Jump to content

Revisiting Duquettes' second half moves


Frobby

Recommended Posts

Forget the 25 M. It's the 100M ceiling. Which player can we afford to extend given that constraint? Doing nothing we will be at about 90M. Adding 10M to extend Manny pretty much does it, and that's before you resign BRob. and McLouth. If you want to extend Davis, it will cost a lot more than that per year, Wieters will come close to that, and besides neither of them will want to extend.

Manny is not making 10M next year. Try 500k. He is not arbitration eligible. Davis gets 11-13M next year. His long term contract get his to 20-22M in a few years. Nick has one year left on his 15M but after that his salary will drop. Here is a swag:

O's projected 2014 salaries without major additions.

1) 15m Markakis -RF

2) 13m Jones – CF

3) 11m Davis – 1B

4) 9m Wieters - C

5) 7m Hardy - SS

6) 7m J Johnson or replacement – Closer/RP1

7) 7m McLouth - LF

8) 6m Norris – SP1

9) 6m Feldman – SP2

10) 4.072m Chen – SP3

11) 3.2m O'Day – RP2

12) 3m Hunter – RP3

13) 2.5m Matusz – RP4

14) 1.8m Patton – RP5

15) 1.5m Roberts – SHARE 2B

16) .52m Tillman – SP4

17) .52m Valencia - RHDH

18) .51m Gonzalez – SP5

19) .5m Machado – 3B

20) .5m Flaherty – SHARE 2B

21) .5m Clevenger/Snyder/Teagarden – BU C

22) .5m Stinson – RP6

23) .5m Urrutia or ? – LHDH/LF

24) .5m S Johnson or ?– RP7

25) .5m TBD righthanded OF – RF vs Lefties

Total 102.122m

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 127
  • Created
  • Last Reply
You have to be very careful with this. Every single team has an extra $25 mm to spend just like we do. As a result, the free agents in this class will probably be grossly overpaid by teams that aren't thinking long-term. For me, the best use of the extra funds is to lock up the players we want to keep who are already here. That's not to say we shouldn't acquire some players through free agency or tradess, I'm just saying we need to realize that player contracts are going to get more expensive with the same overall supply of talent and more dollars chasing those players, and we should get ahead of that curve. I think Boston already did that by locking up Pedroia even though he was already under contract through 2015, and Tampa did it by locking up Longoria even though he was already under contract through 2016. That's how we need to be thinking. I'd rather spend money on Manny Machado than some random free agent.
Manny is the best bet to extend. But to save money to spend this winter they might put it off for another year. Forget Wieters and Davis. Possibly resigning McLouth and/or Roberts if they take less than 5M per. After that maybe some bullpen arms and/or some trades.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Manny is not making 10M next year. Try 500k. He is not arbitration eligible. Davis gets 11-13M next year. His long term contract get his to 20-22M in a few years. Nick has one year left on his 15M but after that his salary will drop. Here is a swag:

O's projected 2014 salaries without major additions.

1) 15m Markakis -RF

2) 13m Jones – CF

3) 11m Davis – 1B

4) 9m Wieters - C

5) 7m Hardy - SS

6) 7m J Johnson or replacement – Closer/RP1

7) 7m McLouth - LF

8) 6m Norris – SP1

9) 6m Feldman – SP2

10) 4.072m Chen – SP3

11) 3.2m O'Day – RP2

12) 3m Hunter – RP3

13) 2.5m Matusz – RP4

14) 1.8m Patton – RP5

15) 1.5m Roberts – SHARE 2B

16) .52m Tillman – SP4

17) .52m Valencia - RHDH

18) .51m Gonzalez – SP5

19) .5m Machado – 3B

20) .5m Flaherty – SHARE 2B

21) .5m Clevenger/Snyder/Teagarden – BU C

22) .5m Stinson – RP6

23) .5m Urrutia or ? – LHDH/LF

24) .5m S Johnson or ?– RP7

25) .5m TBD righthanded OF – RF vs Lefties

Total 102.122m

Subtract McLouth and Feldman. Neither are locks and certainly not McLouth at 7.M. That brings it back to 89M. If you want to extend Manny you will have to offer him around 10M. that makes it 99 M. Get it?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is a swag:

O's projected 2014 salaries without major additions.

