BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Frobby]

Through 8/14/16

This week, Cleveland and Seattle went 5-1, Toronto and Boston went 4-2, Texas and Houston went 4-3, Baltimore went 3-4 and Detroit went 2-3. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

TOR 67-51 91-71 83.9% 49.3%

BAL 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7%

BOS 64-52 89-73 69.9% 31.4%

CLE 67-48 93-69 96.5% 89.9%

DET 63-54 87-75 44.5% 10.0%

TEX 69-50 91-71 87.8% 76.1%

SEA 62-54 87-75 42.9% 19.5%

HOU 61-57 84-78 15.0% 09.7%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

[Frobby]

Through 8/21/16

This week, Boston and Texas went 4-2, Cleveland and Seattle went 4-3, Toronto and Houston went 3-3, 4-3, Detroit went 2-5, and Baltimore went 1-5. Obviously, not a good week. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

TOR 70-54 91-71 89.6% 47.0%

BOS 69-54 91-71 89.4% 48.2%

BAL 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4%

CLE 71-51 94-68 98.2% 95.5%

DET 65-59 85-77 26.9% 03.8%

TEX 73-52 92-70 94.9% 85.0%

SEA 66-57 87-75 42.9% 19.5%

HOU 64-60 84-78 15.8% 02.2%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

[O's84]

Through 8/21/16

This week, Boston and Texas went 4-2, Cleveland and Seattle went 4-3, Toronto and Houston went 3-3, 4-3, Detroit went 2-5, and Baltimore went 1-5. Obviously, not a good week. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

TOR 70-54 91-71 89.6% 47.0%

BOS 69-54 91-71 89.4% 48.2%

BAL 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4%

CLE 71-51 94-68 98.2% 95.5%

DET 65-59 85-77 26.9% 03.8%

TEX 73-52 92-70 94.9% 85.0%

SEA 66-57 87-75 42.9% 19.5%

HOU 64-60 84-78 15.8% 02.2%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

We were sitting in a really nice play but then fell out the window. Gotta climb back up again soon.

[Frobby]

Through 8/28/16

This week, Toronto, Detroit, Houston and Texas went 4-2, Baltimore went 4-3, Boston went 3-4, Cleveland went 2-4, and Seattle went 2-5. New York and Kansas City also went 4-2 and I've added them to the weekly chart since they're tied in the loss column with Seattle and Houston and only 3 - 3.5 games out of the second wild card.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

TOR 74-56 91-71 92.9% 56.7%

BOS 72-58 90-72 83.7% 35.8%

BAL 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5%

NYY 67-62 83-79 07.5% 1.0%

CLE 73-56 92-70 94.5% 88.4%

DET 69-61 86-76 33.9% 08.9%

KCR 68-62 84-78 11.8% 02.5%

TEX 77-54 93-69 98.2% 95.6%

SEA 68-62 85-77 19.7% 02.6%

HOU 68-62 85-77 18.7% 01.7%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

Through 8/28/16: 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5% (4-3 previous week)

[Frobby]

Through 9/4/16

This week Cleveland went 6-0. Texas and Detroit went 5-1, Boston and Houston went 4-2, Baltimore, Toronto and New York went 3-3, Kansas City went 2-4, and Seattle went 1-5.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

TOR 77-59 91-71 92.5% 50.3%

BOS 76-60 91-71 89.5% 45.0%

BAL 74-62 86-76 32.6% 04.3%

NYY 70-65 83-79 03.7% 0.4

CLE 79-56 94-68 99.3% 93.3%

DET 74-62 88-74 60.0% 06.6%

KCR 70-66 83-79 02.8% 00.1%

TEX 82-55 95-67 99.9% 99.8%

HOU 72-64 85-77 17.3% 00.1%

SEA 69-67 82-80 02.4% 00.0%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

Through 8/28/16: 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5% (4-3 previous week)

Through 9/04/16: 74-62 86-76 32.6% 04.3% (3-3 previous week)

[Frobby]

