AL East Predictions

[Mayor McCheese]

TampaBay

Toronto

Yankees

Baltimore

Redsox

O's will be under .500 again.

Is there going to be some kind of fire sale during spring training???

I don't see how at all the team regressed to an < 81 win team. I can see us being an 84-92 win team barring injuries. I think that puts us right in the #2/#3 ranks in the AL East..

[brianod]

I think you would have to admit that many teams like their manager and teammates and where they are and win 72 games. The Orioles liked Buck, liked their teammates, liked Baltimore, and in 2011 they won 69 games.

And yes, any metric is going to be agnostic on what happens in the dugout for nine months. And yet past performance and general trends are pretty good at informing us about what is going to happen. Not perfect, obviously. There are exceptions. And that's what we're rooting for - another big exception.

Winning 93 games with significant injuries is not luck. Those that predict dire results due to the fact that we won a lot of one run games last year need to take into account that until last year, this team didn't know how to win. Until last year, this team expected to lose. Now, all that has changed. Look at the Yankees. They are depending on Jeter, Rivera, Petitte. Those guys aren't just old, they are very old. The Orioles are entering their prime and there are at least ten Oriole players that should improve based on age and experience.

There isn't a single Oriole that should have a drop in performance due to age. That is significant. By not signing overpriced, aging, one dimensional free agents, we have given ourselved the flexibility we need to react to the variables of the upcoming season.

So, 97 wins or bust.

[joeyc]

Is there going to be some kind of fire sale during spring training???

I don't see how at all the team regressed to an < 81 win team. I can see us being an 84-92 win team barring injuries. I think that puts us right in the #2/#3 ranks in the AL East..

We did nothing in the offseason to make the team better, and you are banking on us repeating the luck we had last year. We won't win all of those 1 run games and extra inning games again this year. That's why I think we will be below .500. Toronto loaded up so there is more losses to them, as well

We will end up around 79 wins and we will regress, from last year.

[DrungoHazewood]

Winning 93 games with significant injuries is not luck. Those that predict dire results due to the fact that we won a lot of one run games last year need to take into account that until last year, this team didn't know how to win. Until last year, this team expected to lose. Now, all that has changed. Look at the Yankees. They are depending on Jeter, Rivera, Petitte. Those guys aren't just old, they are very old. The Orioles are entering their prime and there are at least ten Oriole players that should improve based on age and experience.

There isn't a single Oriole that should have a drop in performance due to age. That is significant. By not signing overpriced, aging, one dimensional free agents, we have given ourselved the flexibility we need to react to the variables of the upcoming season.

So, 97 wins or bust.

I wish I shared your optimism, but I think it's just that. I'm not going to sit here and pick apart your post, but there's almost no way a fact-based analysis of the 2013 Baltimore Orioles would suggest they're anything like a 97 win team. Winning 97 this year is about as unlikely as 93 was last year. And last year was a once in a generation lightning strike.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there going to be some kind of fire sale during spring training???

I don't see how at all the team regressed to an < 81 win team. I can see us being an 84-92 win team barring injuries. I think that puts us right in the #2/#3 ranks in the AL East..

You don't need to have a massive turnover of personnel to have a step change in performance. The 2011 Orioles had about 80% of the same players in the same spots as the 2012 Orioles and they won 69 games.

[TiredofLosing20]

I love the optimism going on around here to be honest. When was the last time the O's have done virtually nothing in the offseason and the board was this positive, I mean 97 wins???? It is kinda refreshing...

I do however worry about optimism that goes unfulfilled.

[NewMarketSean]

I think they'll win something like 80-85 wins. I think we'll see some natural progression which does away with the need for all the 1 run games but I also believe that we won't be as lucky in that regard again. Last years team was an 82 win team according to Pythagorean. I think we can improve upon that by 3 games this year.

[brianod]

I wish I shared your optimism, but I think it's just that. I'm not going to sit here and pick apart your post, but there's almost no way a fact-based analysis of the 2013 Baltimore Orioles would suggest they're anything like a 97 win team. Winning 97 this year is about as unlikely as 93 was last year. And last year was a once in a generation lightning strike.

It's optimism with a caveat. I've been watching professional sports closely for over 40 years and I have a feeling that we are going into a special time to be an Orioles fan. I base this on my gut, but I also base this on the fact that we have a young team with many players at or entering their prime. We have a team with a competent GM and a competent manager. We have a team that won 93 games last year that is led by a bunch of guys that like each other and guys that have found out how to win and like the feeling. I don't think we are going back to mediocrity, I think we are going to improve.

The Yankees have one offensive player in his prime. One. They are depending on guys who are way past their prime. Not one or two, about 5-10. The Redsox are reeling. They might improve to .500 or a little over but I don't think they are a threat. The Rays have enough pitching to be a problem but I don't think they have enough money or offense to compete. They are one Longoria injury away from mediocrity. The Blue Jays are great on paper but history is replete with teams that looked great on paper after being built through free agency and radical trades that didn't play as good on the field.

Those that said the Orioles did nothing to improve are wrong. They got a year older and with guys entering their prime all across the board that is significant.

[OFFNY]

.o

D-RAYSO.... 91-71

ORIOLESOoO88-74

BLUE JAYSO 86-76

RED SOX..0O81-81

YANKEESO). 79-83

[TiredofLosing20]

It's optimism with a caveat. I've been watching professional sports closely for over 40 years and I have a feeling that we are going into a special time to be an Orioles fan. I base this on my gut, but I also base this on the fact that we have a young team with many players at or entering their prime. We have a team with a competent GM and a competent manager. We have a team that won 93 games last year that is led by a bunch of guys that like each other and guys that have found out how to win and like the feeling. I don't think we are going back to mediocrity, I think we are going to improve.