1) 15m Markakis -RF

2) 13m Jones – CF

3) 11m Davis – 1B

4) 9m Wieters - C

5) 7m Hardy - SS

6) 7m J Johnson or replacement – Closer/RP1

7) 7m McLouth - LF

8) 6m Norris – SP1

9) 6m Feldman – SP2

10) 4.072m Chen – SP3

11) 3.2m O'Day – RP2

12) 3m Hunter – RP3

13) 2.5m Matusz – RP4

14) 1.8m Patton – RP5

15) 1.5m Roberts – SHARE 2B

16) .52m Tillman – SP4

17) .52m Valencia - RHDH

18) .51m Gonzalez – SP5

19) .5m Machado – 3B

20) .5m Flaherty – SHARE 2B

21) .5m Clevenger/Snyder/Teagarden – BU C

22) .5m Stinson – RP6

23) .5m Urrutia or ? – LHDH/LF

24) .5m S Johnson or ?– RP7

25) .5m TBD righthanded OF – RF vs Lefties

Total 102.122m

On the bolded players:

I don't see Wieters getting $9 mm. More like $7 mm.

McLouth I think will be a little lower, $5-6 mm.

Norris I think will be a little lower, $5 mm.

Roberts I think will be a little higher, $2-2.5 mm.

Clearly, we'd be close to $100 mm if we just stood pat. I don't think Duq will be constrained to that, considering attendance up ~250,000 (probably $8-10 mm in revenue) plus the extra $25 mm in TV money. I'm sure not all of that will go to payroll, but I'd think a noticeable increase will appear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subtract McLouth and Feldman. Neither are locks and certainly not McLouth at 7.M. That brings it back to 89M. If you want to extend Manny you will have to offer him around 10M. that makes it 99 M. Get it?

There is no way Manny makes 10m next year. Extend him, don't extend him. It doesn't matter. He will probably get 500k. At most in an extension he get <1m.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the bolded players:

I don't see Wieters getting $9 mm. More like $7 mm.

McLouth I think will be a little lower, $5-6 mm.

Norris I think will be a little lower, $5 mm.

Roberts I think will be a little higher, $2-2.5 mm.

Clearly, we'd be close to $100 mm if we just stood pat. I don't think Duq will be constrained to that, considering attendance up ~250,000 (probably $8-10 mm in revenue) plus the extra $25 mm in TV money. I'm sure not all of that will go to payroll, but I'd think a noticeable increase will appear.

Why do you assume that Roberts, McLouth, and Feldman, will be brought back? Feldman would get more than 6M as a FA IMO. If you don't resign them, you are under 90M and that gives DD wiggle room to add some cheap pieces. I think they'll make low ball offers to Roberts and McLouth, and go in house if they turn them down. The only major expense IMO would be if they extend Manny. Don't think the payroll will be much over 100M. Adding the pieces we really need would take it much closer to 120M.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is no way Manny makes 10m next year. Extend him, don't extend him. It doesn't matter. He will probably get 500k. At most in an extension he get <1m.
Maybe not 10 M next year, but 10 M on average over 7-8 years. And if that is the case then he is getting a lot more than 5K next year.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the Feldman trade was fine.

The K-Rod for Delmonico trade made no sense to me at the time, and still makes no sense. Delmonico is a very solid position prospect, and I don't agree that he "took a step back" this season. A .769 OPS is completely respectable for a 20 year old in A+ ball, positional issues notwithstanding.

The Norris trade was about more than this season. And I think too many people are ignoring the value of the comp pick - it's almost like having traded Hunter Harvey plus Hoes and Hader. If Norris pitches will for two more years, though, that's probably a good deal. Can't evaluate this one yet.

The Morse trade was fine because Avery was not much of a loss. I didn't like it a lot, because I've never been a fan of Michael Morse, but I didn't have a problem with the trade.

