BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Frobby]

I'd be interested to know what the BP odds were this time last year. We almost have the same record I believe. Competition this year is certainly much stiffer.

A year ago today, we were 72-58 and 1.5 games ahead of Tampa for the final wild card spot. Therefore, our odds were much better.

[Morgan423]

12 percent chance. Lower than I was thinking, but not by a lot.

[tntoriole]

So the vast statistical likelihood is Bost, Det, Texas for division winners and TB/Oak in the wild card play in. That is not surprising at this point.

[Frobby]

September 2

Oakland and Boston went 3-0, New York and Detroit went 2-1, Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City and Texas went 1-2, and Tampa went 0-3. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 82-56 95-67 99.3% 93.1%

TBR 75-60 90-72 77.2% 06.3%

BAL 72-63 85-77 09.6% 00.5%

NYY 72-64 85-77 07.0% 00.2%

DET 80-57 95-67 99.7% 99.4%

CLE 72-64 86-76 14.6% 00.5%

KCR 70-66 82-80 00.8% 00.1%

TEX 79-57 93-69 96.4% 59.2%

OAK 78-58 92-70 95.4% 40.8%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Huge week for Oakland, going 6-1 for the week and seeing their playoff odds go from 59% to 95% in seven days. Meanwhile, our 2-4 week cut our odds in half.

[Frobby]

September 5

New York went 3-0, Oakland, Tampa, Cleveland, Boston, Oakland, and KC went 2-1, Baltimore, Texas and Detroit went 1-2. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 84-57 96-66 99.6% 95.4%

TBR 77-61 90-72 79.0% 04.3%

NYY 75-64 86-76 10.6% 00.1%

BAL 73-65 85-77 05.6% 00.1%

DET 81-59 95-67 99.7% 99.4%

CLE 74-65 87-75 13.3% 00.5%

KCR 72-67 83-79 00.8% 00.1%

TEX 80-59 92-70 94.6% 48.6%

OAK 80-59 93-69 96.8% 51.4%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

The O's are sinking fast (but just won the Chicago opener, not included in tonight's report).

[Fla_O'sfan]

Where can I bet it because the MF Yankees are going to pass everyone?

[scOtt]

Where can I bet it because the MF Yankees are going to pass everyone?

Vegas.

Baby!

[Morgan423]

Big win last night for us per BP. Added 3.3% to our odds and we're back up to 9%. I know, not great but better than 5% a few days back!

[Frobby]

Big win last night for us per BP. Added 3.3% to our odds and we're back up to 9%. I know, not great but better than 5% a few days back!

It's amazing how much the odds can fluctuate in a day, depending on who wins and loses. Not only did we win yesterday, but the Rays and Yankees both lost, so that improved our chances significantly.

We are at the point, though, where our odds will slip noticeably on any day when we don't gain ground, even when we win.

[Frobby]

September 9

Baltimore, Boston, Kansas City and Oakland went 3-1, Cleveland went 2-1, Texas and Detroit went 1-2, and New York and Tampa went 1-3. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 87-58 97-65 100.% 99.3%

TBR 78-64 89-73 67.9% 00.7%

BAL 76-66 86-76 10.6% 00.1%

NYY 76-67 85-77 06.9% 00.0%

DET 82-61 94-68 99.7% 99.0%

CLE 76-66 87-75 20.5% 01.0%

KCR 75-68 84-78 01.8% 00.1%

OAK 83-60 93-69 99.0% 61.4%

TEX 81-61 92-70 93.7% 38.6%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

The O's were up to 17.9% before Sunday's loss and wins by Tampa and New York.

[Dipper9]

September 9

Baltimore, Boston, Kansas City and Oakland went 3-1, Cleveland went 2-1, Texas and Detroit went 1-2, and New York and Tampa went 1-3. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 87-58 97-65 100.% 99.3%

TBR 78-64 89-73 67.9% 00.7%

BAL 76-66 86-76 10.6% 00.1%

NYY 76-67 85-77 06.9% 00.0%

DET 82-61 94-68 99.7% 99.0%

CLE 76-66 87-75 20.5% 01.0%

KCR 75-68 84-78 01.8% 00.1%

OAK 83-60 93-69 99.0% 61.4%

TEX 81-61 92-70 93.7% 38.6%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

The O's were up to 17.9% before Sunday's loss and wins by Tampa and New York.

Boston helped us vs the MFY. Lets hope they do the same to the MFR. (That's right, the Rays are on that list now too!)

[Frobby]

I think this may be the last time I bother to update this thread, unless the O's have a reversal of fortune.

September 13

New York went 3-1, Boston, Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland went 2-1, Cleveland went 2-2, Tampa went 1-2, Baltimore went 1-3 and Texas went 0-3. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 89-59 97-65 100.% 99.9%

TBR 79-66 89-73 67.7% 00.1%

NYY 79-68 86-76 16.4% 00.0%

BAL 77-69 85-77 04.4% 00.0%

DET 84-62 94-68 99.9% 99.6%

CLE 78-68 87-75 22.1% 00.4%

KCR 77-69 85-77 04.2% 00.0%

OAK 85-61 94-68 99.6% 83.9%

TEX 81-64 90-72 85.6% 16.1%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[hoosiers]

Acknowledging that the odds do not go back as far as the trade deadline, IMO, it is really difficult to look at these odds and reconcile them with the prospects and early draft pick we gave up for fairly mediocre players. Our September schedule was always going to be difficult. Sure, it's been close and we've had chances, but we had a competitive team BEFORE those trades were made and there would have been nothing wrong with playing out the string with the group that was doing fairly well as it was. Of course, there is still time for this team to go on a crazy good run to finish the season, but it is looking pretty bleak.

I've said this in a few threads and there will be time to discuss more in the offseason, but I think our GM showed a fundamental misunderstanding of our competitive position in making those trades (pretty much confirmed by the odds above) and we are a weaker organization because of it. IMO, it is one of the poorest series of moves made by an Os GM in many years.

[Frobby]

September 16

Boston, Cleveland and Oakland went 3-0, Detroit, Tampa and Baltimore went 2-1, Kansas City went 1-2, and New York and Texas went 0-3. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 92-59 98-64 100.% 100.%

TBR 81-67 89-73 71.1% 00.0%

BAL 79-70 85-77 05.6% 00.0%

NYY 79-71 85-77 04.5% 00.0%

DET 86-63 95-67 99.9% 99.1%

CLE 81-68 88-74 54.4% 00.9%

KCR 78-71 85-77 04.3% 00.0%

OAK 88-61 95-67 100.% 99.4%

TEX 81-67 89-73 60.2% 00.6%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Cleveland's odds took a quantum leap from 22.1% to 54.4%, as they swept the White Sox while the Rangers were getting swept by Oakland, moving them within a half-game of the Rangers (and Tampa, which went 2-1).

[Frobby]

September 20

Detroit went 3-1, Baltimore and Kansas City went 2-1, Tampa, Cleveland, Oakland and Texas went 2-2, and New York and Boston went 1-2. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 93-61 98-64 100.% 100.%

TBR 83-69 89-73 70.0% 00.0%

BAL 81-71 86-76 09.0% 00.0%

NYY 80-73 84-78 01.0% 00.0%

DET 89-64 95-67 100.% 99.9%

CLE 83-70 88-74 49.0% 00.1%

KCR 80-72 85-77 04.0% 00.0%

OAK 90-63 95-67 100.% 99.7%

TEX 83-69 89-73 67.1% 00.3%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

It's interesting that, although Texas and Tampa have identical records and just split four games, Tampa's playoff odds went slightly down and Texas' odds went up compared to where they were just prior to that series.