Baseball America's Top 10 for O's

[Frobby]

There are a few other things on BA's lists I found interesting:

1. Matt Angle projected as the regular CF in 2011.

2. Luis Hernandez projected as the regular SS in 2011.

3. Liz and Albers in the 2011 rotation, no sign of DCab, Olson, Penn or Patton.

4. Ray projected as the 2011 closer.

5. 3 of Orioles' last 10 top prospects completely out of baseball now, and only 3 (Bedard, Loewen, Markakis) are in the majors.

6. 3 of Orioles last 10 top picks completely out of baseball now, and only two (Loewen and Markakis) have ever played an inning in the majors.

For items 1 and 2, I'd assume Angle and Hernandez are projected simply because there isn't an obvious alternative ahead of them in the system.

[TakebackOPACY]

Who is he?

He's a 23-yr old college outfielder drafted in the 36th round of the 2007 draft. Played in the Gulf Coast League this year.

Lead Prairie View A&M to an NCAA tourney birth. After having 56 steals in his Junior season, he was the pre-season pick for SWAC Player of the Year in 2007. Although he didn't do as well, he was the player of the tournament in the SWAC tourney that locked up their automatic birth to the NCAA tourney.

Here's something interesting: The O's had him switch hit in the GCL even though he didn't switch hit in college.

He runs a 60-yd dash in 6.3 seconds.

From Baseball Cube, here were his stats in his time at Prairie View and his year in the GCL:

[tywright]

For the sake of comparison, here is Goldstein's (BP) take on the O's:

Five-Star Prospects

1. Matt Wieters, C

Four-Star Prospects

2. Chorye Spoone, RHP

3. Radhames Liz, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

4. Jake Arrieta, RHP

5. Nolan Reimold, OF

6. Billy Rowell, 3B

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP

Two-Star Prospects

8. Garrett Olson, LHP

9. Pedro Beato, RHP

10. David Hernandez, RHP

11. James Hoey, RHP

No Snyder in the top 10, but he agrees that Rowell is behind Reimold. He is a lot more favorable of Spoone too.

[JohnD]

If I had to guess, I think they might try Rowell in the OF before he moves to 1B, if he gets moved away from 3B. He's got a good arm, is athletic enough, and they think he's capable.

That said, I was told he'd be focusing a lot more on his defense this off-season, more than he ever has in the past, and that he wants to be a 3B and knows he has to do more than just hit to get where he wants to go. I think this season at Frederick would tell a lot about where he'll play in the field someday.

And while I'm talking about moves, the one labeled most athletic may find himself on a corner next season at Delmarva. If and which corner is still undetermined. But perhaps it'd be somewhere on the left side, if it happens.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, what's your take on Rowell if he has to move to 1B?

How much does that diminish his prospect value than if he can play 3B?

I think the move if it occurs does hurt his status a bit, but his bat remains the key to his status overall. If he's going to hit like the Orioles believe he'll hit, his bat will play anywhere.

The key thing here is how will his bat play? If he can't hit lefties in low-A ball and his plate discipline doesn't improve, I think there are some reasons to be concerned.

He's got a ton of talent so it's hard to get too down on him after a one mediocre at best minor league season.

Snyder had a nice little recovery last year and his HWL campaign was impressive, so it doesn't pay to give up on these top draft picks too early.

At the same time, it's not hard to understand why some would drop Rowell's status a bit after last season. Hopefully he'll prove those naysayers wrong next season.

[rammyfanny]

Well, BA divides it up into "background", "strengths", "weaknesses", and "Future". Background and future aren't really important so i'll give you a portion of the strengths and weaknesses. Enjoy.

1. Matt Wieters

Strengths:

Wieters offers plus tools both at the plate and behind it, yet the Orioles might be most excited about his intangibles. He's an impressive person, the type who looks like he can lead not only a pitching staff but a clubhouse. He was the most polished offensive player in the 2007 draft class, with plus bat speed and a line-drive approach to all fields. He has a good idea at the plate and shows both discipline and pitch recognition. A switch-hitter, his swing is shorter from the right side and offers more power from the left. And even on days when his bat's not producing, he'll help his club with his catching. One scout said Wieters was the best defensive catcher he had seen since Charles Johnson

Weaknesses:

Pitchers constantly worked away from Wieters in college, and he developed a bad habit of stepping toward the plate to cover the outer half, which short-circuits his power a bit and leaves him vulnerable to inside pitches. The Orioles worked with him to get his lower half in better position and have him step toward the pitcher to free his swing up inside, and they expect he'll be able to make that adjustment.

2. Liz:

Strengths:

Liz now looks like he has the stamina and pitches to work at the front of a major league rotation. His fastball still clocks in at 94-97 mph with life, and he has a curveball and changeup that are plus pitches when he commands them inconsistently.

Weaknesses:

The keys for Liz are commanding his fastball in the strike zone and using his other two pitches regularly. When he falls behind and starts leaning too much on his heater, it tends to drift up in the zone and he gets hammered around.

3. Patton:

Strengths:

Patton enhances his solid stuff with outstanding command. He can touch 94 mph with his four-seam fastball and gets good sink on a two-seamer that sits in the high 80s.

They also say he has a decent slider and a fading change.

