All purpose NCAA tourney bid thread

[mweb]

Clemson is playing decent so far, they're at least in the game. If they can somehow pull this off it would be great for MD. Highly doubt it though, but playing them tough will help a little.

[mweb]

The Memphis-Louisville game was quite a battle. Very dramatic finish, I wanted Louisville to win to help MD out, but you gotta feel for Washington there.

[Sports Guy]

The Memphis-Louisville game was quite a battle. Very dramatic finish, I wanted Louisville to win to help MD out, but you gotta feel for Washington there.

Yea, that was really heartbreaking for him but it really helps out MD.

Terp fans need to root for UTEP, Pacific and Utah today.

[Krimka]

Buffalo has a RPI of 32, SOS of 95, and they have an 8-8 record vs. the Top 100.

When you compare that with Ohio....RPI 54, SOS 118, yet a 10-5 record vs. the Top 100.

They're two very close teams...each with the same conference record. I'd give the nod to Buffalo over Ohio, but I'm not sure in this instance.

The Utah game will probably be very close. New Mexico is no pushover, and I'd expect them to give the Utes a run for their money. We NEED Utah to win that game, but New Mexico will still be a high bubble team just by reaching the finals. The only thing they really have against them is their horrible SOS (312).

Also, watch out for the GW - St. Joe's game. St. Joe's, if they lose, are by no means a lock for the tourney.

[Krimka]

Well when you compare St. Joe's and GW, they're both fairly close as well. I agree that St. Joe's due to beating GW earlier in the season, finishing higher in the conference, not to mention having a higher RPI and SOS than GW is a better pick for the selection committee for an at-large. But I'm not sure if either would get in over us (although GW did beat us).

Lunardi has GW as one spot higher than us in his "Last 4 Out", but he has ND as his number one....so I don't know how much stock we can put into that. If they take into account conference play and put a HIGH emphasis on SOS than we're a better pick than either St. Joe's or GW. But I agree with you, by looking solely at the numbers St. Joe's is the better pick for the committee.

So let's see.....

1) Root for Utah over New Mexico

2) Root for St. Joe's over George Washington

3) Root for Pacific over Utah State

4) Root for UTEP over Boise State

5) Root for Buffalo over Ohio (?)

I'm assuming that Iowa is officially in, so I doubt losing to Wisconsin would do much to their stock today. Are there any games I'm missing (or wrong on)?

[Nuclear Dish]

OK, here are the two latest opinions I've seen: ESPN from 12:05 AM and Yahoo from 12:10 AM.

Both opinions state that there are 3 available bublle spots, assuming that Pacific doesn't get upset by Utah St.

Yahoo's list, in order of likelihood to get in:

Miami OH

UAB

Buffalo

DePaul

Northern Iowa

Indiana

Maryland

Notre Dame

Saint Joseph's

Wichita State

Holy Cross

Davidson

Vanderbilt

Texas A&M

Virginia Tech

ESPN's list, in no order whatsoever, except that the last two are long-shots:

UAB, DePaul, Notre Dame, Maryland, Buffalo, Miami (OH), Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Saint Joseph's

So, it appears that MD is contending for one of 3 spots against UAB, Depaul, ND, Buffalo, Miami (OH), and Northern Iowa.

Lunardi had Buffalo in earlier today, but they've lost since then (albeit by 1 point in OT when they were up by 19 at one point). Everyone else remained static.

My guess is that Buffalo still gets in (better record vs. RPI Top 100 than MD), and UAB gets in.

I think the final spot comes down to MD, ND, and Miami (OH). And I think ND is the weakest of those.

Miami (OH) has a better RPI (29 vs. 61) and their SOS isn't so bad (47 vs. 12). Their record vs. RPI Top 50 is 3-4, the same as Maryland's, but their record vs. RPI Top 100 is 8-8 (Maryland's is 5-11).

Throw in that Miami is 5-5 in their last 10, while Maryland is 3-7 in theirs, and I honestly think Miami makes the better case.

So, unless this "prestige" BS comes into play, I think right now MD is out.

[sangell2007]

Rightly or wrongly, I think prestige acts as a tiebreaker. If Northern Iowa and Buffalo are two teams that we're in very close competition with, I think the selection committee would take us. Miami (OH) I think gets in, so that leaves two more spots. My guess is UAB and us...although to be fair I know very little about UAB. I just think our head-and-shoulders advantage in terms of RPI and SOS, combined with name prestige and potential, will be enough to get us one of these three spots.

