Could Orioles trade Jim Johnson for Porcello?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think he's a back-end arm (#4ish) that could have seasons with #2 production when luck breaks his way. Potential 190+ inning arm with better defense behind him.

Ok, that's fair. Thanks.

[Ruzious]

Also let's please stop with the Johnson is the ace of our bullpen and the closer is the most important man in the pen stuff. I watched every game last year. Darren O'Day was the most valuable reliever we had. He got out lefties and righties, got strikeouts and groundballs when we needed them, and generally pitched lights out despite a fairly heavy workload. He is our best reliever and I would keep him in the role he is in. In fact, by the end of the year last year I was beginning to think he might be the most valuable player on the entire team.

That's a bold statement. And I concur. He was what they used to call a fireman.

I think the O's should look to trade Johnson before he becomes a free agent, but there's no hurry - so I wouldn't entertain a Porcello trade at this point.

[Number5]

Yeah, I think the real issue we are having here is deciding the relative value of a starting pitcher to a closer, not the skill level of Porcello or Johnson.

Yes. And right now, considering the options available to these teams to meet their needs and the costs involved, JJ appears to me to be more valuable, both to Detroit and to Baltimore, than Porcello. Signing Saunders is a very real option for the Orioles. Additionally, the Orioles do have a staff at AAA full of pitchers that now have MLB experience. They have numbers. If Detroit feels they need a late inning RP to take the next step, and if they are not yet ready to anoint Rendon as their closer, what options do they have and at what cost? These are very real considerations for both of these teams, IMO. This is why I think it is Detroit that has to sweeten the deal with a prospect, not Baltimore, regardless of any perceived upside advantage Porcello may have. Frankly, I see Baltimore as the team that would need to be sold on such a deal, not Detroit.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yes. And right now, considering the options available to these teams to meet their needs and the costs involved, JJ appears to me to be more valuable, both to Detroit and to Baltimore, than Porcello. Signing Saunders is a very real option for the Orioles. Additionally, the Orioles do have a staff at AAA full of pitchers that now have MLB experience. They have numbers. If Detroit feels they need a late inning RP to take the next step, and if they are not yet ready to anoint Rendon as their closer, what options do they have and at what cost? These are very real considerations for both of these teams, IMO. This is why I think it is Detroit that has to sweeten the deal with a prospect, not Baltimore, regardless of any perceived upside advantage Porcello may have. Frankly, I see Baltimore as the team that would need to be sold on such a deal, not Detroit.

Agree and it's not like there aren't statistical evaluations that show JJ being much more valuable and not the slam dunk the Porcello side seems to think this trade is. It depends a lot on how you look at factors like DIPS, leverage performance, and how much you believe O'Day/Strop etc are going to step in and be JJ Johnson next year.

-From 2010-2102 Porcello pitched 520 innings and was worth a 1.3 rWAR.

-In the last two years, JJ has pitched 159 innings and been worth 4.8 rWAR.

The determining factor should be Porcello's upside, which isn't that impressive ..... at least to me.

[El Gordo]

I think the O's are confident in signing Saunders. They are just waiting to see if they have to offer him more than one year. I doubt they are giving any thought to JJ for Porcello.

[Stotle]

Guthrie is a career 55-77 pitcher. He was largely a failure here and from all reports a clubhouse cancer. If that's how you like to spend your $50 million, then God Bless.

After reading this, I'd like to change my answer.

I'd like to spend the $9,999,824.36 on Guthrie, $175.64 on some books for you to help bring your modern player valuation skills into the 21st century, then slap you a couple times to help you stay awake long enough to read posts accurately.

[Tx Oriole]

After reading this, I'd like to change my answer.

I'd like to spend the $9,999,824.36 on Guthrie, $175.64 on some books for you to help bring your modern player valuation skills into the 21st century, then slap you a couple times to help you stay awake long enough to read posts accurately.

Well maybe some coffee instead of a slap would help him to stay awake.

[crawjo]

Yes. And right now, considering the options available to these teams to meet their needs and the costs involved, JJ appears to me to be more valuable, both to Detroit and to Baltimore, than Porcello. Signing Saunders is a very real option for the Orioles. Additionally, the Orioles do have a staff at AAA full of pitchers that now have MLB experience. They have numbers. If Detroit feels they need a late inning RP to take the next step, and if they are not yet ready to anoint Rendon as their closer, what options do they have and at what cost? These are very real considerations for both of these teams, IMO. This is why I think it is Detroit that has to sweeten the deal with a prospect, not Baltimore, regardless of any perceived upside advantage Porcello may have. Frankly, I see Baltimore as the team that would need to be sold on such a deal, not Detroit.

