Christian Walker and Henry Urrutia upside

[jabba72]

If AA stats arent accurate of his true hitting ability, should Urrutia move to AAA first? .372 average is pretty good in your first 86 PA's. That said the Orioles are not in a rush for his offense. They have OF depth and the matchups they are comfortable with in Pierce, Reimold and Dickerson.

[Ruzious]

Yes, in a league that's the rough equivalent of a US indy league. The translation work I've seen on Cuba pegs it in the Sally/Midwest league in overall quality, just with a wider spread in talent - some MLB players sprinkled in among a lot of guys who wouldn't even be in affiliated ball here.

The 1 year I've seen stats for him - 2009/2010, he hit .397/.461/.597 in 305 at bats - with 32 walks vs 23 SO's. Even if that's Sally League level competition at age 22/23, that's impressive.

[atomic]

It's not obvious that he should be in the majors. Manny was 7 years younger than Urrutia is now. If you sent Reimold or Pearce to Bowie I'd expect both of them would post 1.000 OPSes. Do you remember Lou Montanez? The same guy who has a .586 MLB OPS also hit .335 with a .986 OPS at Bowie at the age of 26.

What's obvious is that the guys who scout Urrutia think he still has some things to work on and that he's not quite to the point where you're releasing guys on the MLB roster to make space for him. Good organizations don't make lasting decisions based on 100 PAs, especially not on 100 AA PAs from a 26-year-old.

Whatever dude. This guy played in Cuba and hit for a higher average in Cuba than Cespedes. And Cespedes didn't play in AA at all. We aren't talking about some journeyman minor leaguer. This guys was signed to play in the bigs. There is a big difference between .372 and .335 and Urrutia is on an upward spiral.

And guess what Lou Montanez was brought up to the bigs that year and given a chance.

I don't get the age thing at all. Manny wasn't hitting .335 he was hitting what? .260. So age means he has a chance to improve in the minors. Urrutia is big league material. He was a star in Cuba. He hasn't played in a couple of years and he destroying minor league pitching.

[DrungoHazewood]

Whatever dude. This guy played in Cuba and hit for a higher average in Cuba than Cespedes. And Cespedes didn't play in AA at all. We aren't talking about some journeyman minor leaguer. This guys was signed to play in the bigs. There is a big difference between .372 and .335 and Urrutia is on an upward spiral.

And guess what Lou Montanez was brought up to the bigs that year and given a chance.

I don't get the age thing at all. Manny wasn't hitting .335 he was hitting what? .260. So age means he has a chance to improve in the minors. Urrutia is big league material. He was a star in Cuba. He hasn't played in a couple of years and he destroying minor league pitching.

Seems like the cream of the crop in Cuba, say their national team, has a pretty good track record of success in pro ball. Who do we have so far? Viciedo and Alexei Ramirez on the White Sox. Kendry Morales on the Mariners. Cespedes on Oakland. Yunel Escobar on the Rays. Aroldis Chapman on the Reds. Adainy Hechevarra on the Marlins. Not to mention Yasel Puig signed to a big contact by the Dodgers and Jose Iglesias in the minors for the Red Sox. These are just the guys who have defected. Pretty safe to say there are some ML quality guys still in Cuba. I think if you are among the best players in Cuba, you have a pretty good chance of playing ML ball. I'm not sure which highly regarded Cubans have failed but it seems as though most have succeeded to some degree or another.

Maybe you're right, maybe he's ready to show up in OPACY and start raking. All I'm saying is that I'd be cautious and conservative in my projections. Why was Urrutia not seen as a highly prized defector? The Orioles got him for about 1/40th the cost of Cespedes. I'm curious as to why the O's got him at such a discount if he outplayed Cespedes.

If you do a bb-ref search for everyone who was born in Cuba and played in the majors since 1990 you get 23 position players. 16 of the 23 have career values of 2 rWAR or less. Four are at 10 or higher, but that includes Raffy and Jose Canseco who came to the states long before playing in the Cuban League. I think Cubans succeed at about the same rate as everyone else.

[Hallas]

Yes, in a league that's the rough equivalent of a US indy league. The translation work I've seen on Cuba pegs it in the Sally/Midwest league in overall quality, just with a wider spread in talent - some MLB players sprinkled in among a lot of guys who wouldn't even be in affiliated ball here.

That's a bit of an exaggeration.

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=3008

According to Dave Cameron, Cuba is basically like hi-A, while indy leagues are somewhere between rookie/short season leagues and low-A. So the fact that he's producing in AA shouldn't be a huge surprise, since he raked in a league that was only one level of competition lower.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's a bit of an exaggeration.

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=3008

According to Dave Cameron, Cuba is basically like hi-A, while indy leagues are somewhere between rookie/short season leagues and low-A. So the fact that he's producing in AA shouldn't be a huge surprise, since he raked in a league that was only one level of competition lower.

I wasn't exaggerating when I said the data I'd seen compared the Cuban League to low-A. Clay Davenport's work, which is now probably five years old, pegged it there. And my indy league comp is due to the fact there's a spread in talent unlike anything you'd see in an affiliated league - you have guys like Cespedes and Urrutia playing alongside what have to be guys who'd be in places like the Pecos League or the Frontier League or not playing at all in the US. Basically the floor and the ceiling in Cuban League talent is much lower and higher than any affiliated US minor league. In other words, kind of a poor man's Japanese League.

[Hallas]

I wasn't exaggerating when I said the data I'd seen compared the Cuban League to low-A. Clay Davenport's work, which is now probably five years old, pegged it there. And my indy league comp is due to the fact there's a spread in talent unlike anything you'd see in an affiliated league - you have guys like Cespedes and Urrutia playing alongside what have to be guys who'd be in places like the Pecos League or the Frontier League or not playing at all in the US. Basically the floor and the ceiling in Cuban League talent is much lower and higher than any affiliated US minor league. In other words, kind of a poor man's Japanese League.

