Buck wants J.J. Hardy out of the 2 hole

[PaulFolk]

I don't really get it. He wants him out of the 2 hole? Is he implying that Dan is forcing him to bat him 2nd in the lineup?

How'd you get that implication? The article is very straightforward. Buck batted Hardy #2 last year because he felt he didn't have any better options. This year, he might have better options, so he might move down Hardy.

[crowmst3k!]

Batting Hardy 7th is a good move.

Keep guys like Davis, Wieters Reimold/Betemit ahead in the order, have Hardy open up the bottom third of the order, followed by Machado, and (unless he proves otherwise) Roberts or Casilla at 9th.

[Can_of_corn]

How'd you get that implication? The article is very straightforward. Buck batted Hardy #2 last year because he felt he didn't have any better options. This year, he might have better options, so he might move down Hardy.

The problem is, last season Buck had, on most nights, seven clearly better options and put Hardy there anyway.

[Can_of_corn]

Please explain why someone so important to the offense should be batting 4th instead of 3rd. I really don't understand that statement.Tradionally your best hitter bats 3rd. Jones batting 3rd instead of Wieters makes sense on two levels. He's the better hitter and he has much more speed. They get on base at just about the same rate but Jones is the more productive hitter. I'd rather have Wieters driving in Jones than the other way around, which is more difficult anyway, with Wieters running. I don't have a huge problem with Wieters 3rd and Jones 4th, mostly because Jones batted 4th last year, and maybe he likes it there and Wieters has said he prefers to hit 3rd. However, I see no logical reason, other than player's preferences, for doing it.

I have posted this a couple of times before over the years, so apologies to everyone seeing it again.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

The Third Spot

The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower.

[El Gordo]

If Roberts is in the OD lineup he will be leading off. He wil be leading off until or if his numbers there become painful. Nick will be batting #2.

[Can_of_corn]

If Roberts is in the OD lineup he will be leading off. He wil be leading off until or if his numbers there become painful. Nick will be batting #2.

He kept batting leadoff last season with "painful" numbers. What makes you think Buck will pull the plug on him this season?

[stomperspc]

He kept batting leadoff last season with "painful" numbers. What makes you think Buck will pull the plug on him this season?

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, but Buck does have more options this season. Markakis was out the entire time Roberts was back last season. McLouth hadn't been called up yet. Reimold was injured. It was either leave Roberts atop the order or put someone like Avery, Andino, or Flaherty in that spot - none of which were necessarily better options. I am not completely sure Buck will pull Roberts if he isn't cutting it in the lead off spot this year but I don't think last year's situation is directly comparable.

[El Gordo]

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, but Buck does have more options this season. Markakis was out the entire time Roberts was back last season. McLouth hadn't been called up yet. Reimold was injured. It was either leave Roberts atop the order or put someone like Avery, Andino, or Flaherty in that spot - none of which were necessarily better options. I am not completely sure Buck will pull Roberts if he isn't cutting it in the lead off spot this year but I don't think last year's situation is directly comparable.

If Roberts isn't hitting in the #1 spot it's not likely they keep him in the lineup for his glove. Casilla is a better option batting #9. Either Roberts hits in the #1 spot or he doesn't play IMO. He'll be given a long leash though.

[BRobinsonfan]

As a former player and coach. It matters who bats infront and behind. The stats may not be able show much of a difference. But ask any player if it matters. I'm sure most will say it does.

Not trying to be argumentative, but why wouldn't it show up in the stats?

[El Gordo]

Not trying to be argumentative, but why wouldn't it show up in the stats?

IMO, you can't get a large enough sample size with the same combination af players, to show anything either way. Lineups change too frequently for a variety of reasons.

[Bradysburns]

To paraphrase William Carlos Williams, "It all depends on the oft-injured Reimold."

If Reimold comes back and stays healthy - which I give about a 20% chance of happening - then you have some great options. If he's at DH with McClouth in left, I could see something like this (given Buck's L/R leanings):

McClouth

Reimold

Markakis

Jones

Davis

Wieters

Machado

Casilla

Hardy

That's a lot of power potential in the nine hole... but what the heck? The last three slots in this imaginary order are interchangeable, to some degree.

[El Gordo]

To paraphrase William Carlos Williams, "It all depends on the oft-injured Reimold."

If Reimold comes back and stays healthy - which I give about a 20% chance of happening - then you have some great options. If he's at DH with McClouth in left, I could see something like this (given Buck's L/R leanings):

McClouth

Reimold

Markakis

Jones

Davis

Wieters

Machado

Casilla

Hardy

That's a lot of power potential in the nine hole... but what the heck? The last three slots in this imaginary order are interchangeable, to some degree.

I'd flip flop Hardy and Casilla. The 9 hitter should be the second #1 hitter.

[scOtt]

If Roberts is in the OD lineup he will be leading off. He wil be leading off until or if his numbers there become painful. Nick will be batting #2.

Pure speculation but I think if healthy Roberts will bat ninth. He will be guaranteed less ABs there. Less wear and tear. Get him to September and beyond. Just like he grabbed Chen an extra days rest early on. Other pitchers getting extra days to keep them rested. Same treatment with Brian.

He kept batting leadoff last season with "painful" numbers. What makes you think Buck will pull the plug on him this season?

In Buck's defense... if he had stayed healthy but non-productive, Buck probably moves him down or makes a change by June. Sort of a sss for Brian last year.

[Can_of_corn]

Pure speculation but I think if healthy Roberts will bat ninth. He will be guaranteed less ABs there. Less wear and tear. Get him to September and beyond. Just like he grabbed Chen an extra days rest early on. Other pitchers getting extra days to keep them rested. Same treatment with Brian.

In Buck's defense... if he had stayed healthy but non-productive, Buck probably moves him down or makes a change by June. Sort of a sss for Brian last year.

You have no proof he would have, after all he kept Hardy in the #2 hole last year despite his offensive play. Where did Vlad bat in '11?

[scOtt]

You have no proof he would have, after all he kept Hardy in the #2 hole last year despite his offensive play. Where did Vlad bat in '11?

True. But Brian was worse at #1 than JJ was at #2. After the first couple games Brian couldn't hit the ball out of his own shadow.