BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Morgan423]

Boston may have very well picked up the division this week, with the Skankees rolling over for them.

Speaking of... we WANT them to win maybe 4 - 6 games a season (in circumstances like this) and they can't get it done in any of them. Is there anything more worthless? They're like a non-functioning, mutant third ear growing out of your armpit.

[Bradysburns]

B]Through 9/18/16[/b]

This week Boston went 5-2, Seattle went 4-2, Baltimore went 4-3, Texas and Houston went 3-3, Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland went 3-4, Kansas City went 2-5, and New York went 1-6. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 85-64 92-70 99.5% 87.2%

BAL 82-67 88-74 75.8% 08.4%

TOR 81-68 88-74 63.2% 04.3%

NYY 77-72 83-79 02.0% 00.0%

CLE 86-63 93-69 99.9% 99.6%

DET 79-70 86-76 22.6% 00.4%

KCR 76-73 82-80 00.3% 00.0%

TEX 88-62 95-67 100.0% 100.0%

SEA 79-70 86-76 23.2% 00.0%

HOU 78-71 85-77 13.3% 00.0%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

Through 8/28/16: 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5% (4-3 previous week)

Through 9/04/16: 74-62 86-76 32.6% 04.3% (3-3 previous week)

Through 9/11/16: 78-64 88-74 55.3% 11.9% (4-2 previous week)

Through 9/18/16: 82-67 88-74 75.8% 08.4% (4-3 previous week)

Great analysis. After recursive sub-analysis and performing my usual Bayesian regressions, I have come to the conclusion that I hate Boston.

[Machado13]

They're like a non-functioning, mutant third ear growing out of your armpit.

Hahaha that's hilarious!

[Frobby]

Boston may have very well picked up the division this week, with the Skankees rolling over for them.

Speaking of... we WANT them to win maybe 4 - 6 games a season (in circumstances like this) and they can't get it done in any of them. Is there anything more worthless? They're like a non-functioning, mutant third ear growing out of your armpit.

They still have 4 games with Toronto, 3 with Boston, and 3 with us, so there is plenty more time for them to hurt or help our playoff chances. To quote from To Have and To Have Not, "Wuz ya ever stung by a dead bee?"

[weams]

They still have 4 games with Toronto, 3 with Boston, and 3 with us, so there is plenty more time for them to hurt or help our playoff chances. To quote from To Have and To Have Not, "Wuz ya ever stung by a dead bee?"

Win Thread.

[Frobby]

Through 9/25/16

This week Boston went 7-0, Toronto went 5-1,Cleveland and Texas went 4-2, Detroit and Houston went 4-3, Seattle went 3-3, and Baltimore went 3-4. Kansas City (3-4) and New York (2-4) saw their playoff odds slip to zero, so they have been dropped below. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 92-64 96-66 100.0% 99.8%

TOR 86-69 90-72 94.3% 00.2%

BAL 85-71 88-74 64.8% 00.0%

CLE 90-65 94-68 100.0% 100.0%

DET 83-72 87-75 22.6% 00.4%

TEX 92-64 95-67 100.0% 100.0%

SEA 82-73 86-76 10.0% 00.0%

HOU 82-74 85-77 04.6% 00.0%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

Through 8/28/16: 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5% (4-3 previous week)

Through 9/04/16: 74-62 86-76 32.6% 04.3% (3-3 previous week)

Through 9/11/16: 78-64 88-74 55.3% 11.9% (4-2 previous week)

Through 9/18/16: 82-67 88-74 75.8% 08.4% (4-3 previous week)

Through 9/25/16: 85-71 88-74 64.8% 00.0% (3-4 previous week)

That's the last weekly update, since next Monday the standings will be final. Hopefully, our playoff odds will be 100% by then, because the alternative is 0%. (I suppose if there was a tie, it could be something different.)

[LookitsPuck]

I wanna say after that 4 game sweep we were at something like 34%.

The Tigers are at home facing the Indians starting today.

Matchups:

Kluber vs. Farmer

Clevinger vs. Verlander

Bauer vs. Fulmer

Feel like that's going to be a tough series for the Indians. Hopefully the Indians sweep. Will be nice to go into Tuesday morning with a 2 game lead in the W.C.

