BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Frobby]

August 14

This week, Minnesota and the Angels each went 6-1, the Red Sox went 4-1, Toronto and Cleveland went 4-2, Texas went 3-2, the Orioles went 3-4, New York and Seattle went 2-5, Kansas City and Detroit went 2-5 and the Astros went 1-5.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 67-50 90-72 97.4 76.4

NYY 61-55 87-75 84.3 22.1

TBR 59-60 81-81 22.8 01.1

BAL 58-60 78-84 06.9  00.3

TOR 56-61 77-85 03.9 00.1

 

CLE 63-52 90-72 97.4 93.7

MIN 59-57 81-81 24.0 03.4

KCR 59-58 81-81 18.1 02.8

DET 53-64 74-88 00.4 00.0

 

HOU 72-45 98-64 100.0 99.9

LAA 61-58 81-81 22.4 00.0

SEA 59-60 80-82 13.0 00.0

TEX 56-60 79-83 09.3 00.0

 

Here's the Orioles' week-by week progress:

8/07: 55-56 78-84 05.8  00.5

8/14: 58-60 78-84 06.9 00.3

It's interesting that their playoff odds actually went up a little despite going 3-4.    And note that the "cut line" for the second wild card is now projected at 81-81.

[Frobby]

I was away last week, so this is a 2-week update.   In that time, Cleveland went 10-4, New York went 9-4, Minnesota and Texas went 8-6, the Orioles and Seattle went 7-5, Houston went 7-6, Boston and Tampa went 6-7, KC and LA went 5-7 and Toronto went 5-8.   Detroit fell off the list and is now rated at 0% chance to make the playoffs.

Team/Record/Proj. Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 73-57 90-72 98.4 60.6

NYY 70-59 89-73 97.0 39.2

BAL 65-65 80-82 07.6 00.1

TBR 65-67 80-82 11.0 00.1

TOR 61-69 76-85 00.6 00.0

 

CLE 73-56 93-69 99.8 99.0

MIN 67-63 83-79 38.9 00.9

KCR 64-65 80-82 10.2 00.1

 

HOU 79-51 98-64 100.0 100.0

SEA 66-65 81-81 14.8 00.0

LAA 66-65 81-81 13.8 00.0

TEX 64-66 80-82 07.9 00.0

 

Here's a weekly snapshot of the Orioles:

8/07: 55-56 78-84 05.8 00.5

8/14: 58-60 78-84 06.9 00.3 (O's went 3-4 in prior week)

8/28: 65-65 80-82 07.6 00.1 (O's went 2-4 and 5-1 in prior 2 weeks)

[Frobby]

September 4

The Orioles did well this week, but so did many of the contenders.   The Indians went 7-0, the Orioles went 5-2, the Twins, Angels, Astros and Rangers went 4-2, the Red Sox went 4-3, the Royals, Mariners and Rays went 3-3, and the Yankees went 3-4.

Team/Record/Proj. Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 77-60 90-72 99.5 77.1

NYY 73-63 88-74 94.0 22.6

BAL 70-67 81-81 10.9 00.3

TBR 68-70 80-82 05.7 00.1

 

CLE 80-56 97-65 100.0 100.0

MIN 71-65 84-78 46.9 00.0

KCR 67-68 80-82 04.8 00.0

 

HOU 83-53 98-64 100.0 100.0

LAA 70-67 82-80 18.7 00.0

SEA 69-68 81-81 08.4 00.0

TEX 68-68 81-81 10.9 00.0

 

Here's a weekly snapshot of the Orioles:

8/07: 55-56 78-84 05.8 00.5

8/14: 58-60 78-84 06.9 00.3 (O's went 3-4 in prior week)

8/28: 65-65 80-82 07.6 00.1 (O's went 2-4 and 5-1 in prior 2 weeks)

9/04: 70-67 81-81 10.9 00.3 (O's went 5-2 in prior week)

 

[schittenden]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

September 4

The Orioles did well this week, but so did many of the contenders.   The Indians went 7-0, the Orioles went 5-2, the Twins, Angels, Astros and Rangers went 4-2, the Red Sox went 4-3, the Royals, Mariners and Rays went 3-3, and the Yankees went 3-4.

