BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Frobby]

Ugh, what a lousy week. Blue Jays went 4-1, Astros and Rangers went 5-2, Royals went 4-2, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Twins and Indians went 4-3, White Sox and Angels went 3-4, Mariners went 2-4, and the Baltimore Orioles went 2-5.

Through 8/23/15

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

NYY 68-55 89-73 91.2% 47.9%

TOR 69-55 90-72 93.5% 38.2%

BAL 62-61 80-82 12.9% 00.6%

TBR 62-62 82-80 20.6% 01.0%

BOS 56-68 74-88 00.1% 00.0%

KCR 75-48 95-67 100.0% 99.9%

MIN 63-61 80-82 10.7% 00.0%

DET 59-64 78-84 03.6% 00.0%

CWS 58-64 77-85 01.7% 00.0%

CLE 58-65 79-83 04.5% 00.0%

HOU 69-56 89-73 94.9% 85.6%

TEX 64-59 83-79 36.2% 08.6%

LAA 63-61 832-80 23.2% 05.7%

SEA 57-67 75-87 00.5% 00.1%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles' snapshot:

8/09: 56-54 81-81 19.9% 03.3%

8/16: 60-56 83-79 33.0% 04.3% (4-2)

8/23: 62-61 80-82 12.9% 00.6% (2-5)

What a terrible week this turned out to be, after such a promising start. Now on to a very tough week on the road.

[Frobby]

I don't have the stomach to do the whole playoff odds report this week. It suffices to say that the Orioles' 1-6 week has reduced their playoff chances to very close to zero.

Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

8/09: 56-54 81-81 19.9% 03.3%

8/16: 60-56 83-79 33.0% 04.3% (4-2)

8/23: 62-61 80-82 12.9% 00.6% (2-5)

8/30: 63-67 78-84 01.6% 00.1% (1-6)

[Stotle]

This is a depressing page to flip through.

[Aristotelian]

8/30: 63-67 78-84 01.6% 00.1% (1-6)

So you are saying we have a chance?

[Frobby]

Time for the annual resuscitation of this thread. Here are the current odds, omitting all the teams who are .500 or worse:

Through 7/31/16

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

TOR 59-46 89-73 77.8% 43.2%

BOS 57-46 89-73 71.8% 36.2%

CLE 60-42 94-68 97.4% 90.2%

DET 56-48 86-76 47.3% 09.3%

TEX 62-44 90-72 84.5% 73.8%

HOU 55-49 85-77 38.7% 16.2%

SEA 52-50 83-79 23.0% 10.0%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I'll plan to update every Monday.

[Phantom]

I am sure everyone will get these numbers stuck in their craw, but I think the fact that we have a 50% chance to make the playoffs is awesome. We are truly in a golden age for the Os.

[glenn__davis]

I think those numbers are pretty fair. I'd give a us just a little bit higher chance on both, but I'm not exactly unbiased

[FlipTheBird]

I am sure everyone will get these numbers stuck in their craw, but I think the fact that we have a 50% chance to make the playoffs is awesome. We are truly in a golden age for the Os.

I'm pretty sure everyone on this board would have signed up for "Orioles in 1st place on August 1." But, yes, some will complain vehemently about the numbers.

[HokieOs]

Time for the annual resuscitation of this thread. Here are the current odds, omitting all the teams who are .500 or worse:

Through 7/31/16

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

TOR 59-46 89-73 77.8% 43.2%

BOS 57-46 89-73 71.8% 36.2%

CLE 60-42 94-68 97.4% 90.2%

DET 56-48 86-76 47.3% 09.3%

TEX 62-44 90-72 84.5% 73.8%

HOU 55-49 85-77 38.7% 16.2%

SEA 52-50 83-79 23.0% 10.0%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I'll plan to update every Monday.

Now with the addition another legitimate starter in Miley, I feel a little better about our odds. I had our chances of making the playoffs at a bit 55-60% going into yesterday. With Miley, I think we're at about 60-65% as our big need is a guy who can simply eat innings with moderate effectiveness. There's a decent chance Miley can do that.

Odds of winning the division are still about right. My guess is that we finish 3rd and it's between us and Detroit for the 2nd Wild Card bid. The series in Michigan Sept 9-11 could be big for our playoff chances.

[malkusm]

They are projecting us to go 28-30 the rest of the way. That seems fairly pessimistic to me. Our schedule is fairly tough, yes, but we just played probably our worst baseball of the year in July and still went 12-14. I think we can go 30-28, which is what we'd need to bump us up to the 89-73 projection of the Jays and Sox.

[Frobby]

Through 8/7/16

This week, DET went 5-2, BAL went 4-2, SEA went 5-3, TOR went 4-3, TEX went 3-3, BOS went 3-4, and CLE and HOU went 2-5. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1%

TOR 63-49 90-72 81.8% 45.2%

BOS 60-50 88-74 66.2% 28.3%

CLE 62-47 91-71 91.3% 77.3%

DET 61-50 88-74 59.1% 22.6%

TEX 65-47 90-72 88.1% 81.3%

SEA 57-53 85-77 29.4% 12.7%

HOU 57-54 83-79 17.2% 06.1%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Edited August 8, 2016 by Frobby

[backwardsk]

I think Detroit gets a little disrespect here. They've gone from 5 games back to 2 in one week and still have a lower percentage than Boston who is three back and has to beat out two teams.

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[DirtyBird]

fivethirtyeight has us at 76% to make playoffs, 40% to win division

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

[Frobby]

fivethirtyeight has us at 76% to make playoffs, 40% to win division

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

I like that better.

[DirtyBird]

fivethirtyeight factors in pitchers and travel, in addition to elo ratings. Here are the pitcher ratings for the AL East contenders.