Weaknesses: Minor shoulder issues. Will dip down in delivery to offer a different look to hitters, but that makes his stuff straighten out. Likes to go inside but can't afford to miss or he'll get hit.

4.Reimold:

Strengths:

His bat speed and the leverage in his swing allow him to drive the ball out to any part of the park, and he should be a good hitter for average as well. He has the best outfield arm in the system

Weaknesses:

Health, and a few minor loops in his swing.

5.Rowell:

Strengths:

Rowell has a big frame and a sweet lefthanded swing, and the Orioles still have no doubt it will add up to a power hitter in the middle of their lineup within a few seasons.

Good bat speed as well.

Weaknesses:

Defense, approach against lefties.

7. Arrieta:

Arrieta's fastball has run from 91-95 mph in the past, though he lost some velocity and life during the college season. His heater was better in the Arizona Fall League, though still not at its best.

Also has good bite on slider.

Weaknesses:

Mechanical problems that you guys believe are minor.

8. Spoone

Strengths:

Spoone always has had a live fastball, sitting at 93-95 mph, and an outstanding curveball that has become much more consistent. His changeup also is getting better

Weaknesses:

Command (consistent)

There were the main guys I thought you'd guys would be interested in. Hopefully what I posted was alright as they were snippets, and if it isn't for some reason, mods can feel free to do whatever with it. I left a couple guys off because i'm lazy, but let me know if there's anyone else you really want to see.

[hoosiers]

Thanks, Tony. I'm not down much on Rowell - especially after realizing he was younger than some 200y first rounders. It would be nice if Rowell was healthy and produced like the first HS bat taken in the 06 draft. There are some minor concerns regarding injury and hitting LHPs that, as you note, should knock his prospect status a little.

Glad to see Snyder's recovery. I felt like his lone advocate during stretches here last year.

[tywright]

And while I'm talking about moves, the one labeled most athletic may find himself on a corner next season at Delmarva. If and which corner is still undetermined. But perhaps it'd be somewhere on the left side, if it happens.

Where will Henson play next year, since he is the most athletic? Delmarva or Frederick?

[odogs101]

In regards to the 2011 projected, don't get too hung up on it. They have mentioned in almost every team chat that it is more a fun thing than trying to acurately project it. They only use players that are currently on the team or in the system regardless of whether the player will most likely be traded(Bedard) or a better replacement brought in(L. Hernandez).

Also looks like BA may be one of the first to finally admit that Liz can be a front of the rotation starter and not just destined for relief.

[sector7g]

They're pretty high on Beato too. Interesting to hear they made him pitch all year without his best off speed pitch to concentrate on his weaker ones. It could be a very interesting year for him, certainly having someone like that at No.9 isn't too shabby.

Beato's stuff compares with that of anyone in the system

Beato will take the move up to high Class A this season, and he should be more effective with the cutter back in his arsenal. He'll need some time to develop but should be worth the wait.

[Frobby]

They're pretty high on Beato too. Interesting to hear they made him pitch all year without his best off speed pitch to concentrate on his weaker ones. It could be a very interesting year for him, certainly having someone like that at No.9 isn't too shabby.

I recall the OH review of Beato made the same point about his cutter.

[PoorMike]

And why isn't Olson on the list? He still qualifies as a prospect since he didn't pitch over 50 IP.

BA ranks these guys based on upside, so why is Reimold ahead of Rowell? I just don't see Reimold's ceiling being better than Rowell's.

He must have simply dropped out of the top 10. Not impossible to believe.

[TheBee]

thanks, RammyFanny:)

[sector7g]

Couple of interesting quotes from the BA chat....

Q: Eric from Elk Grove asks:

I was happy to see your rosy outlook for the electric Radhames Liz. Do you have anything more to add on why we should believe?

A: Will Lingo: I think the main thing that has impressed me in the last couple of years has been how definitively Liz has stepped forward as a starter. He seemed like a cinch to be a reliever a couple of years ago, but he improved all his pitches and has made a believer of me. Now a move to the bullpen isn't really discussed very much, though obviously it's there as a fallback position. A 23-year-old getting knocked around in his first big league experience doesn't worry me that much. I think he'll do much better the next time around.

Are we underrating Liz or is everyone else overrating him?

Q: Nick from New York asks:

Where would you estimate the Orioles's system ranks overall?

A: Will Lingo: The Orioles are solidly in the middle of the talent rankings now, with good depth but not enough impact players like Wieters.

Pretty much where most of us would have expected.

Q: Joe R. from Newport News, VA asks:

Garrett Olson seems to be virtually identical to Troy Patton -- a left-hander, virtually certain to top out as a #3 starter -- yet Patton ranks #3 while Olson is nowhere to be found. Did Olson's limited major league action cause him to drop that much?

A: Will Lingo: All of Patton's pitches probably grade out a little better than Olson's, and while the sample size is very small, he didn't look overmatched in the big leagues, while Olson did. He's also a full two years younger than Olson. And while Patton does have the ceiling of a No. 3 starter, he's a much better bet to reach that ceiling, I think. But you're right, there's not a whole lot of difference between their profiles. And Olson is just off the top 10 list, so it's not like we've given up on him.

[Frobby]

Couple of interesting quotes from the BA chat.....

Thanks for these. I'm very encouraged by the positive review of Patton. I liked the trade when we made it, and I like it even better now.