Chris Tillman - O's Ace

[isestrex]

I still think Tillman can be a number one guy and if he throws 16 or 17-5 for another two seasons, he will be. And certainly Gausman and Bundy could be..but shoulda, woulda, coulda don't make aces.

To say "number one guy" is comparing him, in my book, to Verlander, Kershaw, Wainwright, Samardzija, Cueto, Price, Weaver etc....

Tillman isn't in that class, nor will he ever be. But that's ok... a #2 is a very fine ceiling for a pitcher.

[crissfan172]

It's time to acknowledge what Chris Tillman has done over the last year.

On July 4th 2012, Tillman was recalled to make his first start of 2012. In the last year Chris has gone 16-5 with a 3.26 ERA over 29 starts. He still will probably make 3 more starts before the full year is up.

Gary Thorne pointed out that Tillman has the third most wins in that period in the AL behind Verlander and Scherzer of the Tigers.

Tillman has become the stabilizing force in the O's rotation and I think Ace status is appropriate at this point.

What do you think?

The stat I want to see is IP. Without 200+ IP, an ace he is not.

EDIT: Apparently he had 168.1 IP. Definitely not ace material, but he's a very good #3. As he gets older, hopefully he becomes a little more pitch efficient, and we'll see an even better pitcher.

[wildcard]

The stat I want to see is IP. Without 200+ IP, an ace he is not.

EDIT: Apparently he had 168.1 IP. Definitely not ace material, but he's a very good #3. As he gets older, hopefully he becomes a little more pitch efficient, and we'll see an even better pitcher.

Tillman is on a 196 inning pace right now.

[mdbdotcom]

As with when Chen or Gonzalez is on the mound, I feel confident when Tillman pitches. If Bundy and Gausman live up to their potential in a year or two, the O's will have a scary good rotation. It won't matter which one is the ace.

[calmunderfire]

To say "number one guy" is comparing him, in my book, to Verlander, Kershaw, Wainwright, Samardzija, Cueto, Price, Weaver etc....

Tillman isn't in that class, nor will he ever be. But that's ok... a #2 is a very fine ceiling for a pitcher.

That's how I feel. If you are an ace you go can stack up against cy youngs.

[ChrisP]

Tough crowd...I'm sure the Yankee fans would love to have him over everyone except CC.

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[El Gordo]

Although you don't need one to win these days. See Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles 2012 and 2013.

I don't recall seeing either of those teams in the WS last year.

[Spy Fox]

Tillman has given us a "quality start" in 9 of his last 11 outings. My only reservation about him, as others have noted, is his tendency to run high pitch counts and not get really deep into games. Kind of like the guy we traded to get Tillman, though I don't think Tillman is as good -- yet -- as 2006-07 Bedard was once he got on a roll.

Tillman's combined ERA in '12/'13 (29 GS) is actually .21 runs better than Bedard's from '06/'07 (61 GS), but it's in a friendlier run environment for pitchers. I think Tillman has a ways to go until he is as impressive as Erik was in those years, as his '07 season in particular was truly dominant. He led the AL in H/9 and led MLB in K/9 that year, and Tillman has never achieved that level of control over hitters. It's encouraging that we can make any kind of comparison, however.

(Factoid I learned while researching for this post, in 2007 our very own Daniel Cabrera led MLB in most losses, most BB, and most ER. Ouch.)

[Il BuonO]

The stat I want to see is IP. Without 200+ IP, an ace he is not.

EDIT: Apparently he had 168.1 IP. Definitely not ace material, but he's a very good #3. As he gets older, hopefully he becomes a little more pitch efficient, and we'll see an even better pitcher.

He had 178.2 between the Orioles and the minors last year. Major league average was 180 and above that mark there are many pitchers I would NOT call an ace. Jason Vargas, Justin Masterson, CJ Wilson, and Jon Lester last year were all above 200 innings pitched and below average in ERA+. Tillman had a 143 ERA+ last year. If he pitches to anywhere within 125+ (he's at 115+ right now) I'll take it. As wc mentioned he's on pace for a tick under 200 innings.

[crissfan172]

He had 178.2 between the Orioles and the minors last year. Major league average was 180 and above that mark there are many pitchers I would NOT call an ace. Jason Vargas, Justin Masterson, CJ Wilson, and Jon Lester last year were all above 200 innings pitched and below average in ERA+. Tillman had a 143 ERA+ last year. If he pitches to anywhere within 125+ (he's at 115+ right now) I'll take it. As wc mentioned he's on pace for a tick under 200 innings.

IMO...I rate AL pitchers like this:

#1 gives 210+ IP with a sub-3.30 ERA

#2 gives 200+ IP with a 3.30-3.60 ERA.