I guess my view on this is that the best way to build and maintain a bullpen is to acquire a bunch of viable starting pitchers and then throw whoever doesn't make the rotation into the bullpen. I thought it made our bullpen much improved at the end of last year, when we could move Matusz and Hunter into short relief roles.

For that reason, I tend to see most closers as being fairly expendable. There are a few elite closers that are on a different level, but most of them, are, to my mind, in a similar range in terms of performance. Look at the Orioles from 2000 to 2012, for instance. During that time the team was pretty bad, for the most part, but we had, at various points, quite a number of good closers. B.J. Ryan was great in 2005. He left and signed a huge contract with Toronto and we replaced him with Chris Ray in 2006, who wasn't as good but who still saved 33 games with a 2.73 ERA that year. Ray struggled in 2007, so we dumped him for George Sherrill, who was mediocre in 2008 but then very good in 2009. Then he got traded and in 2010 we were terrible most of the year but by the end of the year had found another good closer in Uehara. Then in one of the dumbest moves of MacPhail's tenure, we signed Kevin Gregg to a huge deal when we already had Uehara there, and Gregg was pretty bad in 2011. So then we just moved on to Jim Johnson in 2012. So in a 7-year time span we had five guys who at various points performed well in the closer's role (Ryan, Ray, Sherrill, Uehara, Johnson).

So my view is that Johnson is indeed replaceable, and the best way to build a bullpen is to stock it with starting pitchers. If we did that, I'd have confidence that we could find another strong closer fairly quickly.

[Can_of_corn]

Well maybe some coffee instead of a slap would help him to stay awake.

Naw, too much caffeine isn't good for you.

[Ruzious]

After reading this, I'd like to change my answer.

I'd like to spend the $9,999,824.36 on Guthrie, $175.64 on some books for you to help bring your modern player valuation skills into the 21st century, then slap you a couple times to help you stay awake long enough to read posts accurately.

Thank you, Stotle. Without Guthrie, the O's were a minor league caliber team for some of those years. It wasn't his fault he was given pathetic run support and uneven defense. He played through an oblique injury - basically the same injury that Erik Bedard went home with. The nickname Gutts fit him. And he seemed like the kind of guy I would like my son to grow up like.

[SteveO]

After reading this, I'd like to change my answer.

I'd like to spend the $9,999,824.36 on Guthrie, $175.64 on some books for you to help bring your modern player valuation skills into the 21st century, then slap you a couple times to help you stay awake long enough to read posts accurately.

LMAO...thank you so much for causing my coffee to be violently expelled from my nasal passages in laughter.

[SteveO]

Far as trading for Porcello. Seriously??? I think we have enough youngish pitchers who are inconsistent. But yea lets trade our 50 save closer for another. I would rather let Britton, Matusz or Arrieta have at a spot in the rotation than trade Johnson for Porcello who is on the outside looking in for a reason. That trade is plain goofy IMO

[waroriole]

Naw, too much caffeine isn't good for you.

But, coffee is supposed to be good for you now.

[crawjo]

Far as trading for Porcello. Seriously??? I think we have enough youngish pitchers who are inconsistent. But yea lets trade our 50 save closer for another. I would rather let Britton, Matusz or Arrieta have at a spot in the rotation than trade Johnson for Porcello who is on the outside looking in for a reason. That trade is plain goofy IMO

But even if Porcello never improves from where he is right now, the pitcher he is today is clearly better than the pitcher Britton, Matusz or Arrieta are today. The argument for not trading for Porcello is that surely one of those guys will step up and be a reliable starter. Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Arrieta steps up and Gonzalez falls apart. Maybe somebody gets hurt and we're short on starters again. Or maybe by getting Porcello you allow these other guys to move to the bullpen, where they can be more effective. That's the argument for trading for Porcello.

[Number5]

But even if Porcello never improves from where he is right now, the pitcher he is today is clearly better than the pitcher Britton, Matusz or Arrieta are today. The argument for not trading for Porcello is that surely one of those guys will step up and be a reliable starter. Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Arrieta steps up and Gonzalez falls apart. Maybe somebody gets hurt and we're short on starters again. Or maybe by getting Porcello you allow these other guys to move to the bullpen, where they can be more effective. That's the argument for trading for Porcello.

Sounds like a better argument for signing Saunders to me.