We traded our comp pick which will probably be around pick number 34-40 (I'm not sure of the exact number). That's the equivalent of a 2nd round pick and you can look at our history of 2nd round picks to see that's not quite the value of the 22nd overall pick. Your point is valid that there is a value to that pick, but I don't think it's "almost like" Hunter Harvey. It's more like we traded Josh Hart along with Hader and Hoes.

AS for Norris, I'm a bit non-committal about him after seeing him now with the Orioles. First of all, I'm always concerned with two-pitch starters and that's basically what Norris is since he rarely throws his changeup and it's not very good. I really think this is a pitch he needs to develop to turn the corner. The Orioles should work with him to find a better grip or something he can command better because right now, if he can't bury that slider at the back foot of the lefty, he struggles to get them out. This is part of the reason why it takes him so many pitches to get through stuff. His fastball-slider combo is pretty solid, and honestly, I could see him being a pretty decent bullpen guy or even closer, but he's be more of a 4th/5th starter with his current repertoire. Now is that better than running out dregs like Jurrjenns and Garcia, absolutely, but we have to temper our expectations of him. He's a bulldog guy and can gut out performances without imploding, but he's more of a back of the rotation guy with an upside of a 3rd starter if he can find an effective go to pitch against lefties (maybe K-rod can work with him?).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like you are talking about a signing bonus to sign an extension. That is possible.
If you wait until Manny is arb eligible he will cost you more than 10M a year to extend. Lets be conservative and say his extension costs us 5M next year. That means there will be a trade off between signing one of Roberts and McLouth or Feldman. Cant have then all.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why do you assume that Roberts, McLouth, and Feldman, will be brought back? Feldman would get more than 6M as a FA IMO. If you don't resign them, you are under 90M and that gives DD wiggle room to add some cheap pieces. I think they'll make low ball offers to Roberts and McLouth, and go in house if they turn them down. The only major expense IMO would be if they extend Manny. Don't think the payroll will be much over 100M. Adding the pieces we really need would take it much closer to 120M.

I'm not assuming any of them will be back, just commenting on wildcard's projected salaries for these players. I have no idea of those guys will be back or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you wait until Manny is arb eligible he will cost you more than 10M a year to extend. Lets be conservative and say his extension costs us 5M next year. That means there will be a trade off between signing one of Roberts and McLouth or Feldman. Cant have then all.

Manny is going to cost what Manny is going to cost. If he turns out to be 200 hit per year, 100 rbi guy he will get

Year 1 (this year) -500k

2 - 500k

3 - 500K

4- 5m

5- 11m

6 - 16m

7 and on - 20 to 22m

That's 113 over 10 years.

If they sign him to an extension this off season do you think giving him a bonus will change that? Plus there is the risk that he never becomes that player.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This all goes back to some of the points I made before about DD and Buck being on the same page. I had no problem dealing for KRod but I do now because of the way Buck has used him. Same thing with Morse, why add the guy if he isn't going to play? The only trade that can really hurt us is giving up Delmonico. Norris is here for 2 more seasons and the other players needed a change of scenery.

Spot on post. It was obvious Buck didn't approve the Krod deal. So he didn't play, he should have replaced JJ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Manny is going to cost what Manny is going to cost. If he turns out to be 200 hit per year, 100 rbi guy he will get

Year 1 (this year) -500k

2 - 500k

3 - 500K

4- 5m

5- 11m

6 - 16m

7 and on - 20 to 22m

That's 113 over 10 years.

If they sign him to an extension this off season do you think giving him a bonus will change that? Plus there is the risk that he never becomes that player.

I'm not sure what your point is, but if we don't extend him, barring catastrophe, he will cost us at least 30 M over the next 5 years. Look at it from his point of view. He will make much more as a FA at 26 then at 29. So he will want to be compensated for giving up 2-3 years of FA. Any way the payroll will be about 90 M if we don't do anything next year, so you start from there and work up to 100M. It won't go much past that.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
    • I’m saying the Os had an agreement with MLB and that should have held up.  Been pretty clear about that. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...