As always, O's need to take care of their business. 6 games left.

[atomic]

Here is one I liked seeing

Yankees 79-76 0% 0%

[Frobby]

Here's what's left:

BOS: @NYY 3, TOR 3

TOR: NYY 1, BAL 3, @BOS 3

BAL: @TOR 3, @NYY 3

CLE: @DET 4, @KCR 3

DET: CLE 4, @ATL 3

TEX: MIL 3, TBR 3

SEA: @HOU 3, OAK 4

HOU: SEA 3, @LAA 3

I'll be watching that Seattle-Houston series carefully. If either team sweeps it, they could be dangerous.

[atomic]

Here's what's left:

BOS: @NYY 3, TOR 3

TOR: NYY 1, BAL 3, @BOS 3

BAL: @TOR 3, @NYY 3

CLE: @DET 4, @KCR 3

DET: CLE 4, @ATL 3

TEX: MIL 3, TBR 3

SEA: @HOU 3, OAK 4

HOU: SEA 3, @LAA 3

I'll be watching that Seattle-Houston series carefully. If either team sweeps it, they could be dangerous.

If we win the rest of our games we would be the first wild-card team. If we have to worry about Seattle and Houston that means we lost quite a few games.

[Aristotelian]

I wanna say after that 4 game sweep we were at something like 34%.

The Tigers are at home facing the Indians starting today.

Matchups:

Kluber vs. Farmer

Clevinger vs. Verlander

Bauer vs. Fulmer

Feel like that's going to be a tough series for the Indians. Hopefully the Indians sweep. Will be nice to go into Tuesday morning with a 2 game lead in the W.C.

As always, O's need to take care of their business. 6 games left.

I don't like those pitching matchups at all with CLE missing two of their top three pitchers. The 4th game is likely to be Cody Anderson or Tomlin against Norris. I think DET has a much higher chance of a sweep than CLE. I really think the O's odds are no more than 50% at this point with DET having a soft schedule the rest of the way.

[MDK02]

I don't like those pitching matchups at all with CLE missing two of their top three pitchers. The 4th game is likely to be Cody Anderson or Tomlin against Norris. I think DET has a much higher chance of a sweep than CLE. I really think the O's odds are no more than 50% at this point with DET having a soft schedule the rest of the way.

Indians need to take tonight's game with Kluber on the mound. The other two games might be tough for them to win and lets just hope Seattle and Houston take turns winning games.

[Frobby]

I wanna say after that 4 game sweep we were at something like 34%.

The Tigers are at home facing the Indians starting today.

Matchups:

Kluber vs. Farmer

Clevinger vs. Verlander

Bauer vs. Fulmer

Feel like that's going to be a tough series for the Indians. Hopefully the Indians sweep. Will be nice to go into Tuesday morning with a 2 game lead in the W.C.

As always, O's need to take care of their business. 6 games left.

I don't like those pitching matchups at all with CLE missing two of their top three pitchers. The 4th game is likely to be Cody Anderson or Tomlin against Norris. I think DET has a much higher chance of a sweep than CLE. I really think the O's odds are no more than 50% at this point with DET having a soft schedule the rest of the way.

Indians need to take tonight's game with Kluber on the mound. The other two games might be tough for them to win and lets just hope Seattle and Houston take turns winning games.

It's actually a four-game series. ESPN lists the fourth matchup as Anderson vs. Norris.

[bpilktree]

I don't like those pitching matchups at all with CLE missing two of their top three pitchers. The 4th game is likely to be Cody Anderson or Tomlin against Norris. I think DET has a much higher chance of a sweep than CLE. I really think the O's odds are no more than 50% at this point with DET having a soft schedule the rest of the way.

The Indians are 13-2 against the Tigers so far this season. So predicting a sweep for them seems almost impossible.

[OFFNY]

o

Right now, the Blue Jays lead the season series against the Orioles, 9 games to 7.

So the only way that the Orioles would be able to hold the tiebreaker for home-field advantage in a potential Wildcard playoff game between the two teams would be to win all 3 games in Toronto on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

You can't win all 3 games of a series unless you win the first game ........ win tomorrow night, Orioles.