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The Eastern Division Race is Over?

bmoreosfan

By bmoreosfan
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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More so than I am now. Chen is clearly tiring. And Gonzalez didn't seem to have his best command his last time out even on 6 days rest. I don't like either going on 4 days rest. Wolf is having arm problems and Tillman's velocity was down a bit last time out. Our long men are being overused. I don't see us going undefeated the rest of the way. And I don't see the MFY losing more than one to the BJ's one to BOS, and one to MIN.

Well, you've been very pessimistic at various junctures ever since the July trade deadline, so I am not surprised that you are pessimistic now. I agree with you that it is very unlikely that we will overtake the Yankees, but then, when we were 10 games behind them it seemed a lot less possible than it does now.

BP puts our odds of winning the division at 6:1 (14.3%). I'd say that is pretty close to correct.

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FanSince88 Major Leaguer

FanSince88

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I don't think the Yanks are that good, but their schedule is such a cupcake to close the season that I have a hard time seeing them losing their grip on 1st place at this point.

The O's will probably lose at least once to the Sox and at least once to the Rays, and as much as I hate to say it I'm pretty sure they will lose at least one more to the Jays today or tomorrow. All the Yanks would then have to do is go 5-4 and they've got the division. That shouldn't be hard against the competition they've got scheduled.

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FanSince88 Major Leaguer

FanSince88

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I love that fans are bemoaning our dwindling chances of taking the division instead of celebrating our near-certain wild card spot. This is what New York and Boston fans do. But seriously, celebrate the playoff spot. It's been a while.

If the Angels go 9-0 and we go 4-4 then they pass us in the WC chase. I'm actually rooting for Oakland the next two games so that Texas has something to play for when they meet LA this weekend. If Texas clinches I could easily see them resting their starters and phoning in this weekend's series vs LA. Combine that with 2 series vs Seattle and it's very easy to see LA winning out.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Well, you've been very pessimistic at various junctures ever since the July trade deadline, so I am not surprised that you are pessimistic now. I agree with you that it is very unlikely that we will overtake the Yankees, but then, when we were 10 games behind them it seemed a lot less possible than it does now.

BP puts our odds of winning the division at 6:1 (14.3%). I'd say that is pretty close to correct.

I not into magical thinking even if it is Orioles Magic. It is not pessimistic to think it unlikely for the O's to win out and the MFY to lose 3 or more. Looking at the match ups and the fact them MFY's have Pettitte back, while the O's SP is being stretched out, with Buck insisting on starting Gonzo and Chen on 4 days rest does not make me hopeful. I am not saying it's impossible, just very unlikely. How is that pessimistic? Had we won Sun. and swept yesterday, I'd be a lot more optimistic. It's not just losing, it's how we lost that worries me.
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Winning_Season Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Winning_Season

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Anything can happen of course, but how reasonable is it to think that the MFY will lose 3 or more G and the O's won't lose another? How confident are you the the O's SP?

How reasonable is it that the Orioles have won 14 straight extra inning games? How reasonable is it that on the last night of the regular season last year the Yankees gave up a seven run lead and the Red Sox lost the game with two outs, two strikes and nobody on?? How reasonable is it that the Orioles actually have a winning season this year???

It's not reasonable and that is why its baseball and that is why I love it! What's going to happen in the last week of the season? I have no idea and I can't wait to see it!

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stomperspc Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

stomperspc

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If the Angels go 9-0 and we go 4-4 then they pass us in the WC chase. I'm actually rooting for Oakland the next two games so that Texas has something to play for when they meet LA this weekend. If Texas clinches I could easily see them resting their starters and phoning in this weekend's series vs LA. Combine that with 2 series vs Seattle and it's very easy to see LA winning out.

The Yankees are two games behind the Rangers for the top spot in the AL and the Yankees hold the head to head tiebreaker (4-3). I don't think Texas would be phoning it in this weekend. The last series of the season versus Oakland might or might not be a different story, but I doubt they will be in any position by this weekend to rest their starters.

Plus, Seattle is not a push over. It would surprise me if they dropped six straight to the Angels.

The doom and gloom is pretty funny. The AL East is going to be tough to win at this point but it is not impossible. The O's are still in the driver's seat in the wild card, yet some act like that is slipping away. The wild card is only slipping away if you believe that the O's are going to finish terribly, the Rays and/or Angels are going to play very good to great (ie. not losing more than a game or two from here on out) and that the A's will play over .500 with the tough remaining schedule. All of that could happen, but to act like it is the most likely scenario at this stage is borderline ludicrous.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Ground breaking statement of the season. Well if we had won that game that we lost I'd like our chances more
"It's not just losing, it's how we lost that worries me " You ingnore this statement to suit your snarky purposes. Why not simply address the point of the post?
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I am not saying it's impossible, just very unlikely. How is that pessimistic? .

Your words were, "forget about the division." That's what I took as pessimistic. The stance you are taking now makes perfect sense to me. But I am not going to "forget about the division" for at least a few more days.

Personally, I'm more focused on securing a playoff spot before I worry about anything else anyway.

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Pedro Cerrano Hangout Grand Counsel

Pedro Cerrano

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We have won 7 of our last 9 games, 10 of our last 14, and are 15-8 in September after going 18-9 in August. And people are actually complaining about how poorly we're playing? You have got to be kidding me.

Honestly, take a step back and look at what this team has done the last 2+ months. And now you are going to whine because we've lost 2 out of 3? That is ridiculous.

Frankly, none of this matters. All that matters is right now and right now we've lost 2 of 3 to teams well below .500 with every other team around us looking like world beaters.

I'm terrified of even making the playoffs.

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CSB Jack Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

CSB Jack

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Frankly, none of this matters. All that matters is right now and right now we've lost 2 of 3 to teams well below .500 with every other team around us looking like world beaters.

I'm terrified of even making the playoffs.

Wow. Not just this poster, but all the other gloom and doomers as well. I'm not cocky and arrogant, and won't be until we have officially clinched a spot, but neither am I giving up on the division until it's mathematically impossible. If I were forced to make a wager of my life on it I'd say that the Yankees would probably win at least a share of the division, but it's not inconceivable at all for them to lose two games more than the Orioles over the remainder of the season. They have by far the easier schedule but the games still have to be played.

I believe the Orioles are going to be in the postseason. First goal is to win the division outright. If that can't be, then I want to tie for the division so that the Yankees have to come to Camden Yards to play us for the division. More than anything I want to finish ahead of the A's/Angels/Rays so that if we have to play a wild card game then at least it's in Baltimore. But by golly, if the Orioles have to go to the west coast to play one game before coming back to host the first games of the ALDS, then so be it.

The goal is to win the World Series. To do that you have to take it a step at a time, a game at a time. I believe this team still believes in itself and will not collapse down the stretch. I'd feel a lot better about it if Markakis wasn't hurt, but McLouth has done pretty well in the leadoff spot. I'd feel better if Hammel was 100%. But overall I still like this team and its chances of getting to the postseason and winning some games there.

If not, so be it. I don't think anyone had us down to win 90+ games this year, certainly I didn't. This chase could be the best one since 1982, and we came from 4 back with 9 games left to play a winner-take-all game the last day of the season. Too bad we don't finish with the Yankees in Baltimore, but it's just great to be talking like this about the Orioles and the postseason in the last week and a half of the season!

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