their RS/RA to throw off their overall expected win percentage.

[TiredofLosing20]

Don't you hate people who use math and science? What BS!

You may not personally be interested in the hard statistical evidence that the best way to predict future results is based on run differential and not W/L percentage but that doesn't make it BS. It's a mathematically proven fact. I'm actually really intrigued by why people love to dismiss facts like this. I think in this case it's that people think ignoring new fangled statistics demonstrates that they are a true fan of traditional baseball, with all the emotional good stuff that comes with. But you can realize that Wins are what really matters while also recognizing that run differential is a far better predictor of future performance.

Although with the addition of Gonzalez and Tillman, both pitching incredible, and Reynolds finally starting to hit I think we are very likely to perform better than would be expected based on our pythagorean expectations.

I am a believer in the Pyth as a check vs record and thinks it holds value in that usage, however your last sentence for the most part invalidates your first paragraph....

To me the Pyth is a good metric for historical performance. It provides color and context to your W/L and is a vehicle for evaluating where you are. Trying to use it for future performance is tricky at best.

[SrMeowMeow]

See here is the issue. You say it is a mathematical proven fact, but if it was a mathematical proven fact then no team should be able to significantly beat it. But teams do beat it from time to time.

Teams.

Beat.

Their.

Run.

Differential.

Every.

Year.

How do you not understand this? That has nothing to do! With anything!

[El Gordo]

Watching most of the games this season the pattern that emerges to my eye is that the O' pen has often made it a 6 inning game for opponents. In addition the offense, inspite of poor OBP, has scored via the HR. That would seem to be the O's MO. I don't know where to find the numbers but it would be interesting to see the RD of the O's for innings 7-9, as compared to innings 1-6

[BohKnowsBmore]

Don't you hate people who use math and science? What BS!

You may not personally be interested in the hard statistical evidence that the best way to predict future results is based on run differential and not W/L percentage but that doesn't make it BS. It's a mathematically proven fact. I'm actually really intrigued by why people love to dismiss facts like this. I think in this case it's that people think ignoring new fangled statistics demonstrates that they are a true fan of traditional baseball, with all the emotional good stuff that comes with. But you can realize that Wins are what really matters while also recognizing that run differential is a far better predictor of future performance.

Although with the addition of Gonzalez and Tillman, both pitching incredible, and Reynolds finally starting to hit I think we are very likely to perform better than would be expected based on our pythagorean expectations.

I just want to point this out to everyone who keeps saying that "noone is arguing that pythag has any predictive value."

[SurhoffRules]

Watching most of the games this season the pattern that emerges to my eye is that the O' pen has often made it a 6 inning game for opponents. In addition the offense, inspite of poor OBP, has scored via the HR. That would seem to be the O's MO. I don't know where to find the numbers but it would be interesting to see the RD of the O's for innings 7-9, as compared to innings 1-6

Innings 1-6 : RA 403 RS 347

Innings 7-9 : RA 126 RS 121

Source baseball-reference.com

[SilentJames]

Teams.

Beat.

Their.

Run.

Differential.

Every.

Year.

How do you not understand this? That has nothing to do! With anything!

SIGNIFICANTLY BEAT IT!

Seriously if you could just get your pants untwisted for a second and read - The Orioles are significantly, SIGNIFICANTLY, beating their expected win percentage. Either they are the luckiest team in a century, or there is something else happening here.

That is all I am saying here, that's it.

[SilentJames]

Innings 1-6 : RA 403 RS 347

Innings 7-9 : RA 126 RS 121

Source baseball-reference.com

And their RA/RS in extras is very heavy in the Orioles favor if I remember correctly from a broadcast a little while ago.

[SurhoffRules]

And their RA/RS in extras is very heavy in the Orioles favor if I remember correctly from a broadcast a little while ago.

Given that they've done exceedingly well in extra inning games this year, I would expect it to be.

In Extras : RA 5 RS 25

[SrMeowMeow]

SIGNIFICANTLY BEAT IT!

Seriously if you could just get your pants untwisted for a second and read - The Orioles are significantly, SIGNIFICANTLY, beating their expected win percentage. Either they are the luckiest team in a century, or there is something else happening here.

That is all I am saying here, that's it.

Is that your argument? That either we're really lucky, or we're not really lucky?

Then I agree.

As long as you don't absurdly try to turn our crazy outlier of a season into evidence that run differential is flawed or that we must be doing something unmeasurable, we're fine.

[SilentJames]

Is that your argument? That either we're really lucky, or we're not really lucky?

Then I agree.

As long as you don't absurdly try to turn our crazy outlier of a season into evidence that run differential is flawed or that we must be doing something unmeasurable, we're fine.

Pythag is flawed as much as any other stat there is. It is not infallible and situations can arise where it doesn't tell the whole story.

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