#3 gives 180+ IP with a 3.60-4.00 ERA

#4 should have a 4.00-4.50 ERA

#5 should have a 4.50-5.00 ERA

Anything worse than that shouldn't be in the rotation.

Personally, I think Tillman's ceiling is a #2, but right now I have him as a very good #3. I don't know if there is more of a consensus way to rank pitchers, but this is usually how I view them.

Oh...and I swear I didn't know Tillman's current ERA was 3.61 when I made the ceiling for #2's 3.60. :laughlol:

[Crazysilver03]

Tough crowd...I'm sure the Yankee fans would love to have him over everyone except CC.

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Doubtful. Kuroda is flat out filthy.

[Crazysilver03]

To say "number one guy" is comparing him, in my book, to Verlander, Kershaw, Wainwright, Samardzija, Cueto, Price, Weaver etc....

Tillman isn't in that class, nor will he ever be. But that's ok... a #2 is a very fine ceiling for a pitcher.

I would put Cueto and Samardzija in the same category as everyone else.

[Frobby]

IMO...I rate AL pitchers like this:

#1 gives 210+ IP with a sub-3.30 ERA

#2 gives 200+ IP with a 3.30-3.60 ERA.

#3 gives 180+ IP with a 3.60-4.00 ERA

#4 should have a 4.00-4.50 ERA

#5 should have a 4.50-5.00 ERA

Anything worse than that shouldn't be in the rotation.

Personally, I think Tillman's ceiling is a #2, but right now I have him as a very good #3. I don't know if there is more of a consensus way to rank pitchers, but this is usually how I view them.

Oh...and I swear I didn't know Tillman's current ERA was 3.61 when I made the ceiling for #2's 3.60. :laughlol:

Your standards simply don't square with the real world. There were only 4 pitchers in the entire AL last year who met your criteria for a no. 1, four more who met your criteria for a no. 2, and eight more who met your criteria for a no. 3. In a 14-team league only 16 pitchers met your criteria for the top three spots in the rotation. Do the math!

[crissfan172]

Your standards simply don't square with the real world. There were only 4 pitchers in the entire AL last year who met your criteria for a no. 1, four more who met your criteria for a no. 2, and eight more who met your criteria for a no. 3. In a 14-team league only 16 pitchers met your criteria for the top three spots in the rotation. Do the math!

I probably should have made standards that used IP/GS rather than IP since health can play a real factor in that. Plus, there has to be some overlaps in the ERA's and IP to really make the list more accurate. For example, Hellickson had a 3.10 ERA but only 177 IP. So in the quick ratings I did, he doesn't show up in any of the categories.

These are really just a rough estimate of what I think each slot should give you if they make 32 starts. Even so, I probably put the IP slightly too high. I think the ERA's are fairly accurate, though it's difficult to really gauge that since only 36 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last year. If you divide them into 5 different groups, the ERA ranges you get would be:

#1: 2.56 - 3.29

#2: 3.32 - 3.74

#3: 3.81 - 4.23

#4: 4.29 - 4.82

#5: 4.85 - 5.77

So...obviously the further you get from your aces, the more my standards differ from reality, but that's kind of what you expect since #5's are rarely pitchers that should really be starting in the big leagues.

All in all, the standards I made are higher than reality, but they're not that far off. As I said, though, the real problem is that there are players that overlap different categories. The numbers could definitely be refined, but I was just making a quick rating system off the cuff, so I'm not overly upset with it.

[Aristotelian]

Here is Chris Tillman vs Top 10 in pitching WAR. Tillman is #88, Hammel is best on the O's this year at #87 (Gonz and Wei-Yin are hurt by injuries). Include 2012 and Chen is our best in WAR. Best pitcher on our staff right now? I can buy that. But it is by a matter of degrees, not tiers, and the MLB Top 10 blow him away.

W/L K/9 K/BB ERA WAR

1 Adam WainwrighCardinals

10-3 8.48 0.79 2.18 4.0

2 Matt Harvey Mets

5-1 9.46 1.86 2.04 3.3

3 Felix Hernandez Mariners

8-4 9.46 1.72 2.32 3.2

4 Anibal Sanchez Tigers

6-5 11.13 2.53 2.76 3.1

5 Cliff Lee Phillies

8-2 7.83 1.50 2.55 3.0

6 Justin Verlander Tigers

8-4 10.45 2.90 3.41 3.0

7 Yu Darvish Rangers

7-2 11.99 2.74 2.64 2.9

8 Max Scherzer Tigers

9-0 10.56 2.19 3.19 2.9

9 Clay Buchholz Red Sox

9-0 8.64 3.09 1.71 2.9

10 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers

5-4 8.72 2.60 1.84 2.8

88 Chris Tillman Orioles

7-2 7.43 3.17 3.61 0.3