Team/Record/Proj. Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 77-60 90-72 99.5 77.1

NYY 73-63 88-74 94.0 22.6

BAL 70-67 81-81 10.9 00.3

TBR 68-70 80-82 05.7 00.1

 

CLE 80-56 97-65 100.0 100.0

MIN 71-65 84-78 46.9 00.0

KCR 67-68 80-82 04.8 00.0

 

HOU 83-53 98-64 100.0 100.0

LAA 70-67 82-80 18.7 00.0

SEA 69-68 81-81 08.4 00.0

TEX 68-68 81-81 10.9 00.0

 

Here's a weekly snapshot of the Orioles:

8/07: 55-56 78-84 05.8 00.5

8/14: 58-60 78-84 06.9 00.3 (O's went 3-4 in prior week)

8/28: 65-65 80-82 07.6 00.1 (O's went 2-4 and 5-1 in prior 2 weeks)

9/04: 70-67 81-81 10.9 00.3 (O's went 5-2 in prior week)

 

The trend is your friend. 

[Frobby]

Sept. 11

Cleveland went 7-0, Boston and New York went 4-2, Kansas City and Houston went 4-3,  Tampa, LA and Texas went 3-3, Minnesota went 3-4, Seattle went 2-4 and the Orioles went 1-5.  

Team/Record/Proj. Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 81-62 91-71 100.0 79.6

NYY 77-65 89-73 99.0 20.3

BAL 71-72 80-82 03.4 00.0

TBR 71-73 80-82 04.3 00.0

 

CLE 87-56 99-63 100.0 100.0

MIN 74-69 83-79 46.6 00.0

KCR 71-71 80-82 05.8 00.0

 

HOU 87-56 97-65 100.0 100.0

LAA 73-79 82-80 22.3 00.0

TEX 71-71 81-81 13.4 00.0

SEA 71-72 80-82 05.2 00.0

 

 

Here's a weekly snapshot of the Orioles:

8/07: 55-56 78-84 05.8 00.5

8/14: 58-60 78-84 06.9 00.3 (O's went 3-4 in prior week)

8/28: 65-65 80-82 07.6 00.1 (O's went 2-4 and 5-1 in prior 2 weeks)

9/04: 70-67 81-81 10.9 00.3 (O's went 5-2 in prior week)

9/11: 71-72 80-82 03.4 00.0 (O's went 1-5 in prior week)

[Frobby]

September 18

Cleveland went 6-1, New York went 5-2, Boston, Minnesota and Houston went 4-2, LA Angels went 3-3, Tampa went 2-4, and Baltimore, KC and Texas went 2-5.

 

BOS 85-64 92-70 100.0 84.2

NYY 82-67 89-73 100.0 15.8

BAL 73-77 79-83 00.5 00.0

TBR 73-77 79-83 00.9 00.0

 

CLE 93-57 101-61 100.0 100.0

MIN 78-71 84-78 73.0 00.0

KCR 73-76 79-83 01.1 00.0

 

HOU 91-58 98-64 100.0 100.0

LAA 76-73 82-80 20.7 00.0

SEA 74-76 80-82 02.2 00.0

TEX 73-76 79-83 01.8 00.0

 

Here's a weekly snapshot of the Orioles:

8/07: 55-56 78-84 05.8 00.5

8/14: 58-60 78-84 06.9 00.3 (O's went 3-4 in prior week)

8/28: 65-65 80-82 07.6 00.1 (O's went 2-4 and 5-1 in prior 2 weeks)

9/04: 70-67 81-81 10.9 00.3 (O's went 5-2 in prior week)

9/11: 71-72 80-82 03.4 00.0 (O's went 1-5 in prior week)

9/18: 73-77 79-83 00.5 00.0 (O's went 2-5 in prior week)

[Frobby]

I thought it would be fun to dust off this old thread from 2013 that continued through the 2017 season.  Every August I’d start posting the BP odds on a weekly basis.   Back then, BP was the only major outlet doing this.  Now, BB-ref does it, Fangraphs has three different models, etc.   But BP was the original, so I’m going to stick with them for old times’ sake.   As things stand today:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

NYY 74-48 95-67 100.0% 92.3%

TOR 65-55 87-75  74.7%  03.7%

TBR 65-55 86-76  65.9% 03.8%

BAL 63-58 83-79  31.3% 00.2%

BOS 60-62 80-82  08.6% 00.0%

CLE 64-56 85-77  62.8% 48.5%

MIN 62-57 83-79  38.1% 26.9%

CWS 62-59 83-79  37.1% 24.6%

HOU 78-45 99-63 100.0% 99.3%

SEA 66-56 87-75  81.2% 00.7%

It’s a real horse race, and BP’s Oriole playoff odds of 31.3% feel about right to me.  The odds are clearly against us, but they’re not ridiculously long.  Fangraphs’ ZiPS/Steamer model has us at 4.2%, which is just ridiculously low.  Their season-to-date model has us at 33.2%, close to BP’s.  Their coin flip model has us at 37.9%.   BB-ref has us at 37.4%.

