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AL East Predictions

Rene88

By Rene88
in Orioles Talk

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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1B Teix Loney Napoli Encarnacion Davis O's #3

2B Cano Johnson Pedroia Bonafacio Roberts/Casilla O's #5

3B Youkilis Longoria Middlebrooks Lawrie Machado O's#3

SS Jeter Escobar Drew Reyes Hardy O's #2

LF Gardner Joyce Gomes Cabrera McLouth/Reimold O's #2

CF Granderson Jennings Ellsbury Rasmus Jones O's #2

RF Ichiro Zobrist Victorino Bautista Markakis O's #3

C Romine Molina Salty Arencibia Wieters O''s #1

DH Hafner Scott Ortiz Lind Betemit/Reimold O's #3

Seems to me the O's are very competitive. The only position where they are truly weak is 2B If I had to pick my All AL East team it would be: C Wieters 1B Encarnacion, 2B Cano, 3B Longoria, SS Hardy, LF McLouth/Reimold, CF Jones, RF, Zobrist, DH Ortiz

SP:

CC Price Lester Dickey Hammel O's #5

Kuroda Moore Dempster Johnson Chen O's# 3

Pettitte Hellikson Bucholz Buehrle Tillman O's #3

Hughes Niemann Dubront Morrow Gonzo O's #2

Nova Cobb Lackey Romero Britton/Matusz/Jurrjens etc. O's #3

O's SP looks competitive with the exception of the #1 SP. Lots of Question marks for everyone except TB IMO. That's why I would give them the edge or the AL East:

TB

O's

TOR

MFY

BOS

Just looking at this, suppose we could play Zobrist at 2B and put Dickey at #1 SP, bumpimg everyone down a spot. think of how good we would be.

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SeaBird Major Leaguer

SeaBird

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Tony DeMarco's take on the 2013 Orioles:

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/50736763/ns/sports-baseball/

Baltimore Orioles: A powerful double-whammy of historical trends is working against the Dan Duquette/Buck Showalter combo:

•In the last 50 years, teams that improved by at least 25 games one season have followed that up by finishing an average of 11 games worse in the following season. The most recent example: The Arizona Diamondbacks -- 2010: 65-97; 2011: 94-68; 2012: 81-81.

•Anything close to the 2012 Orioles' historic 29-9 mark in one-run games is highly unlikely -- Showalter's in-game genius notwithstanding. The corollary to this is the 2012 Orioles' 93-69 record, despite a +7 run-differential, suggested an 82-80 mark.

So, welcome to 2013, Orioles. The counteraction to these trends should have been making significant roster improvements. But that's not the case:

Additions: Danny Valencia, Alexi Casilla, Jair Jurrjens.

Subtractions: Mark Reynolds, Robert Andino, Joe Saunders, Jim Thome, Endy Chavez, Randy Wolf, Nick Johnson, Bill Hall.

A full season of Manny Machado lends promise. Maybe one of the starting pitchers -- Chris Tillman? -- breaks out. Maybe Brian Roberts is healthy enough to contribute. Maybe Dylan Bundy makes an impact similar to Machado's in 2012. But there aren't enough solid reasons to expect another 90-win season here.

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mrbig1 Hangout Grand Counsel

mrbig1

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I think the AL east is a toss up. Anybody can get hot. The Redsox are a long shot but the others can win this race. Pitching and defence is still the key. The Birds are as good as anybody else. Now our team knows it can win. Which is a big plus. If Brian,Nolan,and Nick can step up the Division is ours.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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The AL East turns on who has the best SP. Right now that's TB. But any one of the MFY, TOR, BAL. or BOS, can step up or fall by the wayside depending on the health and effectiveness of their SP quetion marks. I like the O's because they have the most depth to comensate for their question marks.

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isestrex Hangout Grand Counsel

isestrex

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I am surprised that so many of you don't recognize what is right in front of your face:

O's 97

Tor 90

Jays 84

Sox 82

Yanks 79

The Orioles are the only team that has a young core, entering their prime who have played together for years.

Of course... how could we be so stupid ;)

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jackprac Rookie

jackprac

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Tony DeMarco's take on the 2013 Orioles:

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/50736763/ns/sports-baseball/

Baltimore Orioles: A powerful double-whammy of historical trends is working against the Dan Duquette/Buck Showalter combo:

•In the last 50 years, teams that improved by at least 25 games one season have followed that up by finishing an average of 11 games worse in the following season. The most recent example: The Arizona Diamondbacks -- 2010: 65-97; 2011: 94-68; 2012: 81-81.

•Anything close to the 2012 Orioles' historic 29-9 mark in one-run games is highly unlikely -- Showalter's in-game genius notwithstanding. The corollary to this is the 2012 Orioles' 93-69 record, despite a +7 run-differential, suggested an 82-80 mark.

So, welcome to 2013, Orioles. The counteraction to these trends should have been making significant roster improvements. But that's not the case:

Additions: Danny Valencia, Alexi Casilla, Jair Jurrjens.

Subtractions: Mark Reynolds, Robert Andino, Joe Saunders, Jim Thome, Endy Chavez, Randy Wolf, Nick Johnson, Bill Hall.

A full season of Manny Machado lends promise. Maybe one of the starting pitchers -- Chris Tillman? -- breaks out. Maybe Brian Roberts is healthy enough to contribute. Maybe Dylan Bundy makes an impact similar to Machado's in 2012. But there aren't enough solid reasons to expect another 90-win season here.[/quote/]

A lot has been made of the O's record in one-run games, but isn't everybody kinda double counting here. I believe that our record in regulation was 19 and 7 in one-run games and 10 and 2 in extra inning one-run games. I believe that this is more a result of Duq and Buck's Norfolk-Balt. express and Buck's masterful day-to-day management of the bullpen than the non-quantifiable excuse that the pundits ( and some OHers) give-LUCK. I believe that Duq know this and will do their best to repeat a winning bullpen management strategy.IMHO

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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The problem with the RD/one RW's /X IN W's argument is that we were essentially two different teams last season. The first half, a poor fielding, poor SP team, that had a -36 RD but still managed to go 19-6 in one run games and win 5 more G than it lost, because of a phenomonal pen. I'd say this team would be lucky to live up to the PECOTA projections. But the second half team was a plus defending, sold SP team, with a + 43 RD that went a more reasonable 10-3 in one R G's and won 19 more games than is lost becuse of a still strong well managed bullpen. I'd say this team would be an 84-86 W team this year.

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Going Underground Hangout Grand Counsel

Going Underground

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Does anyone really know what will happen? Yankees could be beset by injuries.Do the O's play alot of close games and win? Do the Blue Jays become the Marlins of last year? Signed alot of name free agents but Marlins self destructed. Does Tampa pitching keep them on top? Do the Red Sox make a comeback with a new attitude and dugout cancer clearing. Have a couple of former MVP candidates. I don't think anyone honestly picked the O's to finish one game behind the Yanks.

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