The Yankees have one offensive player in his prime. One. They are depending on guys who are way past their prime. Not one or two, about 5-10. The Redsox are reeling. They might improve to .500 or a little over but I don't think they are a threat. The Rays have enough pitching to be a problem but I don't think they have enough money or offense to compete. They are one Longoria injury away from mediocrity. The Blue Jays are great on paper but history is replete with teams that looked great on paper after being built through free agency and radical trades that didn't play as good on the field.

Those that said the Orioles did nothing to improve are wrong. They got a year older and with guys entering their prime all across the board that is significant.

It is even more replete with teams that look mediocre on paper and achieve just that.

I do love the enthusiasm. Don't let us pragmatists rain on your parade! Most of us regression to the mean folks have scarred orange hearts.

I can't wait for those predicting 90+ wins to rub it in our faces.

[DrungoHazewood]

It is even more replete with teams that look mediocre on paper and achieve just that.

I do love the enthusiasm. Don't let us pragmatists rain on your parade! Most of us regression to the mean folks have scarred orange hearts.

I can't wait for those predicting 90+ wins to rub it in our faces.

Nothing would make me happier than for the enthusiastic optimists to be right, and have 10 threads chastising us non-believers.

But while I'll hope for 90+ wins, I'll expect something closer to 80. Every fan and every city knows 50 reasons why the projections underrate their favorite team. My assumption and recollection is that even in the very depths of the 1998-2011 malaise the annual OH projection poll overrated the Orioles by 10+ wins.

Fangraphs does a fan projection for each player every year. It's well documented that this is consistently much more optimistic than the most optimistic algorithm-based system.

[TiredofLosing20]

Nothing would make me happier than for the enthusiastic optimists to be right, and have 10 threads chastising us non-believers.

But while I'll hope for 90+ wins, I'll expect something closer to 80. Every fan and every city knows 50 reasons why the projections underrate their favorite team. My assumption and recollection is that even in the very depths of the 1998-2011 malaise the annual OH projection poll overrated the Orioles by 10+ wins.

Fangraphs does a fan projection for each player every year. It's well documented that this is consistently much more optimistic than the most optimistic algorithm-based system.

Probably because those algorithm based systems don't take into account intangibles such as "learning to win", "team chemistry" etc. These things are not quantifiable but do seem to exist in fan based "algorithms".

I tend to agree with you this team is a .500ish team. But like everyone am hoping for more.

[T. Legend]

Winning 93 games with significant injuries is not luck. Those that predict dire results due to the fact that we won a lot of one run games last year need to take into account that until last year, this team didn't know how to win. Until last year, this team expected to lose. Now, all that has changed. Look at the Yankees. They are depending on Jeter, Rivera, Petitte. Those guys aren't just old, they are very old. The Orioles are entering their prime and there are at least ten Oriole players that should improve based on age and experience.

There isn't a single Oriole that should have a drop in performance due to age. That is significant. By not signing overpriced, aging, one dimensional free agents, we have given ourselved the flexibility we need to react to the variables of the upcoming season.

So, 97 wins or bust.

What does "knowing how to win" mean? How does that help you hit a breaking ball or field a grounder?

[brianod]

What does "knowing how to win" mean? How does that help you hit a breaking ball or field a grounder?

A baseball team is a group of 25 players, a coaching staff and assorted others. When that group wins 93 games, goes into Texas and wins the wild card and then takes the Yankees into game 7, they start to believe in each other. What does that mean? It means that they begin to have confidence in each other. When things get tight, they don't panic. No-one feels like if he doesn't get a hit, the game will be over. A pitcher doesn't feel like he has to be too fine because he knows if he makes a mistake or two, his teammates will bail him out. The thought that if I don't do it, someone else will is a crucial component to all successful teams. Baseball is very hard to play "tight". Basically, those that approach challenges with confidence succeed more then those that don't. Basic human nature.

[Frobby]

It's optimism with a caveat. I've been watching professional sports closely for over 40 years and I have a feeling that we are going into a special time to be an Orioles fan. I base this on my gut, but I also base this on the fact that we have a young team with many players at or entering their prime. We have a team with a competent GM and a competent manager. We have a team that won 93 games last year that is led by a bunch of guys that like each other and guys that have found out how to win and like the feeling. I don't think we are going back to mediocrity, I think we are going to improve.

The Yankees have one offensive player in his prime. One. They are depending on guys who are way past their prime. Not one or two, about 5-10. The Redsox are reeling. They might improve to .500 or a little over but I don't think they are a threat. The Rays have enough pitching to be a problem but I don't think they have enough money or offense to compete. They are one Longoria injury away from mediocrity. The Blue Jays are great on paper but history is replete with teams that looked great on paper after being built through free agency and radical trades that didn't play as good on the field.

Those that said the Orioles did nothing to improve are wrong. They got a year older and with guys entering their prime all across the board that is significant.

I think there's a lot of wisdom in this post. I like the age/experience profile and the culture of this team very much, and I think those factors will be sufficient to keep us from regressing to significantly below .500. What happens beyond that is largely dependent on two unknowable factors:

1. Health, especially with regard to the best players on the team.

2. Whether the starting pitchers who performed well last year can continue to perform well.

If the answers to those two questions are positive, I think we're in the pennant race until the final week and have a shot to make the playoffs again. If the answers are negative, we'll hover around .500 and could even fall a few games short. If the answer to these two questions is a mixed bag, we're probably over .500 but not seriously in contention in September.

There's a lot of uncertainty, but I like the makeup of this team and I'm looking forward to rooting them on.