[Nuclear Dish]

Rightly or wrongly, I think prestige acts as a tiebreaker. If Northern Iowa and Buffalo are two teams that we're in very close competition with, I think the selection committee would take us. Miami (OH) I think gets in, so that leaves two more spots. My guess is UAB and us...although to be fair I know very little about UAB. I just think our head-and-shoulders advantage in terms of RPI and SOS, combined with name prestige and potential, will be enough to get us one of these three spots.

Sam, I think Buffalo's got an even better case than Miami (OH). They are 9-1 in their past 10 games, missed an automatic bid by the slightest of margins, and 27th in overall RPI. They are 8-8 vs. RPI Top 100. Their only soft spot is that they are 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50.

[sangell2007]

Sam, I think Buffalo's got an even better case than Miami (OH). They are 9-1 in their past 10 games, missed an automatic bid by the slightest of margins, and 27th in overall RPI. They are 8-8 vs. RPI Top 100. Their only soft spot is that they are 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50.

OK, well I could see them switched. I didn't know a thing about Buffalo before tonight. But the argument still holds with the names in different places. Not to mention the fact that if the MAC gets 3 bids, I quit . So one takes out the other. If Buffalo is in, then Miami (OH) is out.

[Krimka]

The Yahoo rankings, to me, look like crap, in all honesty. Indiana is definitely out. The ESPN rankings are far more accurate. If you disregard the two long shots (Wichita State and St. Joe's) then it's really down to 7 teams for 3 spots.

UAB RPI 59 SOS 118

DePaul RPI 73 SOS 116

Notre Dame RPI 92 SOS 109

Maryland RPI 61 SOS 12

Buffalo RPI 27 SOS 89

Miami (OH) RPI 29 SOS 47

Northern Iowa RPI 38 SOS 58

Each team has their faults, and could easily be left off the list.

When you look solely at SOS, Maryland is head and shoulders above all the other teams, followed by Miami (OH) and Northern Iowa.

If you only look at RPI, then you have Miami (OH), Buffalo and Northern Iowa taking up those last 3 spots.

However, if you look at the strength of the conferences, then you have to rank the 3 teams as Maryland, Notre Dame, and UAB, who had a very similar record to DePaul yet beat them twice.

Maryland and Notre Dame are hurt by their late collapses, and teams such as UAB and Buffalo went far in their respective conference tournaments.

I think when you group all of them, and look at all of the numbers, key wins and close losses, and weigh who was hot down the stretch vs who was cold, the top 3 IMO are UAB, Buffalo and UMD.

Reasons for this? Neither Northern Iowa nor Miami (OH) belong to a top conference, and despite their high RPIs, both have lost early in their respective conferences. Notre Dame has similar issues, and with a very high RPI and SOS, they're out. Finally, DePaul lost fairly early in their conference, and have very similar stats to UAB, except UAB has beaten them twice, and recently their RPI has risen.

UAB has a solid conference record, and has been hot recently. The same can be said for Buffalo, although the strength of their conference could hurt them. Finally, with MD's SOS, RPI and the strength of the ACC, not to mention their past record, they barely make it into the final spot.

But all of this is moot if Pacific loses, in that case MD has NO SHOT.

[MurphDogg]

Yeah, well, from what I saw tonight, Utah or Pacific do not deserve to get in they can't even beat NM or Utah State.

Oh well, I hope Gary enjoys the NIT.

GOod night

So Pacific breaks it's 22 game winning streak and shouldn't get in... but MD, they win 41% of their ACC games and should dance... Any team can win on any given night, and Pacific deserves it more because of the season they have had...

[Sports Guy]

Buffalo has like 8 wins vs RPI top 100.

They should be in.

MD is in guys. I would be shocked if they weren't and they will likely be a 12 or 13 seed.

[mweb]

I doubt that MD gets in with Pacific losing. If they do, they get the last spot. One thing in our favor is that like others have said, the MAC will not get 3 teams in.

[Nuclear Dish]

Buffalo has like 8 wins vs RPI top 100.

They should be in.

MD is in guys. I would be shocked if they weren't and they will likely be a 12 or 13 seed.

SG, I'll bet you they're out.

[Sports Guy]

SG, I'll bet you they're out.

Hey trust me, i do not think they deserve to be in. I think their poor road record, lack of big wins, below 500 conference record and the way they ended the season are all reasons enough to leave them out.

But let me tell you something...No way does Miami (OH) get in over MD. It just is not happening. I would even be surprised if Buffalo gets in and MD does not.