I understand that you weren't exaggerating, but I think that using an equivalency based on 5-year-old data is problematic since 5 years ago there were significantly fewer data points to develop equivalencies, given the recent surge of defections. Also, the WBC provides additional data points for more Cuban players, and a projection from 2007 or 2008 would have only included 1 WBC. I don't think it's a stretch to think that, with the additional data, a more accurate MLE would put the Cuban league closer to hi-A.

[eb45]

Maybe you're right, maybe he's ready to show up in OPACY and start raking. All I'm saying is that I'd be cautious and conservative in my projections. Why was Urrutia not seen as a highly prized defector? The Orioles got him for about 1/40th the cost of Cespedes. I'm curious as to why the O's got him at such a discount if he outplayed Cespedes.

I think a big part of it was not having played in about two years, and there being (justifiably) questions about whether his skill set would hold up, plus I'd imagine what buzz there might have been around the time of his first defection attempt died down when it failed, and when he didn't play baseball afterwards before defecting, teams probably lost some interest.

The other parts of it probably had to do with age and lack of power for a corner outfielder. Which I mean, fine, but I think it's fair to trust Fred Ferreira's analysis as well.

Also I seem to recall just about everyone describing the signing as very good value.

[Frobby]

Whatever dude. This guy played in Cuba and hit for a higher average in Cuba than Cespedes. And Cespedes didn't play in AA at all. We aren't talking about some journeyman minor leaguer. This guys was signed to play in the bigs. There is a big difference between .372 and .335 and Urrutia is on an upward spiral.

And guess what Lou Montanez was brought up to the bigs that year and given a chance.

I don't get the age thing at all. Manny wasn't hitting .335 he was hitting what? .260. So age means he has a chance to improve in the minors. Urrutia is big league material. He was a star in Cuba. He hasn't played in a couple of years and he destroying minor league pitching.

Do you think there's a reason why Cespedes signed for $40 mm and Urrutia signed for $778,000? Or did the scouts not read the Cuban batting statistics?

Look, I'm bullish on Urrutia. Maybe in the second half of this year he'll give us a boost like McLouth did last year. Maybe he'll be better than his contract implies. But the collective minds of MLB didn't value him at even 10% of Cespedes' value, and only a small fraction of Soler's. The scouting reports I've seen say 4th outfielder. Those reports could turn out to be wrong, but let's not go nuts on this guy just yet. If he's hitting .372 on July 1, let's talk.

[hoosiers]

Someone can start a separate thread if they want ... Urrutia and Walker are simply leading a multi-player hitting brigade below AAA the likes of which we haven't seen in a while - especially in the last 10 games.

Walker, Urrutia, Avery, Marin, Balog and Delmonico - hitters on fire.

[Frobby]

Someone can start a separate thread if they want ... Urrutia and Walker are simply leading a multi-player hitting brigade below AAA the likes of which we haven't seen in a while - especially in the last 10 games.

Walker, Urrutia, Avery, Marin, Balog and Delmonico - hitters on fire.

Just started a thread about the MiL bats tonight - wow! I hadn't seen this post while I was writing that OP but we're on the same wavelength. I'm really happy with the way Walker is handling A+ pitching so far. Delmonico shows no adverse affects from the time he missed. Urrutia has hit from the minute they let him on the field. And everyone in Norfolk is crushing the ball. It's fun!

[jabba72]

Just started a thread about the MiL bats tonight - wow! I hadn't seen this post while I was writing that OP but we're on the same wavelength. I'm really happy with the way Walker is handling A+ pitching so far. Delmonico shows no adverse affects from the time he missed. Urrutia has hit from the minute they let him on the field. And everyone in Norfolk is crushing the ball. It's fun!

Makes you wonder if these are the guys Duquette thinks can fetch a TOR Starter.

[atomic]

Do you think there's a reason why Cespedes signed for $40 mm and Urrutia signed for $778,000? Or did the scouts not read the Cuban batting statistics?

Look, I'm bullish on Urrutia. Maybe in the second half of this year he'll give us a boost like McLouth did last year. Maybe he'll be better than his contract implies. But the collective minds of MLB didn't value him at even 10% of Cespedes' value, and only a small fraction of Soler's. The scouting reports I've seen say 4th outfielder. Those reports could turn out to be wrong, but let's not go nuts on this guy just yet. If he's hitting .372 on July 1, let's talk.

He is now hitting .378. I hope he is a lot better than Mcclouth. Machado has only been hitting .330 for 6 weeks and people are claiming he is our best player.

[LayzieDES]

He is now hitting .378. I hope he is a lot better than Mcclouth. Machado has only been hitting .330 for 6 weeks and people are claiming he is our best player.

McLouth was an All Star & Gold Glover at the same age.

[Frobby]

He is now hitting .378. I hope he is a lot better than Mcclouth. Machado has only been hitting .330 for 6 weeks and people are claiming he is our best player.

I think people are probably a little overly optimistic about Manny at the moment. But there are several differences between his situations and Urrutia's. Manny was no. 3 overall pick, signed for about $6 mm even though no other team could bid on him, and has now played 91 major league games. I don't know if he can maintain his current offensive numbers, but his defense alone makes him very valuable, and his age suggests he will get better and better. There's every earmark of srardom.

If Urrutia was as good as McLouth was last year for us, that would be a huge win for us. Do I hope he'll be even better than that? Sure. But it will take a lot more than 20-25 games in AA for me to expect that.