AL East Predictions

[Spirus]

Toronto (94 wins) - everything actually works out mostly ok for them despite their question marks and they would have easily had the best record in baseball if not in the AL East.

Tampa Bay (90 wins) - Their young pitching steps up, good low budget signings and the Shields trade pay off and their lineup is the best it's been in years.

Baltimore (86 wins) - The lineup takes another step forward but the SP is inconsistent, at best, and we end up using 15 different SPs by the end of the season and the bullpen, while quite good, isn't able to cover for them as well this year.

Boston (86 wins) - The Red Sox show signs of life and thier stopgap roster, when coupled with the purging of its 2012 headcases, actually does adequately.

New York (63 wins) - The Yankees implode. By midseason the most popular joke in sports is that they should convert thier locker room into a retirement community. Youk and Jeter spend half a season each on the DL. Tex is no better than average. Granderson hits homeruns but does absolutely nothing else. Sabathia blows out his arm as karmic punishment. By midseason the lineup is half AAA rejects that have been released by the Orioles, Jason Pirdie bats 5th five nights a week.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Of all their SP Dickey is the one I have the most confidence in. His knuckler seems to work better in domes. He is the one SP I wished we had traded for. I would have offered Tillman, Strop, Schoop +, if we could have extended him.

I agree, both in terms of confidence in his 2013 performance and wishing we had been able to trade for him. But I do think he won't be quite as dominant as he was last year since he'll be losing 130-150 borderline free outs due to the DH.

[OriolesHash1]

They will beat up each other

Orioles - I predict Bundy up for playoffs, and reimold to have a big year

Rays - Remember last year they were without longoria awhile, and they have the pitching to replace shields

Yankees - They'll somehow make a big trade, and they'll have CC

Jays - I think they are very overrated. Dickey won't have the same success in the AL east he did in the NL east, neither will johnson, and bueherle isnt good

Red Sox - No chance

[crawjo]

I saw a few threads on the upcoming season and wanted to get your thoughts on how the AL East will shape up. Always a tough division to predict. I still think the Yankees are the team to beat despite all the moves the Blue Jays made. Arod is addition by subtraction. I also think the Red Sox will be better since Bobby Valentine is gone, but not sure they can get out of the cellar. I think we will not repeat our success this season unfortunately. Not enough was done to fortify the roster this offseason, but the big factor will be a lack of starting pitching due to ineffectiveness and injury.

My predictions:

NY Yankees

Toronto

Tampa Bay

Baltimore

Red Sox

Tough tough division, wow.

I think you nailed it with this first post. I'd pick them in that order, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Yankees collapsed this year, either. Cano, Sabathia, and their veteran depth might be enough to get them another division title, but I could also see the wheels coming off really quickly.

[Sanfran327]

Well while they are terribly weak you have a lineup that has Granderson, Cano, and Tex. Add to that Gardner, Hafner, Youkalis, Jeter and Ichiro and its a decent lineup. They can make moves and improve that. The rotation might stink but they can bring in any pitcher they want and they really do have good depth in the minors, a lot of talent there.

I still don't know why they haven't signed Bourn to a 1-yr deal. I'm guessing they will later this week.

[SeaBird]

Well while they are terribly weak you have a lineup that has Granderson, Cano, and Tex. Add to that Gardner, Hafner, Youkalis, Jeter and Ichiro and its a decent lineup. They can make moves and improve that. The rotation might stink but they can bring in any pitcher they want and they really do have good depth in the minors, a lot of talent there.

The rotation looks fine:

1. C. Sabathia

2. H. Kuroda

3. A. Pettitte

4. P. Hughes

5. I. Nova

6. D. Phelps

And Pineda should be back at some point.

[badcobully]

Rays

Yanks

O's

Blue Jays

Red Sux

[markakis8]

It's going to be interesting. I'm not gonna lie, I could see any team finishing first (even the Red Sox. If guys like Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz have MVP type years....and Lester, Buchholz, Dempster pitch at Cy Young levels - it's a stretch but you can SEE it happening.)

If I HAD to go with my gut.....

1. Toronto

2. Tampa Bay

3. Baltimore

4. New York

5. Boston

In this scenario, let's hope it's TB v. Bal in the WC game.

[isestrex]

It's going to be interesting. I'm not gonna lie, I could see any team finishing first (even the Red Sox. If guys like Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz have MVP type years....and Lester, Buchholz, Dempster pitch at Cy Young levels - it's a stretch but you can SEE it happening.)

If I HAD to go with my gut.....

1. Toronto

2. Tampa Bay

3. Baltimore

4. New York

5. Boston

In this scenario, let's hope it's TB v. Bal in the WC game.

It's a big leap hoping both WC teams come from the AL East. To be honest, I think there's a greater possibility of both coming out of the West than the East. More than likely, there will be one each (with the chances of a Central WC being less than 0%)

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree, both in terms of confidence in his 2013 performance and wishing we had been able to trade for him. But I do think he won't be quite as dominant as he was last year since he'll be losing 130-150 borderline free outs due to the DH.

I think you've overstated this effect by a factor of 2 or 3. Last year pitchers had 64 PAs against Dickey, or about two per start. An AL pitcher will still make 2, 3, 4 starts against NL teams, so he'll still face pitchers maybe five or 10 times. So you can reasonably say Dickey will face pitchers in about 55 fewer PAs this year. About 1/17th of his batters faced.

[foxfield]

Orioles 95 wins

Rays 92 wins

Blue Jays 89 wins

Yankees 85 wins

Red Sox 78 wins

I'm a believer.

Without a trace, of doubt in your mind?

[Bradysburns]

I think a handful of games seperate the AL East. They are all 84-86 W teams IMO. I'd give a slight edge to TOR, but I see the O's and the Rays right behind them with the MFY and BOS right behind us. Right now I'd guess,

TOR 89 W

O's 87 W

TB 86 w

MFY 84 W

BOS 82 W

This looks about right to me. I would not be surprised if Boston make a leap into the top-three, however. They have some good young talent coming back, and have exercised some of their demons. I think they also made some pretty solid additions this offseason. That's the one team I think could surprise - not by competing for the playoffs but by staying in the conversation well into the season.

[joe42]

Without a trace, of doubt in your mind?

I'm an optimist! I do like our chances.

[DrungoHazewood]

TOR 89 W

O's 87 W

TB 86 w

MFY 84 W

BOS 82 W

If you know with 100% certainty that every team is an 85-win team on true talent, you'll still get teams that win 70 and teams that win 90. So when you say every team in the East should win between 82 and 89 games, you're saying they probably will win between 65 and 95.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I think you've overstated this effect by a factor of 2 or 3. Last year pitchers had 64 PAs against Dickey, or about two per start. An AL pitcher will still make 2, 3, 4 starts against NL teams, so he'll still face pitchers maybe five or 10 times. So you can reasonably say Dickey will face pitchers in about 55 fewer PAs this year. About 1/17th of his batters faced.

Right on. Good info. I was posting from my phone so I just guesstimated and, in hindsight, I can see that I definitely overestimated the number of opposing SPs that had QSs against him. Still, the quality of the DHs he will face in the AL will probably be a bit higher than the quality of a decent percentage of the PHs he faced in the NL.