Through 9/11/16

This week Seattle went 6-1, New York went 5-1, Boston, Baltimore and Kansas City went 4-2, Cleveland went 4-3, Texas and Houston went 3-4, Detroit went 2-4, and Toronto went 1-5. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 80-62 91-71 94.8% 70.8%

TOR 78-64 89-73 69.6% 15.2%

BAL 78-64 88-74 55.3% 11.9%

NYY 75-66 85-77 14.9% 02.1%

CLE 83-59 94-68 99.6% 97.8%

DET 76-66 87-75 33.7% 02.0%

KCR 74-68 84-78 05.2% 00.2%

TEX 85-59 95-67 100.0% 99.9%

HOU 75-68 85-77 14.5% 00.0%

SEA 75-68 85-77 12.5% 00.1%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

Through 8/28/16: 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5% (4-3 previous week)

Through 9/04/16: 74-62 86-76 32.6% 04.3% (3-3 previous week)

Through 9/11/16: 78-64 88-74 55.3% 11.9% (4-2 previous week)

[SilentJames]

This will obviously be updated for today, but that makes sense to me. Even money to make the playoffs, an outside chance at the division.

BP obviously thinks the Sox will take care of business against the Orioles - I think otherwise of course.

[weams]

Through 9/11/16

This week Seattle went 6-1, New York went 5-1, Boston, Baltimore and Kansas City went 4-2, Cleveland went 4-3, Texas and Houston went 3-4, Detroit went 2-4, and Toronto went 1-5. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 80-62 91-71 94.8% 70.8%

TOR 78-64 89-73 69.6% 15.2%

BAL 78-64 88-74 55.3% 11.9%

NYY 75-66 85-77 14.9% 02.1%

CLE 83-59 94-68 99.6% 97.8%

DET 76-66 87-75 33.7% 02.0%

KCR 74-68 84-78 05.2% 00.2%

TEX 85-59 95-67 100.0% 99.9%

HOU 75-68 85-77 14.5% 00.0%

SEA 75-68 85-77 12.5% 00.1%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

Through 8/28/16: 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5% (4-3 previous week)

Through 9/04/16: 74-62 86-76 32.6% 04.3% (3-3 previous week)

Through 9/11/16: 78-64 88-74 55.3% 11.9% (4-2 previous week)

They pick an arbitrary SIM expectancy to run the projection. So they are selecting the odds ahead of time.

[weams]

This is the Fangraphs projection.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp

Clubs

W L PCT GB E# DIV% WCGB WCE# WC% POST%

Boston 80 62 .563 - - 65.3 - - 28.2 93.4

Toronto 78 64 .549 2.0 19 21.3 - - 53.2 74.5

Baltimore 78 64 .549 2.0 19 12.0 - - 44.7 56.7

New York 76 66 .535 4.0 17 1.4 2.0 19 12.1 13.5

St Petersburg 60 82 .423 20.0 1 0.0 18.0 3 0.0 0.0

[Frobby]

They pick an arbitrary SIM expectancy to run the projection. So they are selecting the odds ahead of time.

I would not say their SIM expectancy is "arbitrary," but I don't think their methodology has proven very reliable. With 20 games to play, the flaws don't matter very much. 538.com has us at 55% playoffs, 16% division title; fangraphs has it 57% playoffs, 12% divison title. It probably wouldn't change much even if you simply used the current W/L% as the median basepoint for performance over the final 20 games. That would cause our odds to go up, but not astronomically.

For me, the big takeaway is that after last week's performance, our odds are the best they've been since August 14, which was the last time our odds were seen as better than 50/50. It was a real good week. Now let's go have another one.