For me the most relevant information above is that BP think the 6th place team will win at least 86 games.  I think that’s highly likely, and it might even be 87-88.   So, the O’s will need to go at least 23-18 down the stretch to make the playoffs, and maybe better.  That won’t be easy given our SOS down the stretch.

[Spy Fox]

One more site that does it these days is FiveThirtyEight who has us at 13%. To me that # "feels" more right than the others I've seen. The 1/3 of BP feels too high and the 1/20 of Fangraphs feels too low. 13% is about 1/8.

Their model also predicts the 3rd WC at 86-76 and currently has Tampa in that spot with Chicago missing it by a game, Cleveland by 2 games, and the O's by 5 games at 81-81.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

One more site that does it these days is FiveThirtyEight who has us at 13%. To me that # "feels" more right than the others I've seen. The 1/3 of BP feels too high and the 1/20 of Fangraphs feels too low. 13% is about 1/8.

Their model also predicts the 3rd WC at 86-76 and currently has Tampa in that spot with Chicago missing it by a game, Cleveland by 2 games, and the O's by 5 games at 81-81.  

Well, they have us finishing 81-81 meaning we’d go 18-23 over the remaining games.  That would disappoint me at this stage.   I almost can’t believe that I’d find an 81-81 season disappointing considering my expectations going into the year, but that’s how I feel now.   

[Sports Guy]

Holy 5 year old thread bump Batman!

[Redskins Rick]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holy 5 year old thread bump Batman!

Cant even blame OFF-NY for that.

Speaking of which, hadnt seen him here in ages.

[Frobby]

Week ending August 28

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

NYY 78-50 96-66 100.0% 94.3%  4-2 last week

TBR 70-57 87-75  82.1% 03.1% 5-2 last week

TOR 68-58 87-75  74.1%  02.3%  3-3 last week

BAL 67-60 84-78  39.0% 00.3% 4-2 last week

BOS 62-66 79-83  03.9% 00.0%  2-4 last week

CLE 67-59 86-76  73.6% 68.8% 3-3 last week

MIN 66-61 83-79  30.3% 23.2% 3-4 last week

CWS 63-65 80-82  11.1% 08.0% 1-6 last week

HOU 82-47 99-63 100.0% 99.9%   4-2 last week

SEA 70-58 88-74  85.5% 00.1%   4-2 last week

 

Here's a weekly snapshot of the Orioles:

Week ending 8/21: 63-58 83-79  31.3% 00.2%

Week ending 8/28: 67-60 84-78  39.0% 00.3%  4-2 last week

 

Our odds improved from 31.3% to 39.0% on the strength of a 4-2 week against the White Sox and Astros.  Tampa was the big winner of the week, going from 65.9% to 82.1% on the back of a 5-2 week.   The White Sox took it on the chin, falling from 37.1% t0 11.1% after a 1-6 week.   

Edited August 29, 2022 by Frobby

[Frobby]

Week ending September 5

Normally I post this on Mondays, but BP didn't update their site yesterday.   I can tell you that the Orioles' playoff odds were 44.4% as of Sept. 3, and the three consecutive losses (including two to Toronto, who we are chasing) knocked us down all the way to 20.9%.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

NYY 81-54 95-67  99.8% 87.1%  3-4 last week 

TBR 75-58 89-74  91.8% 05.5% 5-1 last week

TOR 75-59 89-73  88.2%  07.0%  7-1 last week

BAL 71-64 84-78  20.5% 00.4% 4-4 last week

BOS 67-69 80-82  01.2% 00.0%  5-3 last week

CLE 69-64 84-78  53.9% 53.6% 2-5 last week

MIN 68-65 82-80  30.0% 29.6% 2-4 last week

CWS 68-67 82-80  17.9% 16.8% 5-2 last week

HOU 87-48 101-61 100.0% 99.9%   5-1 last week

SEA 76-59 90-72  96.3% 00.1%   6-1 last week

 

Here's a weekly snapshot of the Orioles:

Week ending 8/21: 63-58 83-79  31.3% 00.2%

Week ending 8/28: 67-60 84-78  39.0% 00.3%  4-2 last week

Week ending 9/5: 71-64 84-78  20.5% 00.4% 4-4 last week