BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Going Underground]

Second wild card looks like a good possibility. Need to hit better than the Arizona series. Five hits yesterday and two could have been called an error.

[Aristotelian]

The Indians are 13-2 against the Tigers so far this season. So predicting a sweep for them seems almost impossible.

The Indians team right now is not the same time as the one that went 13-2. They lost two of their three best pitchers. I am not predicting a DET sweep, but I would consider DET the favorites in 3 of the 4 games and I see a higher chance of a DET sweep than a CLE sweep.

[eddie83]

My dream sequence is we go 3-1 next 4.

Tigers go 2-3.

Seattle 2-2

Astros lose 1.

We clinch a spot beefier Saturday's game .

I know it is a perfect storm but it isn't completely unrealistic.

[eddie83]

Fangraphs has the Orioles at 72.2%.

I do wonder if Francona will rest his players tonight vs Verlander. Want the Indians to get at least one more this series. Hope the Astros can win at least 1 vs Seattle.

Mariners may be bigger threat now than Detroit.

Let's win this one tonight.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has the Orioles at 72.2%.

I do wonder if Francona will rest his players tonight vs Verlander. Want the Indians to get at least one more this series. Hope the Astros can win at least 1 vs Seattle.

Mariners may be bigger threat now than Detroit.

Let's win this one tonight.

BP says 69.1%. They've always been slightly more pessimistic about the Orioles' chances than fangraphs over the last few weeks. To your point about the Mariners, BP now says their odds are 21.0% compared to Detroit's 16.4%. Fangraphs disagrees, they say 17.4% Detroit, 16.8% Seattle. Either way, our job is to win enough games to reduce their odds to zero.

[eddie83]

BP says 69.1%. They've always been slightly more pessimistic about the Orioles' chances than fangraphs over the last few weeks. To your point about the Mariners, BP now says their odds are 21.0% compared to Detroit's 16.4%. Fangraphs disagrees, they say 17.4% Detroit, 16.8% Seattle. Either way, our job is to win enough games to reduce their odds to zero.

I agree, it is on the Orioles.

I think the Braves will play the Tigers tougher than the A's vs the Mariners.

[Frobby]

Despite yesterday's loss and all the complicated scenarios, BP has our playoff odds at 93.7%. That means that there is only a narrow path to us missing the playoffs. Hopefully we will make the odds 100% by the simple path of winning today.

[Frobby]

Time for the annual resuscitation of this thread.   I'll update it weekly so long as the Orioles are still in the race.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 63-49 88-74 90.4 50.8

NYY 59-51 88-74 89.2 43.8

TBR 58-55 83-79 39.9 04.8

BAL 55-56 78-84 05.8  00.5

TOR 52-59 76-86 02.5 00.1

 

CLE 59-50 90-72 95.4 90.7

KCR 57-53 82-80 32.1 07.9

MIN 53-56 78-84 06.1 01.1

DET 51-59 76-86 02.1 00.3

 

HOU 71-40 101-61 100.0 100.0

SEA 57-56 81-81 22.7 00.0

LAA 55-57 79-83 07.5 00.0

TEX 53-58 78-84 05.9 00.0

 

It's interesting to see that the Twins and Angels are both given better odds than us despite being behind us in the standings.    

[glenn__davis]

With absolutely no analytical observations made, 5.8% for a playoff berth sounds about right.  

[foxfield]

They give Texas a better chance as well.  On the bright side they think we are more than twice as likely to make the playoffs as Toronto...so there is that.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

30 minutes ago, foxfield said:

They give Texas a better chance as well.  On the bright side they think we are more than twice as likely to make the playoffs as Toronto...so there is that.

I'm guessing run differential is the culprit. 

[Cumberbundy]

The twins, Angels & rangers are abysmal. There is little depth in either league with the NL WC certain to go to a lousy team as well. A year where selling & making the playoffs is more likely than most, as the Rangers may succeed in doing. Houston, Clev & Boston are the only teams who I feel we are outmatched against at full strength - and we haven't had a single reliable SP this year. 

[Cumberbundy]

Only the O's, Boston & LAD have won 7 or more of their last 10.

[riprulz8]

1 hour ago, Cumberbundy said:

The twins, Angels & rangers are abysmal. There is little depth in either league with the NL WC certain to go to a lousy team as well. A year where selling & making the playoffs is more likely than most, as the Rangers may succeed in doing. Houston, Clev & Boston are the only teams who I feel we are outmatched against at full strength - and we haven't had a single reliable SP this year. 

Colorado (64-48) and Arizona (63-48) hold the 2 NL WC spots right now, so I'm not sure about your comment.  Colorado has more wins than every other team save LAD, HOU, WAS - same with Arizona except they are tied in wins with BOS.   

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

With absolutely no analytical observations made, 5.8% for a playoff berth sounds about right.  

I know it's the west coast, and they are road games, but you should take a gander at Oak and LAA's teams. LAA has one regular over a .700 OPS(Trout).  OAK looks like a AAA rotation and lineup sans a couple guys. 

We have a superior lineup and pen. Maybe even an advantage on the pitching. We need to be able to go 4-2 in those 6 games.