[weams]

And this is today's 538

AVG. SIMULATED SEASON POSTSEASON CHANCES

TEAM DIVISION RATING 1-WEEK CHANGE RECORD RUN DIFF. MAKE PLAYOFFS WIN DIVISION WIN WORLD SERIES

BOS

Red Sox80-62

AL EAST 1558

+8

91-71 +173 90% 63% 14%

TOR

Blue Jays78-64

AL EAST 1540

-11

88-74 +88 63% 17% 6%

BAL

Orioles78-64

AL EAST 1522

+11

88-74 +35 55% 16% 4%

NYY

Yankees76-66

AL EAST 1527

+7

86-76 -10 22% 4% 2%

[weams]

I would not say their SIM expectancy is "arbitrary," but I don't think their methodology has proven very reliable. With 20 games to play, the flaws don't matter very much. 538.com has us at 55% playoffs, 16% division title; fangraphs has it 57% playoffs, 12% divison title. It probably wouldn't change much even if you simply used the current W/L% as the median basepoint for performance over the final 20 games. That would cause our odds to go up, but not astronomically.

For me, the big takeaway is that after last week's performance, our odds are the best they've been since August 14, which was the last time our odds were seen as better than 50/50. It was a real good week. Now let's go have another one.

But they pick a win rate. They pick it. That was all I was saying. Not that it was wrong or different than the others. Just that they determine the outcome. It's flawed analysis.

[Frobby]

But they pick a win rate. They pick it. That was all I was saying. Not that it was wrong or different than the others. Just that they determine the outcome. It's flawed analysis.

They don't "pick" a win rate, as I understand it. The use PECOTA projections, which are all based on a mathematical algorhythm, to project a win rate at the beginning of the year, and then there is a methodology for adjusting it as the year proceeds and new data is added. And it also depends on who the competition is the rest of the way. So really the issue here is that PECOTA did not think we would be very good before the year started, and even though PECOTA projections have gotten more bullish on the Orioles based on their 54.9% win rate so far this year, the pre-season projections still have some weight in their analysis. But this isn't just some guy at BP saying "I don't think the Orioles are very good, so let's assume their midpoint is 49.4% the rest of the way." There is a methodology behind it which is not subjective in the way it is applied to the different teams.

[weams]

They don't "pick" a win rate, as I understand it. The use PECOTA projections, which are all based on a mathematical algorhythm, to project a win rate at the beginning of the year, and then there is a methodology for adjusting it as the year proceeds and new data is added. And it also depends on who the competition is the rest of the way. So really the issue here is that PECOTA did not think we would be very good before the year started, and even though PECOTA projections have gotten more bullish on the Orioles based on their 54.9% win rate so far this year, the pre-season projections still have some weight in their analysis. But this isn't just some guy at BP saying "I don't think the Orioles are very good, so let's assume their midpoint is 49.4% the rest of the way." There is a methodology behind it which is not subjective in the way it is applied to the different teams.

Ok Thanks. That's not how I interpreted the explanation that popped up on hover.

[Frobby]

B]Through 9/18/16[/b]

This week Boston went 5-2, Seattle went 4-2, Baltimore went 4-3, Texas and Houston went 3-3, Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland went 3-4, Kansas City went 2-5, and New York went 1-6. The current odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 85-64 92-70 99.5% 87.2%

BAL 82-67 88-74 75.8% 08.4%

TOR 81-68 88-74 63.2% 04.3%

NYY 77-72 83-79 02.0% 00.0%

CLE 86-63 93-69 99.9% 99.6%

DET 79-70 86-76 22.6% 00.4%

KCR 76-73 82-80 00.3% 00.0%

TEX 88-62 95-67 100.0% 100.0%

SEA 79-70 86-76 23.2% 00.0%

HOU 78-71 85-77 13.3% 00.0%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles snapshot:

Through 7/31/16: 59-45 87-75 51.6% 19.6%

Through 8/07/16: 63-47 88-74 63.3% 26.1% (4-2 previous week)

Through 8/14/16: 66-51 88-74 55.2% 18.7% (3-4 previous week)

Through 8/21/16: 67-56 85-77 28.4% 04.4% (1-5 previous week)

Through 8/28/16: 71-59 86-76 38.5% 06.5% (4-3 previous week)

Through 9/04/16: 74-62 86-76 32.6% 04.3% (3-3 previous week)

Through 9/11/16: 78-64 88-74 55.3% 11.9% (4-2 previous week)

Through 9/18/16: 82-67 88-74 75.8% 08.4% (4-3 previous week)